Thanks Jim!

This is a huge deal right now!

  https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75

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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W

        Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

          Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast).  

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

Crude Stockpile Fell 3.234 Million Barrels: EIA

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-stockpile-fell-3234-million-barrels-eia-2593346

Investing.com -- U.S. oil stockpiles fell by more than expected  in the latest week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories dropped by 3.234 million  barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 1.055 million barrels.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, declined 2.697 million barrels in the week against expectations for a build of 276,000 barrels, the EIA data showed.

Gasolineinventories rose 696,000 barrels last week the EIA said, compared with expectations for a draw of 1.671 million barrels

  Oil steadies as U.S. crude drawdown faces COVID-19 surge

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-edges-lower-as-spread-of-delta-variant-clouds-prospects-for-demand-2592751

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday after four straight days of declines, helped by a bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, though investors remain worried about the outlook for fuel demand due to a global surge in COVID-19 cases. 

Brent crude was down 3 cents to $69 a barrel by 10:42 a.m. EDT (1442 GMT). U.S. WTI crude oil lost 21 cents to $66.38 a barrel.  

U.S. crude inventories fell 3.2 million barrels last week to 435.5 million barrels, their lowest since January 2020 and more than anticipated. Gasoline stocks, however, rose modestly, which kept the market from moving up given ongoing worries about coronavirus. [EIA/S] 

"The market is being dragged down on a disappointing gasoline inventory build as we make our way into the Labor Day weekend," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, Texas, referring to the Sept.6 U.S. holiday. 

 The four-week average of overall product supplied to the market - a measure of demand - was 20.8 million barrels per day, in line with pre-coronavirus levels from 2019. 

 U.S. crude production rose to 11.4 million bpd, though weekly figures are volatile. Shale oil production, which accounts for most of U.S. output, is expected to rise to 8.1 million bpd in September, highest since April 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration's monthly drilling output report.

Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts:

All the energies have historically been very strong at this time of year, with a seasonal top in October. But there are always big exceptions to seasonals for individual years. This is just the tendency when you look at the 30 year period below(which was almost a decade ago)

https://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_rohoel.html

Crude Oil

Here are the latest gas prices across the country:

https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4&lng=-96.591588&lat=38.10118167223963

Why are west coast gasoline prices higher?

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-west-coast-gasoline-prices-higher

The two main reasons are transportation and taxes. Part of the cost of gasoline is what it costs to take refined product and transport it to the end user. Below is a map of the main refineries and pipeline in North America.

You can see that the west coast has a much smaller amount of infrastructure than other parts of the map. As a result, more of your gasoline is refined in places that require it to be shipped by transportation.

The second reason is that the states on the West Coast have used fuel taxes more than the average.

If you add to that state requirements about how the gasoline is blended based on the various state environmental air quality and emissions standards, you can tweak the price again. The addition of MTBE or ethanol seasonally, further adds cost to a gallon.

Both coast tax their gasoline beyond the norm. Add to that in California they require 2 to 3 times as many fuel mixes as any other state which increases the cost again.

The rig count continues to climb higher but still way below 18+ months ago.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs

I didn’t see anything in today’s report or over the last 10 reports that, in my mind, would have justified a dollar drop today.  100k bpd increase in US production is a drop in the proverbial bucket.

If this had been a couple years ago, we would have been up $3 today.

crude moves in waves from over-bought to over-sold. Each time it moves, it does not need a specific reason. The hedge funds pushed it as high as they could toward $80 and now they are pushing it the other way. One day it will bottom and then they push it back up. 

We just dropped thru super/mega support at $65.

Not a good sign.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

I see that.  Impressive. Something has to be going on that we will find out later tonight or tomorrow.

Could just be COVID news. 

And sometimes, dips below key support that get above it again are buying opportunities, with a stop below the lows.

I don't use that strategy and don't suggest it here but remember it from this book that I read over 2 decades ago.

Anybody ever read this book?

I trade fundamentals but found it pretty amazing.

https://www.amazon.com/Street-Smarts-Probability-Short-Term-Strategies/dp/0965046109

Down almost $3 from the high today. Below major support? There is some bad covid mojo going on or something.  And I heard some Republican floating impeaching Biden over Afghanistan.  Who ever really knows.

Pushing to impeach Biden over Afghanistan could never work and would make the republicans look really bad.

He made a bad decision(exiting strategy) about a really, really good decision(getting out).

It would be one thing if most people agreed that we should stay there indefinitely and never leave. 

This will quiet down and he will get in 10's of thousands of extra Afghans..........probably much more.

https://www.state.gov/refugee-admissions/

 U.S. Refugee Admissions Program Priority 2 Designation for Afghan Nationals  

Fact Sheet

Office of the Spokesperson

August 2, 2021

https://www.state.gov/u-s-refugee-admissions-program-priority-2-designation-for-afghan-nationals/

I believe I heard section 25 as well.  Of course that means Harris would become President

Yes, Harris would be president.

I always thought it was really dumb for the democrats to impeach Trump and hope the senate went with the house but they knew it wouldn't happen.

This would have meant Pence as president and a good chance that we would have a President Pence today.

Maybe 10 million of the never Trump votes, would have been good with Mike Pence. I believe it.......at least vs the very weak Biden.

But Biden would NEVER get impeached over this and shouldn't be and the last thing republicans would want is Harris as president(I think).

On the southern border fiasco, he is lying and misleading us about the entire thing. I don't think its impeachable and no way any dems would go along with it but if there was a reason.......THAT would be a better one.

Good topic for us to start on the NTR forum.

I read it years ago.  I remember that trade strategy specifically.  I think I'll give it a reread.  

Thanks joj!

If I remember, it was a very short term strategy and no longer valid days later, like this.......if we would get back above $65 for instance. 

And the sell stop below the lows would be way too much here anyways, which would be sub $62.50.

Buying above $65 on strength here, would be an entirely different trade actually, based on thinking the lows were in after recovering from the bottom below $62.50 vs the first idea, which would be more of a fake, bearish break out below $65 support that failed as we quickly bounced back above $65.

The first trade might risk $250. With a good risk/reward dynamic. 

The 2nd one, might risk $2,500(if you used a sell stop below the lows/less than $62.50) which would make the risk reward totally not worth it.