Happy Independence Day Weather!
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Started by metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:12 a.m.

Hot as a Firecracker in many places! Heat and high humidity!

Current US Heat Index Map


 Advertised pattern change about to start. Heat ridge backs up west, rains get skinnier and Cornbelt drying out commences after this last wave of rains comes thru....though not completely dry everywhere.

Forecast for rains below:

Day 1:


24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 1

Day 1 QPF

Day 2:


24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 2

Day 2 QPF

Day 3:


24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 3

Day 3 QPF

Days 4-5:


Days 6-7:


48 Hour Precipitation Totals


Days 4-5
            Day 4-5 QPF valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
Valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
[contours only]    
Days 6-7
            Day 6-7 QPF valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18     
Valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk Wednesday. C. Plains to Upper Midwest. Press your cursor on the map for full screen.


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook




                                                                                                    Email: meteormike@msn.

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:21 a.m.
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Most weather maps on MarketForum are updated constantly, from radar images every few minutes to daily precip/models. This causes descriptions of some of the maps to be outdated later on or the next day. Every day, we just start over again with new descriptions and new maps. Please enjoy the comprehensive coverage of your weather here!

High Temperatures today and Thursday,  hot in much of the country...cool N.Rockies on Wednesday.


Adding the 70+ dew points below will make it feel 5-10 degrees hotter in many places.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:24 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  The most intense Heat backing up..... but still very warm/hot in most places. Cool start in Northeast.



By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:25 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:


Low Temperature Departures:


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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From the GFS ensemble mean products. Temperature anomalies for Wednesday.



  Temperature anomalies at the end of week 2.....most intense heat shifted west.


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:27 a.m.
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Last OVERNIGHT European model:

Loading Maps...

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
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Canadian ensembles still have several members below with a very bullish dome farther east:

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 19, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show). Very Warm across the country but this tool shows much more precip than before...........from ridge riders???


Precip below:


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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Satellite picture.

US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:34 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  N.Plains and Upper Midwest.


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:


Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal". 


By wglassfo - July 4, 2018, 11:05 a.m.
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Seems like rain in Mn is a daily event

How can MN have record  gd/ex

If nothing else N loss or lack of application and weeds will  be a big problem

Pictures of water over the top of roads tells the story

Maybe there is lots of good corn on theh ills

But how do you get to the hills to take care of the crop

I suppose gd/ex is what some body sees

I am not there so what do I know

What is MN

The 4th largest producer of corn

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 4:39 p.m.
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A fairly large area of southwest Minn has had over 10 inches of rain in the past month. There are a couple of counties in that location that have received over 10 inches in the past 2 weeks and over 15 inches in the past month.

That area is going to report crop ratings plunging on the next crop report but its a small area.

That location is the spot with the most excessive rains but farther south, into far se SD, ne NE, IA and IL, there are numerous places that got over 10 inches of rain in the past month.  This is a bit too much rain but the crop has not suffered much in those larger areas and the market has been trading it as insurance against the week 2 heat ridges with hot/dry every day now on the extended outlooks for the past 11 days...........that will change. 

The long advertised pattern change is taking shape. The first week of dry(and very warm) weather will be welcomed in the large water soaked areas and start to stress the spots that are on the dry side right now.

The 2nd week of dry and possibly hot weather will no longer be welcomed. The previously wet areas will have dried out completely, with high ground needing rain. The areas that were already dry in week 1 will start experiencing a decline in crop conditions, some spots dropping a category and enough for it to show up in the crop ratings.

The 3rd week of dry and possibly hot weather will cause deterioration in many places, including some previously wet spots. The week 1 dry spots may drop 2 categories(form excellent to fair or from good to poor).

Near the end of July, if there is a widespread heat ridge that lasts into August, heat fill will reduce yields the most for corn. My weather forecast can't see that far out and I adjust it everyday based on the latest guidance.........which on this great holiday afternoon is moving in the direction of the description above.

The description above is for what will happen IF a large heat ridge (dome of death) moves in and stays. Tune in tomorrow and Friday to see if I need to adjust it back to a bit cooler, like earlier this week. The drying out part has been a constant theme in my forecast for quite some time. 


By metmike - July 4, 2018, 4:55 p.m.
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Last 12z European model........."dome of death"??  We will see.

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 5:07 p.m.
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NWS extended maps: Above temps, below rain in the Cornbelt........same as the previous 11 days of extended maps..........though some of the latest guidance is now getting hotter again in week 2....yeah,, even hotter than the maps below. 

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability