For ngq, 2.750 is major support that held on Friday.......but we are theatening to break it Tuesday.

Natural gas is BREAKING the uptrend line from the Dec 2017 lows, just above 2.6,  connecting to the higher lows in Feb. just below 2.7, then the higher lows in May at 2.727.

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below

Naturalgas10years below

Storage is near the bottom of the 5 year average and over 700 billion cubic feet less than a year ago!

These temperatures below cover the period for this last EIA report  It was a hot week! The next one will not be so hot.

Below, they are broken down into Highs/Lows for the same 7 day period:

The temperatures below cover the period that will be reported from the EIA this next Thursday. Heat out west across the Plains to the Upper Midwest. A bit cool in the East.....larger build than last week!

Seasonals based on historical prices..........this graph is pretty old.

Broke 2.750 as suspected, lows from yesterday are 2.735. If next GFS is cool, we might get below there.

Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Cooler Weather Helps Drag Down Natural Gas Futures as Production Keeping Bears in Control

     Natural gas futures continued their recent slide Tuesday as strong production and cooler weather trends conspired to help drag down prices. In the spot market, more volatility in Southern California and retreating prices in the Northeast headlined a day of generally small adjustments; the NGI National Spot Gas Average gave back a penny to finish at $2.74/MMBtu

Too much noise with all your past weather charts of what was a week or more ago. Maps showing weather anomolies on 7/6/18, don't mean anything for what is happening on 7/13. Old news and no longer relevant. Nor do they provide the prognosis for the upcoming week. Love your willingness to provide data. But some of it is beyond the tiime of being useful. Not trying to be insulting or degrading. 

Mark,

 I guess you realize this but to clarify for those who don’t, Mike is showing the week starting July 6th because he is giving perspective on expectations for the upcoming weekly EIA report vs the prior EIA. He’s showing that the EIA week starting 7/6 was much cooler than the prior EIA week and that he expects a larger injection as a result. In theory, you’re correct because this all should have been dialed in a couple of weeks ago as NG largely looks at upcoming 2 week periods. In theory, EIA report expectations should largely have been dialed in ~1-2 weeks before the week that the EIA report covers. But it does give an idea about where tomorrow’s EIA report should be and whether or not the actual number turns out to be neutral, bearish, or bullish/whether or not short term supply/demand balance tightness appears to have changed. In other words, whereas EIA report expectations should have been largely dialed in a couple of weeks back, the actual EIA vs expectations cannot possibly be dialed in until sometime after the report is released. Some of that is reflected by knee jerk reactions immediately after the report is released.

 By the way,despite this week’s EIA report being based on a 16 CDD cooler week, it may very well not show a significantly larger injection because the prior week was a demand softened holiday week.