September 15, 2021 9:07 am
Here is some good science about the SSW’s(Sudden Stratospheric Warming’s) that often trigger this pattern.
Some things to keep in mind:
- Global warming has warmed the highest latitudes/coldest places the most during the coldest times of year. This means that the reservoir of extreme cold building in the Arctic in Winter is LESS cold because of global warming. This means that Arctic blasts into the mid latitudes will be LESS cold. It’s hard to rationalize why the condition causing extreme cold to be LESS extreme, is causing MORE extreme cold in the mid latitudes.
- Until you can identify the NATURAL factors that caused the exact same patterns that led to extreme cold outbreaks in the past(some even colder), before global warming…. and rule them out AFTER global warming, it must be assumed to be caused by the same NATURAL factors that have always caused extreme cold intrusions into the mid latitudes. Dugh!
Has global warming influenced sudden stratospheric warmings in either hemisphere or is it projected to? "Butler: For the Northern Hemisphere, the short answer is that there’s been no robust trend in SSWs observed, though there is significant variation from decade to decade, with some periods like the 1990s showing almost no SSWs and others, like the 2000s, showing one almost every year. In the future, climate models do not agree about what will happen in a warmer climate. Some show significant strengthening of the polar vortex while others show weakening."