Grains Sunday-Monday
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Started by metmike - July 8, 2018, 2 p.m.

CENTRAL Cornbelt drying out this week (MO/IL/IN/OH)...........though not completely dry everywhere. New rains emerging late week 1 that were not there for that time frame in last weeks forecast.  

Forecast for rains below:

Day 1:

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 1

Day 1 QPF

Day 2:

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 2

Day 2 QPF

Day 3:

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 3

Day 3 QPF

Days 4-5:

Days 6-7:


Days 4-5
            Day 4-5 QPF valid 12z 07/11/18 - 12z 07/13/18     
Valid 12z 07/11/18 - 12z 07/13/18     
[contours only]    
Days 6-7
            Day 6-7 QPF valid 12z 07/13/18 - 12z 07/15/18     
Valid 12z 07/13/18 - 12z 07/15/18     
[contours only]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - July 8, 2018, 8:08 p.m.
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              See all of the latest weather here:

Update From Monday Weather:

Old one from Sunday Weather below:

Probably a key item in early trading tonight is the weather info below:

  By metmike - July 8, 2018, 6:26 p.m.            


The latest NWS automated extended guidance is the most bearish its been in over 2 weeks:

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By Jim_M - July 8, 2018, 8:49 p.m.
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Quite the change from Friday.

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:32 a.m.
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Correct, the weather did change a great deal over the weekend to much more bearish.

Exports inspections:

Nothing exciting, wheat was on the weak side:

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 12:37 p.m.
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Considering the added precip but especially the much cooler temperatures in the extended, heat fill for corn would be less of a threat from late July onward..............IF it were to be cool.

Beans are getting hit the hardest today from the bearish changes in the weather forecast from Friday though:

With those changes, it now seems conceivable if the weather remained near perfect(after this week's hot/dry stretch) that we can make new lows. 

Corn-CZ is currently over 60c below the highs from over a month ago and around 8c from the lows early last week.

Beans-SX are currently $1.90 from the highs and around 18c above the lows from late last week. 

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 12:43 p.m.
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Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently just above 10 year lows from last week!!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below


Soybeans 1 year chart below   


Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently at 10 year lows!







By metmike - July 9, 2018, 12:44 p.m.
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Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

Is the bottom in? If we have heat fill(extended heat from late July thru August), it is. If we turn cooler later this month, maybe not.

3 month below

1 year below


5 year below                


 10 year below                



By metmike - July 9, 2018, 1:44 p.m.
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Last 12Z GFS continuing the trend of the dome backing up...........way up to the Southwest on this run and a very deep/cool upper level trough for the eastern half of the country on this run:


By metmike - July 9, 2018, 4:04 p.m.
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Corn rating down 1%, beans unch. More later