Two Weeks in Review
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Started by TimNew - April 16, 2021, 1:41 p.m.

PMI Svc M/MMar-2159.8060.40C+
ISM Svc M/MMar-2155.3063.70B
Philly Fed Mfg M/MApr-2151.8050.20C
Empire State Mfg M/MApr-2117.4026.30B-
Industrial Production M/MMar-21-2.201.40C+
Factory Orders M/MFeb-212.60-0.80C-
Job Openings (JOLTS) M/MFeb-216.917M7.367MB
NFIB Small Business Optimism   M/MApr-2195.8098.20C+
Consumer Sentiment M/MApr-2184.9086.50C+
RedBook W/W 14/3/20219.8010.60C+
RedBook W/W 24/10/202110.6013.20B-
Retail Sales M/MMar-21-3.009.80B-
Jobless Claims W/W 14/3/2021719K744KC-
Jobless Claims W/W 24/10/2021744K576KB+
Housing Market Index M/MApr-2182.0083.00C
Housing Starts M/MMar-211.421M1.739MB-
Housing Permits M/MMar-211.682M1.77C+

Pretty strong couple of weeks.

Factory Orders were down in Feb.  We saw some weakness then.  I expect we'll see improvement for March.

Business Optimism notched up a bit along with Consumers. 

Housing has come out of the doldrums.  The index notched up a bit while Starts and Permits showed very strong growth.  1 month does not a trend make,  but it's not what we've been seeing for the last qtr+.

Both MFG and Services came in strong PMI/ISM Svcs at 60+. Philly remains very high at 50.2 and Empire State showed a real jump.  Industrial Production showed some softness in Feb but had a decent rebound for March

RedBook continues at levels  I don't recall seeing and Retail did a MAJOR 9.8% Jump.

Job Openings showed a nice gain to a  very high 7.36 million. Voluntary Quits at a healthy 3.4 million.

And Jobless Claims!!!  2 weeks ago we saw another 700+k reading but this week came in at the lowest level since early March of last year into a near normal level of 576K.  This has to be a blip on the scale.  Let's see what happens next week,   but very encouraging on the face of it.

Normally,  when I do my commentary, I start with the worst news, then the not so bad, and then the good.  Other than February Factory Orders, and discounting last weeks Jobless claims,  these readings are nothing less than stellar.   We're reopening and as long as it continues,  we're in a very bullish configuration.

I'll go with an overall B on the week and lower the suck factor to a pandemic low 5, largely on the strength of the Jobless Claims.  Next week could put us back up a notch or 2,   we'll see.

I'll probably retire the suck factor once it gets at or below 4,  unless I hear objections.

By metmike - April 16, 2021, 1:43 p.m.
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Thanks Tim!!!

"I'll go with an overall B on the week"

Holy Cow, is that your highest rating ever? 

Maybe it just been so long that I forgot (-:

By metmike - April 16, 2021, 1:48 p.m.
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I'll have to add the 2021 additions when I get a chance:

 Week in Review compilation Mar-December 2020    

By TimNew - April 16, 2021, 1:58 p.m.
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It's up there,  but as I recall,  when we were seeing job creation in the multi-millions and GDP north of 30,  I believe I  went with B+, A-.    Normal deviation keeps us in the C- to C+ range.  D's and B's are anomalies.   

An overall great report,  but the Jobless claims hitting a year+ low influenced my mood.  I hope it continues,  but usually, with a drop like that,  you hear about some state(s), (Most often California, believe it or not) screwing up their numbers.  Let's see what the revision looks like next week, along with the current numbers for the week.