USDA's next reports are due on Tuesday, and the trade expects U.S. corn yield down slightly and soybean yield higher than last month. Area changes are also on the table again this month.
U.S. ending stocks for corn and soybeans are seen increasing over last month's estimates, largely based on the Sep. 1 stocks data published Sep. 30. Soybeans could get back into the 300 mbu range, while wheat could dip below 600 mbu.
No changes to old- or new-crop #corn production in South America. #Brazil's #soybeans are unchanged but #Argentina's new soy harvest was reduced and the old one given a bump.
Actually, this yield would be sandwiched between 2017 and 2018 for the top three yields of all time. 2017- 176.6 2021- 176.5 2018- 176.4 Will this crop ultimately end up better than 2017? Or worse than 2018? One or the other is bound to happen.
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U.S. #corn yield is estimated at 176.5 bu/acre, close to expectations and just shy of 2017's high of 176.6. The increase in Iowa and reduction in Illinois were likely expected. Mixed adjustments in other states.
2021/22 stocks-to-use for U.S. #soybeans is seen at 7.3%, about the same as in 2016/17 but higher than in any of the 9 years prior to that. A bigger 2020 crop boosted 20/21 s/u to 5.7%. It was predicted at 2.6% earlier in the year - about tied with 13/14 for lowest ever.
Now I'm labeling the mixed cases, which include 2019 and 2017. Both corn & soy yields are more likely than not to be higher in the end when Oct was higher than Sep, and Sep was higher than Aug (what happened this year). USDA was closest to final on both yields in October 2003.