China's power/electricity needs
5 responses | 0 likes
Started by wglassfo - Sept. 30, 2021, 1:47 p.m.

After china experienced rolling black out's just recently and shutting down or slowing down factory use of electricity, china held an emergency meeting and decided rolling black outs, factory slow downs simply was not acceptable.

So china ordered all state own factories to buy energy, no matter what the cost. Does this include state suppliers of electricity to millions of consumers, I don't know but one would think this especially applies to electricity for home heating this coming winter

What I don't know, if China is willing to buy and use coal as an energy source, but my thinking is: there is simply not enough available oil and NG in the world to supply not only China but the U.K. and other users of oil and gas. OPEC seems in no mood to increase supplies, having figured out that higher prices for their oil is much better than pumping more cheap oil. Makes sense.  When Biden went to Saudi, asked then to pump more oil, they said no. Do the Saudis just not like Biden or have they decided they can get along with out americian parts and such for armaments. I don't know what happened, but Biden got a face slapping. Poor guy can't win at any thing he tries but golly he did commission an investigation into what happened to his ice cream. [I ramble a bit] SO: unless coal is included in the mix, the bidding war would be insane. Coal has already doubled in price so some body is buying coal, and blue skies or not I think China will be forced to burn coal. This energy crisis will only intensify as the world moves out of covid restrictions. It seems the USA and Canada lag in post covid activities

And Biden wants to shut down fossil fuel use age in the USA. Where will Biden find the energy needed. Is Biden going to enter the bidding war for cleaner oil and NG. Will OPEC come to his rescue?? No way on OPEC. 1st we will see much higher pump gas prices and then Biden has to decide what to do. Poor guy. No matter what he decides there will be a huge back lash and his polls might go into single digits. Who voted for this guy any way??

China  needs a huge amount of energy. I thought China had domestic supplies of coal but if major users of energy all start to bid for oil and NG can you image how insane the price will get. Johnson, in the UK won't let his people freeze, this winter. Others will bid for energy. China will bid what ever it takes. Germany will make a deal with Russia

 Golly can you imaging what this decision by china will do for commodity markets, or maybe just energy markets

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 30, 2021, 2:02 p.m.
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Global Natural Gas Rally Continues as Fears Grow Over Winter Energy Shortages — LNG Recap

 Natural gas prices across the world climbed higher on Tuesday, fueled by the prospect that there will be energy shortages from Europe to Asia this winter.  British and Dutch benchmarks closed higher Tuesday, beating an all-time record set Monday after finishing close to $30/MMBtu. In the United States, prices also continued climbing toward $6 as… 


metmike: That's exactly what happens when you shut down coal plants and focus all your attention on FAKE green energy.......wind and solar. CO2 from fossil fuels is  massively greening up  the planet. How would this NOT happen above?

Fake beer crisis/Death by GREENING!           

                  Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/


How we generate electricity                                      

                Started by madmechanic - Aug. 7, 2021, 2:17 p.m.         

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73293/

   

                Wind/ solar/batteries            

                            16 responses |               

                Started by metmike - May 6, 2021, 9:58 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69028/


Green energy            

                            Started by wglassfo - June 9, 2021, 12:48 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70725/

By metmike - Sept. 30, 2021, 2:03 p.m.
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They are referring to global prices because storage was drawn down by last year's cold Winter and idiots are discouraging fossil fuels, which has defeated attempts to build storage to safe/needed levels. Record global prices are just more incentive to increase exports out of the US.

Citi Isn’t Ruling Out Natural Gas at $100 in a Frigid Winter

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-isn-t-ruling-natural-072832568.html

"Liquefied natural gas prices are skyrocketing as seasonally low European inventories, booming Chinese demand and supply constraints from Russia to Nigeria lead to a bidding war for the power generation feedstock before the northern hemisphere winter. Japan-Korea marker prices have jumped almost 50% so far this month to near $30 per mmBtu, while in Europe LNG is up around 40% to close to $25. Price gains in the U.S. have been more subdued.

Average prices next quarter will be moderately higher than current levels in Citi’s base case, the bank said in the note. However, there are likely to be price spikes and if unusually cold weather boosts demand and hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico disrupt supplies, cargoes could trade in the $100 per mmBtu range, or $580 a barrel in oil-equivalent terms, it said.

See also: China Begins Winter Gas Buying Spree at the Worst Possible Time

“Global natural gas prices could continue to go parabolic in the coming weeks and months,” Citi analysts said in the note. “Strong demand and a lack of supply response have sharply tightened the market. Any surprise demand surge or supply disruptions could propel price further upward.”

The ripple effects from the surge in gas prices into other fuels also look wider than initially thought, Citi said. Switching to liquefied petroleum gas for heating will influence naphtha and gasoline, greater use of kerosene will affect jet fuel and diesel prices, while fuel oil will play a bigger role in electricity generation, it said. However the LNG rally will fade -- prices could drop 70% by the third quarter of next year from this winter’s levels, the bank said."


By wglassfo - Sept. 30, 2021, 2:10 p.m.
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When China decided to bid what ever it took for energy, one might think this is a reckless policy. 

However, one has to remember that china has a huge war chest of USD. China has run trade surplus with the USA for ever, it seems. 

What better way to use surplus USD than to buy a needed commodity such as energy. That rainy day acct.  of treasuries the chinese have accumulated will now be used for some thing other than treasuries that china has accumulated but did not want to sell for fear of upsetting the FX market. China did not want to sell with no buyer.

Well now those USD will circulate in the world market as china buys a commodity. There will be willing sellers and buyers with out any danger of the FX market  being affected to any great degree. USD will simply rotate from buyer  to seller in a some what orderly manner, or at least that must be the hope for china

By joelund - Sept. 30, 2021, 2:22 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 30, 2021, 2:25 p.m.
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Thanks Joe!


Here's more:


                Crude and unleaded            

                            11 responses |            

                Started by Jim_M - Sept. 28, 2021, 6:24 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75526/