crop conditions 7-12-21
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Started by metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:37 p.m.


POLL: Analysts see conditions for U.S. #corn and #soybeans each rising 1 pt on the week after some favorable rains. Spring #wheat conditions are seen unchanged and winter wheat harvest is expected to have advanced to 60% complete.


By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:29 p.m.
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U.S. #corn conditions improve 1 pt to 65% good/excellent but #soybeans and spring #wheat remain unch at 59% and 16%, respectively. Winter wheat harvest is 59% complete, a bit behind average. Corn and soy development is identical to a year ago.


By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:30 p.m.
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U.S. #corn conditions improve 1 pt to 65% good/excellent based on mixed moves in top states. Illinois, Nebraska and Kansas dropped 5 pts and South Dakota jumped 7 pts. Iowa, up 4 pts on the week, is up 10 pts in the last three weeks.


By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:31 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

#Soybeans were unchanged at 59% good/excellent with Illinois down 7, Kansas down 8 but Iowa up 6. Dakotas also see a little improvement but conditions there remain historically terrible.


By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:32 p.m.
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Conditions continue to worsen for spring #wheat with 55% now poor or very poor, up from 50% last week. An improvement in No. 2 producer Montana helped maintain national good/excellent at 16% as top grower North Dakota slid 2 pts to 16%.


By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:32 p.m.
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Downside is still possible with the low watermark at 4% good/excellent in July 1988. Highest poor/very poor was 76% in June/July 1988. The next highest outside of 1988 was 43% poor/very poor in July/Aug 2017.

By metmike - July 14, 2021, 2:02 p.m.
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U.S. #corn conditions at 65% good/excellent are identical to the same week in 2017, when the U.S. would eventually harvest a record yield of 176.6 bu/acre. Thought it would be interesting to compare by state. Indiana and Ohio are much better in 2021 but Minnesota is much worse.

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By metmike - July 14, 2021, 2:03 p.m.
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One notable difference between 2021 and 2017 is that corn conditions started in 2017 at 65% and 2021 at 76%. 2017 was the one standout year where conditions started below 70% but still hit above-trend yields. Historically that was very uncommon.

By metmike - July 14, 2021, 2:03 p.m.
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Here's some 2017 #corn yield outcomes (all as of 2017): Ohio- record

 Indiana- above average

 S Dakota- below avg

 N Dakota- above avg 

Illinois- record 

Iowa- 1 bu off record

 Kansas- below avg

 Minn- record 

Nebraska- avg or slightly above

 Missouri- above avg

By mcfarm - July 15, 2021, 6:06 p.m.
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Snodrass latest is not good for those in the NW belt who have suffered with dry and hot....its 95 and dry for several days, some up there say that is the end for corn prospects.  WC  Minnesota

By metmike - July 17, 2021, 12:46 p.m.
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Thanks much mcfarm!

Snodgrass is the absolute best in the business..........nobody is better.

I just drove across the entire state of Indiana from northeast to southwest(also northwest OH and southeast MI) but I did not see one field where the corn did not appear to be good or excellent. This was the windshield view of course.

Beans did not look bad either but was harder to tell. 

Last report showed just 7% of the IN corn was p/vp.  I would be very surprised if the corn yield in IN does not end up being above trend. Possibly near record IF temps stay on the cool side the rest of the Summer.

By mcfarm - July 17, 2021, 2:18 p.m.
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wish I could take the same drive but cannot get away. We have had inches again this week. Atleast 4 or more. Not good  esp for beans. You can smell the crop, you can see the holes, and you can only guess if the good will out weigh the part that is hurt

Around Bloomington Ill they have had 8 to 10 inches and down southeast Ill just last nite 6 to 8

By metmike - July 17, 2021, 4:16 p.m.
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Yes, I saw those very heavy rains and they've been pretty impressive but so did the market on Friday with the big reversal lower in corn. You may not like the news and want to believe all the bad things because they are bullish for prices which you would prefer but its always best to be tied to the reality.

If there were MORE rains coming, then I could understand being more bullish over this. Instead, what it does actually means to the market, is make the dry forecast LESS bullish..........because dry is actually bearish for a large part of the southern and eastern cornbelt because thats what the crop there would actually prefer.  It insures a maximum soil moisture profile into August which is insurance against the usual damaging weather element...........too dry.

The crop ratings on Monday are what the market will key off of.

The first 2 maps are the last 7 days. The 2nd 2 maps are the last 30 days.

7 day rain amounts below. More than 6 inches in several counties of S.IL. 

7 day rains compared to average........heaviest rains in S.IL.

30 day rains. Fairly large area of 10+ inches across the northern half of MO(far southeast IA) to central\southern IL to IN. Obviously way too much rain but this area had been getting pretty dry before the deluges started and looks to stay pretty dry for awhile now.

That area saw more than double the average rains over the last month with some spots getting triple the average rain. The dryness has been limited to mostly  MN and the Dakota's. 

This is the latest crop moisture map:


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

By Jim_M - July 18, 2021, 11:07 a.m.
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You can see in those maps, that Ohio has been getting some good rains.  Corn looks really good around me.  So does my lawn!  

By metmike - July 18, 2021, 5:03 p.m.
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Thanks Jim!

Last crop report had corn 79% G/E and beans 75% G/E in Ohio..........with the right weather for the next 6 weeks, you could have a record crop.

By mcfarmer - July 18, 2021, 6:06 p.m.
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Raking hay next to the earliest planted corn today. I walked out a few rows and picked a couple ears. This corn has just fully tasseled and hasn’t pollinated yet but the maximum number of ovules  are there to count.

Based on the Illinois yield calculator this corn has a maximum of 217bpa, about right at our average. It had 18 rows and about 34 ovules long. We were concerned that the early severe dryness might have reduced the potential ear size, that doesn’t seem to be the case in this example.

Of course future environmental stress may reduce the ear length, kernel size and kernel weight but the potential is still there.

By metmike - July 18, 2021, 6:33 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarmer!

For those that don't know, mcfarmer is in nw. IA.

What county is that?

By wglassfo - July 18, 2021, 11:26 p.m.
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Our average isn't that good, but we survive

Tassels are coming out here also, but very uneven

The bean damage from the recent monsoons is easy to see

The uneven corn tassels tells the flood damage in the corn fields

Plus we had some hail

You have to know what to look for to see the damage in our part of the world

But it is there

No doubt about it

Below average both corn and beans

No idea how much, as it is variable damage

Our farm:

 Beans look better than the corn due to better drainage in our bean fields. Most others have extensive flood damage in bean fields. Many neighbour fields with 20-30-40- 50 % loss. One field close by has estimated 80 -90 % loss, just a guess, by looking at it

Our corn might be 40 bu less yield but yield is hard to guess except we know corn will be less, than what could have been

Too many things went wrong starting mid June to date

S.W Ontario, Canada

By metmike - July 19, 2021, 2:36 a.m.
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Thanks Wayne!