Week in Review
2 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - May 28, 2021, 11:31 a.m.

Chicago Fed Natl ActivityM/MApr-211.710.24C
Richmond Fed MfgM/MMay-2117.0018.00C+
Kansas City Fed MfgM/MMay-2131.0026.00C
Chicago PMIM/MMay-2172.1075.20C+
Durable Good M/MApr-210.50-1.30C-
Core Capital Goods M/MApr-210.902.30C+
Case/Shiller HPIM/MMar-211.201.60C+
FHFA HPIM/MMar-210.900.01C+
New Home SalesM/MApr-211021K863KC-
Pending Home Sales M/MApr-211.90-4.40D+
GDP  Q/QQ1:20216.406.40C
Corporate Profits Q/QQ1:20214.1025.20B+
RedBook W/W5/22/202112.6013.60C+
Jobless Claims W/W5/22/2021444K406KC+
Consumer SentimentM/MMay-2182.8082.90C+
Consumer Confidence M/MMay-21121.70117.20C-
State Street Invstors   Confidence M/MMay-2192.7097.90C+
Personal Income M/MApr-2121.00-13.10D+
Personal Spending M/MApr-214.200.50C

A good bit of data this week.  Some disappointing,  but IMO, paints an overall positive picture.

What jumped out at me this week was the significant drop in Personal Income.  I went with a D+ on the raw headline, and did not dive into the numbers.  It's been a busy week for me.   For now,  I am assuming that what is happening is lower earners are re-entering the work force, diluting the numbers considerably.  Just a guess,  but is supported by past reports.  Helping to confirm this,  Personal Spending was up a bit after decent gains in the previous month.

Pending and New Home Sales also took a hit.  It appears this is inventory related,  Homes continue to be bought as soon as they are available.  The 13+/-% annualized gain in prices supports a supply issue.

Durable Goods also took a hit. Again,  I did not dive behind the numbers,  but Excluding Transportation showed a 1% gain and Core Capital was strong, suggesting to me that the ever volitale Aircraft market took a hit.  Overall, MFG looks pretty strong. Let's see next month.

Redbook remains in the stratosphere with solid double digit gains.

Consumers settled a bit but remain in a pretty good mood, and State Street Investors built a good bit of confidence over the last month.

2nd estimate for Q1 GDP remains at a very respectable 6.4% and Corporate Profits blew me away with an outsized 25.2% gain.

And of course,  Jobless Claims continue their descent into a normal range.  Almost there.

I'll go with a conservative C+ this week, without confirmation of my assumptions/explanations above. Suck Factor remains at 5, but a good Employment Situation next week may retire it. GDP and Employment have been the large part of the justification for that metric and they appear to be returning to respectable levels.


By metmike - May 28, 2021, 12:22 p.m.
Like Reply

Wow, thats a ton of data. Thanks very much Tim!

By metmike - May 28, 2021, 12:26 p.m.
Like Reply

See all of Tim's very comprehensive reports, going back to the early part of the pandemic here: