Exports 4-19-21+more
9 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - April 19, 2021, 11:11 a.m.

Robust for wheat, not so great for beans.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

Comments
By metmike - April 19, 2021, 11:44 a.m.
Like Reply

USDA to review quarterly U.S. grain stocks report methodology

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/refile-usda-to-review-quarterly-us-grain-stocks-report-methodology

CHICAGO, April 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s statistics division is conducting a “deep dive” review of how it conducts its quarterly U.S. grain stocks reports, an official said during an online conference on Wednesday.

The quarterly reports are among the most market-sensitive releases from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The stocks figures, detailing the amount of major crops held on and off U.S. farms, are based on surveys of about 8,400 commercial grain facilities and roughly 80,000 farmers. The United States is the world’s biggest supplier of corn and a top exporter of soy and wheat.

 “We certainly look at these programs each and every year, but this is a deeper dive that we will be doing this year,” Lance Honig, chief of the agency’s crops branch, said in an online meeting for USDA data users.

A team has been assigned to review the sampling methods and questionnaires that USDA uses to collect the data as well as how the agency processes the information, Honig said. The team’s findings and recommendations are expected by Sept. 30 and any changes would go into effect after Oct. 1, he said.

The stocks reports have a history of jolting futures markets. Chicago Board of Trade corn futures soared 5% on Jan. 12 after the USDA’s report of Dec. 1 corn stocks fell below trade expectations and included a significant downward revision for stocks as of Sept. 1.

Honig acknowledged that recent quarterly grain reports have included some unusually large revisions.

“The fact of the matter is, the previous quarter was always open to revision,” Honig said, noting that stocks revisions are often due to updated or late-reported data on supply or usage.

The American Farm Bureau Federation in January said farmers’ confidence in the USDA’s reports had faded, and it called on the government to modernize its technology and improve transparency. (Reporting by Julie Ingwersen. Editing by Sam Holmes.)

By metmike - April 19, 2021, 11:48 a.m.
Like Reply

metmike: This news was from late last week.

@kannbwx

NOPA U.S. crush, March 2021:177.984 mln bu of #soybeans Down 2% from Mar 2020 Below analyst avg of 179.179 mbu

Soyoil stocks 1.771 bln lbs, up slightly from FebAnalyst guess 1.822 blnOil yield surges

Soymeal exports 937kt, down 4% from Mar 2020ImageImageImageImage


By metmike - April 19, 2021, 11:55 a.m.
Like Reply

Replying to 

@kannbwx

Here's how things looked 1, 2 and 3 months ago. Oceans were devoid of #soybeans back in January since #Brazil's harvest was late and the shipping didn't start until February.

ImageImageImage

By metmike - April 19, 2021, noon
Like Reply

@kannbwx

So many vessels filled with #soybeans on the map now that it wont let me take the full snapshot. #China is cut off, but I will show the arriving cargoes in the next tweet. #Brazil's April soybean exports are expected at an all-time record for any month.


Image


Replying to 

@kannbwx

#Soybeans arriving in #China, ones that were shipped in the earlier stages of #Brazil's 2020/21 campaign.

Image


By metmike - April 19, 2021, 6:24 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

Posting a bit later than usual today... Export inspections for #corn and #soybeans were at the low end of expectations while #wheat was above. 560k corn was inspected for #China, but basically no beans. A cargo of corn each was added in the prior week for China and Israel.

Image



By metmike - April 19, 2021, 6:33 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

April 19: New-crop CBOT #corn & #soybeans BOTH hit new contract highs, but Nov beans have very much lost their advantage vs Dec corn. SX/CZ is the 3rd lowest on the date within the last 8 years at 2.46. New highs: Dec corn $5.21-3/4 per bushel, Nov beans $12.87-3/4.

Image

By metmike - April 22, 2021, 1:06 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - April 22, 2021, 1:07 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx


#China canceled 2 old-crop #corn cargoes and 1 of #soybeans. They bought some new-crop #wheat and old and new-crop #sorghum. Total #pork sales were a marketing year low of -22kt, but that was driven by #Mexico. China bought 13kt of pork last week.

Image

By metmike - April 22, 2021, 2:18 p.m.
Like Reply

Todays huge  move higher in the grains has more to do with old crops stocks not being high enough to satiate the demand before the new crop is harvested later this year.....so there must be price rationing (higher) to reduce demand down to the level of stocks that are available.