Downside is still possible with the low watermark at 4% good/excellent in July 1988. Highest poor/very poor was 76% in June/July 1988. The next highest outside of 1988 was 43% poor/very poor in July/Aug 2017.
U.S. #corn conditions at 65% good/excellent are identical to the same week in 2017, when the U.S. would eventually harvest a record yield of 176.6 bu/acre. Thought it would be interesting to compare by state. Indiana and Ohio are much better in 2021 but Minnesota is much worse.
One notable difference between 2021 and 2017 is that corn conditions started in 2017 at 65% and 2021 at 76%. 2017 was the one standout year where conditions started below 70% but still hit above-trend yields. Historically that was very uncommon.
Snodrass latest is not good for those in the NW belt who have suffered with dry and hot....its 95 and dry for several days, some up there say that is the end for corn prospects. https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1008744&mid=9111717#M9111717 WC Minnesotahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8LUFa5omgQ
Thanks much mcfarm!
Snodgrass is the absolute best in the business..........nobody is better.
I just drove across the entire state of Indiana from northeast to southwest(also northwest OH and southeast MI) but I did not see one field where the corn did not appear to be good or excellent. This was the windshield view of course.
Beans did not look bad either but was harder to tell.
Last report showed just 7% of the IN corn was p/vp. I would be very surprised if the corn yield in IN does not end up being above trend. Possibly near record IF temps stay on the cool side the rest of the Summer.
wish I could take the same drive but cannot get away. We have had inches again this week. Atleast 4 or more. Not good esp for beans. You can smell the crop, you can see the holes, and you can only guess if the good will out weigh the part that is hurt
Around Bloomington Ill they have had 8 to 10 inches and down southeast Ill just last nite 6 to 8
Yes, I saw those very heavy rains and they've been pretty impressive but so did the market on Friday with the big reversal lower in corn. You may not like the news and want to believe all the bad things because they are bullish for prices which you would prefer but its always best to be tied to the reality.
If there were MORE rains coming, then I could understand being more bullish over this. Instead, what it does actually means to the market, is make the dry forecast LESS bullish..........because dry is actually bearish for a large part of the southern and eastern cornbelt because thats what the crop there would actually prefer. It insures a maximum soil moisture profile into August which is insurance against the usual damaging weather element...........too dry.
The crop ratings on Monday are what the market will key off of.
The first 2 maps are the last 7 days. The 2nd 2 maps are the last 30 days.
7 day rain amounts below. More than 6 inches in several counties of S.IL.
7 day rains compared to average........heaviest rains in S.IL.
30 day rains. Fairly large area of 10+ inches across the northern half of MO(far southeast IA) to central\southern IL to IN. Obviously way too much rain but this area had been getting pretty dry before the deluges started and looks to stay pretty dry for awhile now.
That area saw more than double the average rains over the last month with some spots getting triple the average rain. The dryness has been limited to mostly MN and the Dakota's.
This is the latest crop moisture map:
You can see in those maps, that Ohio has been getting some good rains. Corn looks really good around me. So does my lawn!
Last crop report had corn 79% G/E and beans 75% G/E in Ohio..........with the right weather for the next 6 weeks, you could have a record crop.
Raking hay next to the earliest planted corn today. I walked out a few rows and picked a couple ears. This corn has just fully tasseled and hasn’t pollinated yet but the maximum number of ovules are there to count.
Based on the Illinois yield calculator this corn has a maximum of 217bpa, about right at our average. It had 18 rows and about 34 ovules long. We were concerned that the early severe dryness might have reduced the potential ear size, that doesn’t seem to be the case in this example.
Of course future environmental stress may reduce the ear length, kernel size and kernel weight but the potential is still there.
For those that don't know, mcfarmer is in nw. IA.
What county is that?
Our average isn't that good, but we survive
Tassels are coming out here also, but very uneven
The bean damage from the recent monsoons is easy to see
The uneven corn tassels tells the flood damage in the corn fields
Plus we had some hail
You have to know what to look for to see the damage in our part of the world
But it is there
No doubt about it
Below average both corn and beans
No idea how much, as it is variable damage
Beans look better than the corn due to better drainage in our bean fields. Most others have extensive flood damage in bean fields. Many neighbour fields with 20-30-40- 50 % loss. One field close by has estimated 80 -90 % loss, just a guess, by looking at it
Our corn might be 40 bu less yield but yield is hard to guess except we know corn will be less, than what could have been
Too many things went wrong starting mid June to date
S.W Ontario, Canada