INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 9, 2021, 8:04 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 9, 2021  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 665.9)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.0%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 261.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.1%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 3022)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 479.27M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.079M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.98M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.499M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 132.802M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.72M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 88.7%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.14M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.816M)

 

                        

 



 

 

Thursday, June 10, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 385K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -20K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3771000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +169K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2313B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. May Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 



 

 

Friday, June 11, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 82.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 77.6)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 14,064.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,527.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,917.25. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,527.61. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the May 13th low, May's high crossing at 4238.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4149.36 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4236.75. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4149.36. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 160-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 160-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-14. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 155-14.  



June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.105 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 7th high crossing at 133.165. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.105. Second support is May's low crossing at 131.265. Third support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $70.62. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $66.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.03.



July heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0586 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0586. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9590.  



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1499 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.2356. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1499. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0758. 



July Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 3.204 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.010 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance resistance is May's high crossing at 3.204. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.010. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.903.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $90.63 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.86. First resistance is the May 13th high crossing at $90.91. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.



The June Euro was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $121.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $121.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.74.

 

The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4091 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4091. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3982.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.1203. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0987.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 13th low crossing at $81.95 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the May 13th crossing at $81.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.39.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091629 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1815.10.



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.730. 



July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4213 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4213. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by spillover weakness from wheat. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.52 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4.        



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.17 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking triggered by rain across portions of the Dakota's on Tuesday and into the overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the June 1st gap crossing at $7.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.13 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.52 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.06 1/4.

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.20. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is May's low crossing at $378.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.     


July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are  possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.87. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 64.23.    

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $0.30 at $121.80. 



July hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.12.  



August cattle closed up $0.05 at $116.73. 



August cattle closed slightly higher on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at $111.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.61. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at $121.23. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $114.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.92. 



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $149.25. 


August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at $145.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.76. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $157.20. First support is June's low crossing at $145.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.52.



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.              



July cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                 



July sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.66 is the next downside target.     



July cotton closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.74 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's rally, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the April 13th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target.        

Comments
By metmike - June 9, 2021, 12:28 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks a ton tallpine!!