11 responses | 1 like
Started by metmike - July 6, 2018, 1:38 p.m.

Big oil is sowing the seeds for a 'super-spike' in crude prices above $150, Bernstein warns


  • Oil prices could top all-time highs as energy companies invest too little money in new production, Bernstein Research warns.
  • The underinvestment could cause a super-spike "potentially much larger than" $150 a barrel.
  • Reinvestment in oil reserves is the lowest in a generation, while the amount of time those reserves will last has shrunk since 2000, according to Bernstein
Re: crude
By metmike - July 6, 2018, 1:40 p.m.
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Crude breaking out to the upside?

Crude 3 month chart


Crude 1 year chart below


Crude 5 year chart below


Crude 10 year chart below


Re: crude
By Richard - July 7, 2018, 8:06 a.m.
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WOW. A super spike above $150. Who would have ever guessed oil going above $150.

Re: Re: crude
By Lacey - July 7, 2018, 8:17 a.m.
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Well, this guy agrees with you Richard.  $5. Gasoline is going to slow things up a lot.

By Richard - July 7, 2018, 9:34 a.m.
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The economy will slow if the FED wants the economy to slow. It depends on there agenda.

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:15 p.m.
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I was thinking of you when I posted the article/opinion.

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:18 p.m.
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Rig count:

The number of rotary rigs drilling for oil wasup 5 at 863. There are 100 more rigs targeting oil than last year.

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:23 p.m.
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Note that Crude stocks have gone from being the highest ever.......above the 5 year average to the middle of the 5 year average.

Stocks (million barrels)

Stock price graphs

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:35 p.m.
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Wider view of Crude(lowest stocks in over 3 years):

Gasoline ending stocks are still very high:

Heating Oil stocks are the most bullish of the 3.  The lowest for the end of June since 2005!

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 1:49 p.m.
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Crude down slightly today

By metmike - July 10, 2018, 7:25 p.m.
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July 10, 2018

Short-Term Energy Outlook From US Energy Information Administration:

 Forecast Highlights 

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in June, a decrease of almost $3/b from the May average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $73/b in the second half of 2018 and will average $69/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $6/b lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7/b lower in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $56/b to $87/b encompasses the market expectation for October WTI prices at the 95% confidence level. 
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.89 gallon (gal) in June, down 1 cent/gal from the average in May. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in May and forecasts prices to decline gradually in the coming months to an average of $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and $2.77/gal in 2019. 
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in June, up 0.1 million b/d from the May level. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and to average 11.8 million b/d in 2019. If realized, both of these forecast levels would surpass the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
  • EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018 and to an average of 1.6 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net imports since 1958. 
  • EIA forecasts total global liquid fuels end-of-year inventories to be unchanged in 2018 compared with 2017, followed by a rise of 0.6 million b/d in 2019. 
By metmike - July 10, 2018, 7:32 p.m.
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  • U.S. residential electricity price
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
  • World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
  • U.S. natural gas prices