Date | Prior | Current | Rating | |
PMI Mfg_M/M | Dec-21 | 57.80 | 57.70 | C |
PMI Svc_M/M | Dec-21 | 57.50 | 57.60 | C |
ISM Mfg_M/M | Dec-21 | 61.10 | 58.70 | C |
ISM Svc_M/M | Dec-22 | 69.10 | 62.00 | C |
Factory Orders_M/M | Nov-22 | 1 | 1.6 | C+ |
Construction Spending_M/M | Nov-21 | 0.20 | 0.40 | C+ |
Job Openings(Jolts)_M/M | Nov-22 | 11.033M | 10.562M | C |
RedBook_W/W | 1/1/2022 | 21.40 | 18.80 | C+ |
Jobless Claims_W/W | 1/1/2022 | 198K | 207K | C |
Employment Situation_M/M | Dec-22 | 210K | 199K | C- |
Somewhat lite in quantity, but important stuff here.
Again, the Emplyment Situation was well below expecations, coming in at a relatively anemic 199 vs consensus of 400K. Private Sector was 211, so public payroll continutes to contract. Participation was up a tic to 61.9, but remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. The "Best" part of this is that it may soften the Fed's hawkish position, but with inflation at these levels, they really have little to no choice.
ISM moderated significantly, but remains at very high levels. Will that continue?
Jobless Claims remain historically low.
Job Openings dropped by about a half million. It's concerning that the drop far outpaces the job creation which suggests to me that employers are canceling positions. Are they finding alternatives or is their need contracting? Neither bodes well. Voluntary quits set a record at 4.5 million.
Factory Orders showed a nice gain which may be the best news of the week. Bears watching.
Construction spending also showed a gain, primariliy in residential. Also good news. worth noting, Both metrics are from November.
The grades warrant a C for the week, and I hope I am not being generous. If I were forced to say, I'd say we are staring stagflation in the face.