KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, March 15, 2021
8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 12.1)
Employment Idx (previous 12.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 10.8)
Prices Received (previous 23.4)
10:00 AM ET. January State Employment and Unemployment
4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +5.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +5.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +6.1%)
8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +1.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +8.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 75.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 84)
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,137.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,137.31. Second resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.
The June S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3829.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3949.00. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3829.68. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 164-02. First support is the overnight low crossing at 155-13. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.064 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.064. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at 134.200. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 131.230. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 3rd low crossing at $59.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the March 3rd low crossing at $59.24. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $57.31.
April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.69. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $171.81.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $199.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $217.00. Second resistance is the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $199.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $179.92.
April Henry natural gas gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.496 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.791 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.739. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.791. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.496. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.406.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $92.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $91.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.05.
The June Euro was lower overnight signaling as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.82. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.62. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3796 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3796. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.3568.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight and is testing initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0817. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0967 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0817. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0967. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the February 26th low crossing at $78.42. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 26th low crossing at $78.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $80.39. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.52. First support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42. Second support is January's low crossing at $77.65.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight and trading below the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 0.0920. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0935 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0935. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1744.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1744.90. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1812.60. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.
May silver was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.681 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.681. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.
May copper was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off October's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400 is the next upside target. Closes below March's low crossing at 3.8490 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is March's low crossing at 3.8490. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8130.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-August's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.
May wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.26.
May Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.98 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it extends the January-March trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.42 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish out. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.82 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off last-August's low, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.82 3/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $428.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $412.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $418.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 55.75. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.10 at $91.40.
April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $91.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.31. Second support is the March 2nd low crossing at $85.13.
April cattle closed up $0.48 at $119.00
April cattle closed higher on Friday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $118.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.95 at $143.23.
April Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.19 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 143.85. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. First support last-Friday's low crossing at $137.22. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.19 signals that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.86 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May cotton closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.19 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!