Thanks Wayne,

Great thoughts. I understand your feelings.

Personally, I'm not as focused on the material things in our world. Doing so means having  our happiness tied to that world.

I really don't care that my vehicle is 20 years old(my wife has a new car).

I've been busy preparing the rosters, and schedules and email lists for the chess clubs at 5 schools and almost 200 children that I will be coaching the next 5 months.

I had to jump thru a few new COVID protocol hoops(split some schools into 2 teams with half the students that meet every other week to keep the numbers/team down)

What would life be like if we were living 160 years ago during the Civil War era.........or even prior to that during most of human history?

Both of us would have had extremely simple lives. 

Knowing both of our medical histories, neither of us would be alive at our age either. Back then, without antibiotics, people died from infections from a cut(no antibiotics). There were no vaccines to protect us from diseases.

I like to try to maximize the opportunities the internet, technology and scientific advancements give us today vs just when we were kids and think about it every day.

 I apologize for taking the topic into a different realm but its what I always think when topics like this come up. 

Mike, have you seen the Queen's Gambit on Netflix....if it's still there.  As a chess guy, you would find it very interesting.  It's a great mini series overall, but since you are a chess guy, it will entertain you a bit more.  

Thanks.

Several people have mentioned it but I still haven't seen it.

Not everybody has material  wants other than daily or weekly living requirements. This varies from one to another. Example: Do you rent, do you own a car etc.

But many want material things and are willing to have debt for material things today.

So we go to our handy google for some basic facts

90% of Americians have at least one credit card

Debit cards are more popular

176 million americians hold at least one credit card

44.6% have an unpaid balance at the end of the month, every month of the yr.

Average unpaid balance is 5313.00 and a credit score of 710

 44.6% carry unpaid balances from month to month

The average house mortgage int rate is 3.14% The Fed could decide to taper which means buying less market assets or the Fed could raise int rates if the powers that be, decide inflation is a problem that will not go away. Powell has indicated that inflation may be a problem but wants to wait and see what really happens.

You may be in the camp that thinks inflation will not be a problem but many think inflation will be a problem

I think, if memory serves me well, prices double every 11 yrs if inflation is approx 4% and a bit

Most think the true rate of inflation today is closer to 10%

That means prices will double every 5 yrs or less and then double again in less than 5 yrs

A food product today costs 2.00. In 5 yrs it costs 4.00 In 10 yrs it costs 8.00. Golly what else increased with inflation???

A house bought today for 300,000 will cost 1.2 million in 10 yrs using the above example

Do you think most people are ready for inflation such as I have explained

The MM of the world will be mostly okay except the daily living cost will be much more

Can the economy stand such a rate of inflation or are most consumers priced out of the market and the economy starts to shut down. 

Stagflation is the word and most people don't have a clue what happens in 5 or 10 yrs but it won't be very good for most citizens. I am willing to bet that EV will speed up this inflation process until some day, very soon, we find out EV is killing the economy. That could be as soon as 4 yrs or less.

The heck of it is. Most can't do a darn thing to be prepared, except a life of poverty, some day soon. . Perhaps in a tent on the side walk

I don't want to be a Debbie Downer but does anybody see a bright future for this country, going forward??? Will the world be affected to the same degree. I am willing to guess the world might be affected more or at least as much.

The majority of people think like I do but what if we are wrong??

What would have to happen for a good/better future.

   Please educate me.

Mike, I think you have your priorities in the right order ! I think it's great that you are helping the kids with chess ! i agree that you need to watch the Queen's gambit. I was hooked on it. By the way, today was day 9 in the world chess championship between Magnus Carlsen and Nepo. Very interesting to watch them play.

Wayne,

I’m in total agreement with you on all that stuff.

Add in the astronomical cost of healthcare too.

Our government has totally mismanaged the finances of our country.

The massive national deb is like a boat with the anchor down.....and the anchor getting heavier every year. 

Just the interest on the debt is hurting. Higher interest rates are very bad news. When it gets to the point of causing serious consequences....it will be far too late to do anything to stop the momentum.

And most consumers act the same way with their money. You sited all the debt. It’s a way of life.

The only good thing about debt is mortgage debt locked in at low rates.

However, as you noted, money earned in the past and saved is losing value because of inflation.

Owning  a house is a good thing if your house increases in value but that probably is less than inflation.

My crappy  car gets me where I want to go and insurance is dirt cheap. 

The newer your car, the faster it loses value and the higher the insurance rate to cover something of higher value.

It’s unreasonable to expect others to drive crummy cars or think like me on spending but it’s good for everybody to remember that as bad as it might get.....if you went back to 1861 in a time machine and spent a week there, you would appreciate more that the richest people of that day Were totally deficient in many of  the things that enrich and extend our lives in 2021!

Think about farming back then!

There were no machines to plant or harvest....or massive fertilizers/chemical applications to boost yields. No irrigation or tiling to control soil moisture. 

Think of all the work to turn forest into farm land.

Horses , mules and human muscles were the power.

Then, sunshine and rain. Even the CO2 was 130 parts per million lower which meant 25% less yields just because of that key  factor being so deficient. All Plants were seriously CO2 starved in the 1800s.

The weather for crop growing the last several decades has been the best in at least 1,000 years.

Most people farmed in those days but couldn’t raise crops much bigger than what their own family needed.

Today, huge farms have enough production to feed many thousand of people and animals from just 1 farm!

We're all in trouble. 

gdp growth rates have been getting weaker, and weaker for decades.  this is due to ... too much debt, too much bureaucracy, too much taxation, and too much socialism, and even too much military spending.  

govts and central banks print and spend too much money, and end up debasing the currency.  as growth gets weak, and the printing and spending increase, you eventually end up like argentina, or turkey, or mexico.  higher inflation, and lower growth, and a worse standard of living.  

trump, at least, cut taxes,  but he did not cut spending.   (so debt went up,  which is bad).  

biden has not proposed anything that will solve this problem.  

the only way to solve this problem is to balance the budget year after year, and keep taxes low.  

lower taxes, less spending, less debt, and less bureaucracy for 40 years would solve the problem.  but it would be hard to swallow that medicine.  

no one in washington is willing to push for this kind of extreme austerity.