https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
the dow consensus is getting adjusted slightly upward.
but the fed estimate is getting substantial downward revisions lately.
How will this affect the dollar
With a deficit greater than everything produced in the country
How long can the Fed continue to borrow, , the Treasury supplying money to the gov't to spend, with out some consequences to the dollar value
If your family continues to spend more than your income or equity, what will your lender think???
On the other hand imports may become so expensive that home land production may become more profitable. Lower wages in china is becoming a smaller part of the total cost of wizzards as automation replaces more and more of the labor part of making wizzards
There is a reason why china wants to peg their currency at today's value
The question is?? can china do it
The dollar value is not a done deal as of today
as debt levels get higher, and interest rates want to rise, i expect our central bank will get more extreme on bond buying in order to suppress interest rates.
in europe, and in japan, central banks are already engaging in massive bond buying to fund bond markets. if interest rates were to rise substantially in europe it could cause big problems in those countries.
we are in untested waters. there is NO historical evidence to tell us how it will play out when central banks monetize debt in ever larger quantities.
i suspect that at some point there will be a very ugly end to all of this. but i don't know when.
thanks bear.
None of us know for sure but we are being put at an extremely high risk for a disaster because once things turn ugly, there isn't as much that can be done.
The time for action in the form of fiscally responsible policies and budgets is years before the damage mounts to an insurmountable level.
However, in looking around the globe, the US is not alone.
https://spendmenot.com/blog/national-debt-by-country/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt
