How people re-act when the economy opens
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Started by wglassfo - July 28, 2021, 2:28 a.m.

Had to go to our local small city today. Since we have been mostly house bound due to covid, we had several things we wanted to do. . We are essential workers but when the stores are closed, it is hard to do very much

Well: Our country is slowly opening the door to business, so we went shopping for some badly needed appliances etc. Time was short after our appointment, and we arrived at the appliance store just at closing time. We asked if the sales person wanted to close up for the day. He said the way business has been as of lately, he would stay as long as needed

We ordered out of a book, nothing on the floor we wanted to look at, but ordered a stove top and oven, a clothes drier and clothes washer, all paid for with no time of arrival. We just trust what my wife was able to find on the internet for information and it is built in the USA. Good enough for me. My wife had the questions. I walked out before my wife paid the bill as I did not want to know. I will get around to asking some day. Whirl pool assembles in the USA from parts made in china or where ever. Our appliance is actually built in the USA.

Then to celebrate our day of freedom, we went to a sit down restaurant. Ordered a steak dinner. Not really a steak house but what the heck. I noticed our waitress had 4 tables, with two at each table, in her 1/2 of the restaurant   and it was peak time for dinner or supper hour, which ever you call it. So 8 tables with customers that has at least 40 if full.

What struck me was we have shortages [appliances] and yet there are very few people in our small city actually spending money. We gave a generous tip, at least by our standards and the waitress expressed surprise we were  so generous and told us how much she appreciated our generous tip. So her tips must not come easy with so few customers.

The mall looked  less then 1/4 full of parked shoppers, some for the grocery store I am sure.. No big rush to buy gas at the pumps and things in general just looked less than overly busy for how long we have been shut down. The Chevy dealership looked so forlorn with nothing on the lot to sell. Maybe 2-3 new cars,  or nothing??? I don't know and a hand full of tired looking used cars and no pick up trucks any where but I wasn't close enough to really know for sure,  but close enough to see a lot of empty lot space.

Now there were people out and about, walking, riding bicycle, chatting and generally enjoying a bit of freedom from lock down and such that people were simply happy to be out and about.

But the thing I don't understand is all the shortage. We bought appliances out of a book. No time table for delivery. In fact I saw very little commerce on our trip to the city. The people who were working looked to have a hard time making any money, from the waitress to the sales person. The other thing was how many stores had the doors locked, closed up.

The busiest place was the fast food drive thru, which costs as much as a medium class home cooked restaurant meal, except most of them are closed up, possibly for good. Honestly we went to one restaurant with locked doors and other people also were there only to find locked doors, same as we did. We compared notes and decided there might be 4 or 5 choices of a place to eat, that was not locked up

My question for all of you. Do you find it a bit odd that not much business is actually happening and yet we have shortages out the wassu. and price increases every day. I am sure if the Chevy dealership took delivery of a brand new pickup truck they would sell it for full retail price or perhaps a bit of premium. Since when have we paid full retail price for a truck???  or appliances. We would normally chip away for a few dollars, at the retail price if we were buying more than one appliance.  That does not happen today..

It so happens I don't walk so good and need a good used golf cart and new trailer to manage the race track in the pits. I find it hard to stay out of harms way and need some help. Well a yr or so ago, before covid, I was looking at 2500.00-3000.00 for an electric cart, depending on condition etc. Well good luck finding a golf cart for under 5 k and nothing fancy about the condition. Trailers are back ordered, nothing on the lot for sale. Before all this covid stuff, we had new trailers all over the place with prices that seemed reasonable. I know because my son made and sold enclosed trailers.

So: Is this transitory inflation, manufactured shortages or what the heck???. Are we buying more today than before covid became an issue??? I found people willing to work, [waitress, appliance sales person, car sales person] just not much business/spending to earn a living if you do want to work. I know the press tells us a different story,  about labor problems etc. but is it a labor problem that we can't buy chips??? so the Chevy dealership has some thing to sell on their lot.

So what is really happening??? I know several places are desperate for workers, which means this is really a complex question. How much comes from China. Is china causing a manufacturing slow down, a shortage of goods and increase in prices.?? And yet the shipping industry is back logged on containers and unloading or loading wait times. That stuff must be going some place with buyers wanting to buy and it seems at some point price is a secondary consideration

 At least that is the story from our part of the world. What is the story on spending and shortages in your part of the world. Are you folks buying more to justify the shortages, on just about everything???.

I have posted before on shortages and find it hard to think we have a chip shortage now and no shortage before covid happened. We don't make very many chips in NA so we can't blame people who don't want to work in Biden's world for a chip shortage with no end in sight. Before covid, lots of chevy trucks at the Chevy dealership. Today, not so many. Yes there are some but not the supply that the market wants

I read about a small manufacturer who needs a part that he bought for 1.00 pre covid. Today it costs 2.00 and he needs many such different parts for his product. 100% increase in price???.

Anybody got some answers. It isn't all workers who won't work as the chip shortage is not, for the most part, a NA manufactured product

Comments
By metmike - July 28, 2021, 2:52 a.m.
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Great topic Wayne!

You do this alot (introduce thought provoking subject matter)  and its much appreciated!

By TimNew - July 28, 2021, 4:13 a.m.
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Here in the states,  at least in my area, the malls, stores and restaraunts look pretty busy.  We don't get out much so I can't give you "On the ground" info..   But  traffic is heavy as ever and parking lots are pretty busy.  I would say patterns look pretty close to normal.  Bought a car in March and the lot was SRO.

But I do see indications of supply chain issues when grocery shopping. Things I take for granted are often not available, at least not in the qty and variety I've known.   But it's not consistent.  For a few weeks it was paper plates.  A few weeks it was asparagus. We had some trouble with a wine my wife is fond of that's generally a staple around here.   Just a few of many examples.

I See help wanted signs everywhere I go. I see massive job openings in JOLTS, at levels much higher (7 figure) than I've ever seen.   We can speculate as to why this is the case,  but I would be comfortable in saying thats a major factor in supply chain disruption.