NG 3/7
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Started by MarkB - March 7, 2021, 5:07 p.m.

Continuing thread here.


Weather models turned slightly warmer over the weekend. Looks like no fundamental support for the bulls, or the seasonal.

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Re: NG 3/7
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By WxFollower - March 7, 2021, 5:21 p.m.
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Mark,

 I disagree but we'll see.

 The models have not warmed but instead have had increased HDDs since Fri on a day by day comparison. That along with supportive seasonals tells me to expect a higher open.

 Despite a lack of -AO/-NAO/+PNA, there is a progged -EPO along with MJO in the cooler E US phases that the models have dominating enough to bring back the chill to the US as a whole, especially 3/14+.

 

 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By WxFollower - March 7, 2021, 5:50 p.m.
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 The EIA report issued last week was shockingly bearish as Mike noted. How bearish vs the WSJ survey mean that I've followed for 18 years? 46 bcf! The mean guess was -144 vs the actual of +98.

 Since I happen to have a record of the WSJ survey mean guess going back to 2003, I was able to go back to see if this was THE most bearish. It turns out it was the SECOND most bearish and the most bearish in over 15 years. But I also should note that this one was by far the most bearish for a nonholiday week (by 14 bcf) as the holiday weeks often have had bigger misses due to more difficulty in guessing holiday related demand loss:

 Here are the most bearish and bullish EIAs in relation to the WSJ mean with the dates listed being the end of the EIA week with an asterisk meaning holiday week: (+ means bearish and - means bullish)


Bearish:

12/30/05 +51*

02/26/21 +46

12/27/13 +37*

01/16/04 +32

01/02/09 +31*

02/13/09 +30


Bullish (none of the 4 most bullish were holiday weeks):

12/11/09 -31

01/25/08 -31

07/21/06 -30

02/06/04 -30

 

 

  

 


By MarkB - March 7, 2021, 6:05 p.m.
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If the pattern follows the past 5 years, exports should also be falling off. Which would be bearish in nature. But they don't go down/stay down much. We will see as the reports update. Still looking for the long seasonal to kick in. But I will go with the flow of the market.

By WxFollower - March 7, 2021, 6:15 p.m.
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We didn't get the higher open that I expected as it was pretty flat.

By WxFollower - March 7, 2021, 6:30 p.m.
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Mark said:

"If the pattern follows the past 5 years, exports should also be falling off. Which would be bearish in nature."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mark,

 Don't exports fall off in spring because of a reduction in HDD demand in other N Hemispheric countries (just like the US)? if so, that would be expected every year. If that's true, would that really be bearish since it wouldn't be bearish vs expectations?

 

By metmike - March 7, 2021, 7:48 p.m.
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Thanks for getting us started with a lively new ng thread discussion!

I'm leaning in Larry's direction for natural gas if the models add more HDD's overnight. 

To me, it looks like just the GFS ensemble added the HDD's vs Friday and the Euro Ensemble was about the same.


But it's March. 

1. Weather is probably not going to make a huge amount of difference compared to recent months. It can't be counted on as the #1 trading item like it usually is during the previous 4 months............unless its pretty extreme. It's still  important but Winter is over. 

2. Seasonals in March/April are extremely strong. I'll show a graph in a minute. Don't be short during those 2 months without a good reason. #3 might be a good reason?

3. Like Larry showed, the last EIA was one of the biggest bearish shockers in history. What the heck caused that? Was it an anomaly or have fundamentals turned more bearish? Increasing supplies?

4. We violated a strong uptrend line last week going back to the late December lows. We have a double top in place with the November and February highs.  Technically, this looks potentially bearish. This is also some potentially strong support that I will guess can hold if it gets colder.

5. Prices have come a long way up in a short period of time, since just late December..........but this is because storage has gone from near the highest in history at the start of Winter to below the 5 year average near the end/currently.

6. Potential Inflation and the economy recovering from COVID might be bullish factors.

7. The current administration is on a mission to cut fossil fuel use by increasing prices and it gets tricky. They can ban fracking on federal land, which reduces supply but WILL BE (100% certain) imposing penalties to power plants burning fossil fuels, likely in the form of CO2 taxes.......which makes ng more expensive and cuts demand. There will be carbon taxes on our gasoline too for sure. Question is how far will they go? Will they tax coal companies for mining coal, then tax power plants for burning the same coal? This will be passed along to consumers. 


The huge drawdown in supplies the last 3 months. Was this all weather?

Nope! We all remember the polar vortex/extreme -AO near record cold outbreak last month, especially in Texas but look at the temperature anomalies for the past 90 days below. Not as cold as you thought probably.

In fact, slightly milder than average over the Eastern 1/3rd of the country, especially the Northeast where the most people live. Surprise!


Ihttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/90day/mean/20210305.90day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - March 7, 2021, 8:04 p.m.
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Note below, the blue line has gone from  near the top of the supply range 3 months ago........to crashing below the 5 year average in the middle of the graph.

That's pretty dang bullish, especially considering that we didn't have one of the coldest Winters of the last few decades. Note temps from the last 3 months on the previous page.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending February 26, 2021   |  Released: March 4, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 11, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                -98 BCF  2nd most bearish in history

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66348/#66351

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(02/26/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region02/26/2102/19/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East383  424  -41  -41   460  -16.7  415  -7.7  
Midwest465  508  -43  -43   567  -18.0  507  -8.3  
Mountain117  123  -6  -6   103  13.6  113  3.5  
Pacific210  218  -8  -8   197  6.6  191  9.9  
South Central670  670  0  0   795  -15.7  796  -15.8  
   Salt159  150  9  9   233  -31.8  245  -35.1  
   Nonsalt511  520  -9  -9   562  -9.1  552  -7.4  
Total1,845  1,943  -98  -98   2,122  -13.1  2,023  -8.8  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,845 Bcf as of Friday, February 26, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 277 Bcf less than last year at this time and 178 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,023 Bcf. At 1,845 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - March 7, 2021, 8:10 p.m.
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Below, it does look like recent EIA reports have been more  bearish vs expectations than bullish.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

     Latest Release    Mar 04, 2021    Actual-98B    Forecast-136B    Previous-338B

  MEGA Bearish

          https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386                                                                                               

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Mar 04, 2021 10:30-98B-136B-338B
Feb 25, 2021 10:30-338B-333B-237B
Feb 18, 2021 10:30-237B-252B-171B
Feb 11, 2021 10:30-171B-181B-192B
Feb 04, 2021 10:30-192B-192B-128B
Jan 28, 2021 10:30-128B-136B-187B


By metmike - March 7, 2021, 8:15 p.m.
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The natural gas rig count has bounced off of the lowest ever in the Summer, at 69, up to 92 but is still less than half of what it was 2 years ago.

By MarkB - March 8, 2021, 12:50 a.m.
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What I really think drives the seasonal, is the gas in storage. Maybe cold weather and some increased HDD's can also help. But gas in storage is still, in my mind, a big consideration.


We've are now coming out of the winter period, stored up supplies have been diminished, and is getting lower. The unexpected deep freeze a week ago, really pulled on storage. So from now til the first of May, it's a question of recovery. And with the rig count being half or less of what it normally is, that recovery may be slower this year. Which could promote a longer, higher, seasonal upswing.


JMHO

By metmike - March 8, 2021, 2:31 a.m.
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Thank Mark,

For sure the Spring starts the refill season.

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 8, 2021, 11:40 a.m.
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Mild Weather This Week Keeps Pressure on Natural Gas Futures Early

    March 8, 2021


From Natural Gas Intelligence this morning.


metmike: The last couple of  weather model forecast solutions have LESS HDD's. 

After the 2nd most bearish EIA in history vs expectations last Thursday https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66348/#66351

 and a very bearish technical formation/picture, it's going to take a big increase in HDD's to get ng turned around.....but it IS March and Winter IS over, so weather is taking a back seat. 


By WxFollower - March 8, 2021, 5:10 p.m.
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Sun 12Z GEFS added good bit more but  Sun 12Z EPS added 5-6 vs 12Z Fri when comparing the same days. Regardless, that’s ancient history now. Market opened near flat.

By metmike - March 8, 2021, 7 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

Great post on the historical bearish EIA surprise stats that very few people on  the planet would have. Few folks here would realize that. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66348/#66351


I keep bringing this up because its likely a big reason for why  ng could not respond very well to a forecast like this below........and  it is also March too. 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 8, 2021, 7:09 p.m.
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NGI after the close on Monday!

Absent Demand Drivers, April Natural Gas Futures Falter Fourth Consecutive Day; Cash Prices Fall

 Natural gas futures on Monday tumbled for a fourth straight day amid mild weather, demand uncertainty and steady production. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.664/MMBtu, down 3.7 cents day/day. May fell 4.1 cents to $2.698. Weak near-term weather demand also weighed on cash prices. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 25.5 cents to $2.500.… 


metmike: Bearish hangover from the historically bearish EIA surprise last Thursday + we're in the 2nd week of March. Winter is over!  Increasing HDD's this week,  can still generate some buying but the bullish impact is MUCH less than if this was a month or more ago. 

Seasonals are also very strong and storage has dropped to less than the 5 year average, so there are other potential bullish elements.

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 9, 2021, 11:04 a.m.
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Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 9, 2021, 5:35 p.m.
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US EIA lifts forecasts for 2021-22 natural gas and power consumption      

     https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/030921-us-eia-lifts-forecasts-for-2021-22-natural-gas-and-power-consumption 


The agency estimated that gas consumption in February was the highest on record, at 111.8 Bcf/d, as cold weather blanketed much of the US, driving up demand for heating and power generation.

  

      

  

As such, the agency raised gas consumption estimates by 3.66 Bcf/d to 102.6 Bcf/d for Q1, and forecast that gas storage inventories at the end of March would be 13% less than the five-year average. It also forecast that inventories would end the 2021 injection period at almost 3.7 Tcf, or 2% lower than the five-year average.

"February saw one of the largest monthly working natural gas storage withdrawals on record in the United States, including a record withdrawal of 156 Bcf in Texas's South Central region," said EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley in a statement discussing the report.

By metmike - March 9, 2021, 5:40 p.m.
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metmike: You can see the wide range above and below the forecast below...........always great uncertainty in a forecast like this, especially because the weather is unknown.

EIA said LNG exports averaged 7.5 Bcf/d in February, down 23% from the prior month's estimates, on logistical constraints, inclement weather and lower feedstocks, which were affected by extreme cold.

  

"EIA expects US LNG exports to continue their seasonal decline from March through May, averaging 7.8 Bcf/d in this period," the report said.

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 9, 2021, 5:42 p.m.
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Uptick for coal in generation mix

  

After rising 2.1% in 2021, US electricity consumption was expected to grow another 1.4% in 2022, the EIA said, compared with the 3.8% decline in 2020.

  With extreme cold boosting gas prices in Q1 this year, the EIA raised its forecast for coal-fired generation in 2021 by 6% to 887 billion kWh.

  And coal's share of the US generating fuel mix was forecast to average 23% in both 2021 and 2022, growing from 20% in 2020.

  Gas-fired generation was seen making up 36% of the generating fuel mix in 2021, and 35% in 2022, dampened by a 44% forecast rise in the price of gas delivered to power generators between 2020 and 2021.

  The agency expected renewables to continue their rise, reaching 21% of the generation mix in 2021 and 23% in 2022, while nuclear declines to 20% in 2021 and 19% in 2022.

     

By metmike - March 10, 2021, 2:54 a.m.
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0z models are a bit milder yet!

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 10, 2021, 11:14 a.m.
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Weather Giving No Help to Natural Gas Bulls as Futures Slide Early

  metmike: The ability for warmer weather may be running out of steam for pressuring ng lower this late in the heating season. This could represent value for buyers....especially with strong seasonals and storage below the 5 year average.

By MarkB - March 10, 2021, 6:08 p.m.
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-73 prediction. Via Investing.com

It's gonna be an interesting night.

By metmike - March 10, 2021, 6:36 p.m.
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Thanks Mark!

Ahead of Storage Report, April Natural Gas Futures Find Modest Momentum

  By Kevin DobbsMarch 10, 2021
 

Natural gas futures avoided falling further into the red on Wednesday despite expectations for a modest storage withdrawal and forecasts that called for continued mild weather and light heating demand.

Evening Market 

The April Nymex contract settled at $2.692/MMBtu, up 3.0 cents day/day. The prompt month had declined the five previous trading sessions. May advanced 3.2 cents on Wednesday to $2.728.

 

NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. eked out a 1.5-cent gain to $2.485, snapping a four-day losing streak amid comfortable spring temperatures.

 

Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy at StoneX Financial Inc., told NGI that the advances in futures likely reflected a technical bounce – as opposed to a response to a new catalyst – with speculators shifting from sellers to buyers in anticipation of prices bottoming out after the multi-day slump.

 

But he noted that futures have traded in a wide range most of this year – exacerbated by the Arctic freeze that forced production declines last month – and that it was difficult to pinpoint a fundamental reason for speculators to shift into buying mode.

 

“The market is sort of fumbling around, not quite sure what it wants to do,” Saal said.

 

Overnight weather data shifted cooler and shed expected demand from the prior day, forecasters noted, with power burns weak to date in March amid the onset of spring weather across much of the Lower 48.

 

“The pattern still does not deviate too far from normal, though we have moved the 11- to 15-day time frame a little on the warm side of normal” with Wednesday’s changes, Bespoke Weather Services said. Both the domestic and European weather models moved about seven gas-weighted degree days from a day earlier.

 

“Longer range expectations remain for a warm lean late month into April, which is still bearish,” the firm added. “As such, we are not expecting weather to assist natural gas bulls much anytime soon, at least until entering the true warm season.”

 

Production, meanwhile, has recovered from the losses in Texas last month. At the same time, liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels have tapered off this week. After topping 11 Bcf last Friday – a high since the Texas freeze and near the levels seen prior to mid-February — LNG feed gas volumes have hovered near 10 Bcf for five straight days, NGI data show.

 

“We have yet to see LNG volumes move back to their highs…while production did return to its pre-freeze-off levels,” Bespoke said. “A bigger hindrance is a massive weakness in power burns, even on a weather-adjusted basis. This is at least partially due to huge wind generation, especially in Texas. In short, there is simply no catalyst to send prices back higher as of right now.”

 

All eyes now turn to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) storage report Thursday.

 

NGI’s model predicted a 104 Bcf pull for the week ending March 5. Last year, EIA recorded a 72 Bcf withdrawal for the period, and the five-year average is a pull of 89 Bcf.

 

A Bloomberg survey showed respondents predicting a median 78 Bcf withdrawal for this week’s EIA report, with estimates ranging from draws of 58 Bcf to 104 Bcf.

 

 

A Reuters poll showed estimates ranging from withdrawals of 39 Bcf to 104 Bcf, with a median decline in stocks of 76 Bcf.

 

Saal said the wide ranges in the polls reflected the uncertainty that emerged after EIA’s inventory report last week.

 

Utilities pulled 98 Bcf of gas from storage in the week ended Feb. 26, a far lighter pull than market expectations for a withdrawal in the 130s Bcf or more, depending on the poll.

 

“I missed by a mile,” Saal said. He estimated an 85 Bcf withdrawal for this week’s report.

 
Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 10, 2021, 6:39 p.m.
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These were the 7 day temperatures for tomorrows EIA report........pretty mild/bearish!

After last weeks bearish shocker, we could see a fairly small drawdown.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210304.7day.mean.F.gif

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 11, 2021, 11:07 a.m.
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Ahead of Storage Report, April Natural Gas Futures Find Modest Momentum

Natural gas futures avoided falling further into the red on Wednesday despite expectations for a modest storage withdrawal and forecasts that called for continued mild weather and light heating demand. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.692/MMBtu, up 3.0 cents day/day. The prompt month had declined the five previous trading sessions. May advanced 3.2 cents… 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 11, 2021, 11:10 a.m.
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 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 5, 2021   |  Released: March 11, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 18, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                  -52 BCF   BEARISH!                                                                                                                                                               

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/05/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region03/05/2102/26/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East350  383  -33  -33   430  -18.6  382  -8.4  
Midwest440  465  -25  -25   533  -17.4  473  -7.0  
Mountain113  117  -4  -4   98  15.3  109  3.7  
Pacific205  210  -5  -5   200  2.5  188  9.0  
South Central685  670  15  15   790  -13.3  782  -12.4  
   Salt176  159  17  17   234  -24.8  238  -26.1  
   Nonsalt509  511  -2  -2   556  -8.5  544  -6.4  
Total1,793  1,845  -52  -52   2,050  -12.5  1,934  -7.3  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,793 Bcf as of Friday, March 5, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 52 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 257 Bcf less than last year at this time and 141 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,934 Bcf. At 1,793 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - March 11, 2021, 11:19 a.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

             Latest Release  Mar 11, 2021  Actual-52B  Forecast-73B  Previous-98B    

                    

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Mar 18, 2021 10:30  -98B
Mar 11, 2021 10:30-52B-73B-98B
Mar 04, 2021 10:30-98B-136B-338B
Feb 25, 2021 10:30-338B-333B-237B
Feb 18, 2021 10:30-237B-252B-171B
Feb 11, 2021 10:30-171B-181B-192B


Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 11, 2021, 2:07 p.m.
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By WxFollower - March 11, 2021, 5:56 p.m.
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Last week's report's EIA miss vs the WSJ survey was +46. Today's was +26. They add to +72. Was this the most bearish two week period vs the WSJ survey on record back to 2003? Yes, but only barely: 12/30/05 was +57 and 1/6/06 was +14 making that two week period +71 vs the +72 that has just occurred!

By metmike - March 11, 2021, 6:08 p.m.
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Thanks a ton Larry!

Only you would have the information too!

The previous records occurred during holiday weeks which makes this even more impressive.

But ng refuses to go any lower...............at the moment.

By WxFollower - March 11, 2021, 6:26 p.m.
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Mike,

  You're welcome. NG kneejerk right after EIA took it down only just over 2 cents within 7 seconds (session lows) but then it roared back up 5.5 cents above that low less than 4 minutes later to over 3 cents higher than the pre-EIA last price (well before almost all of the 12Z GFs data had been released)! This was a classic example of pre planned short covering on the news I think.

 Overall, 12Z wx data was pretty neutral. So, yes, NG is hanging in very well considering the bearishness of today's EIA release!

 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 12, 2021, 2:37 a.m.
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Week 2 of the 0Z euro ensembles came out much milder after the early part was colder and we went from the plus side and new highs tonight to new lows in just a couple of minutes time.

By metmike - March 12, 2021, 2:51 a.m.
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I think you may be  right Larry about your observation of how the market acted immediately after the release of the EIA report.

I’ve lost more money trading ng after EIA reports than all the other days combined.

Not yesterday though.

By metmike - March 12, 2021, 11:40 a.m.
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By metmike - March 14, 2021, 6:18 p.m.
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Expected moderate sized gap lower on the open tonight.

Is it a downside break away gap lower?

Last 2 EIA reports were the most bearish in history and the weather is bearish.


Other factors are bullish. If the gap is filled, it would put in a gap and crap, bearish selling exhaustion formation technically.

By metmike - March 15, 2021, 10:44 a.m.
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By MarkB - March 16, 2021, 12:12 a.m.
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GFS showing a deep reaching cold trough at the end of week 2, moving from the plains to the east. It's not very big. But might be an excuse for some bullish action.

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 16, 2021, 3:55 a.m.
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Hi mark,

I sent you a lengthy reply about all 5 main models for the last oz solutions....but cable doing maintenance cut me off and it couldn’t be posted.

Overall the solutions were slightly more bearish I mainlybeish.


Im tethering off my cell phone and will post the trapped previous commemts later this morning. 

By MarkB - March 16, 2021, 9:24 a.m.
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I agree. Over the long term, everything is still bearish. But there's a psychology at play as well for some.

By metmike - March 16, 2021, 12:11 p.m.
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Thanks Mark!

That post of mine earlier is now ancient history.


Here's the latest from NGI:

Forecasts Offer Little Help as Natural Gas Futures Stanch Bleeding in Early Trading

 Coming off a steep decline in the previous session, natural gas futures clawed back a couple cents in early trading Tuesday even as forecasters continued to point to a bearish temperature outlook into late March.  After dropping 11.6 cents in the previous settle, the April Nymex contract was trading 1.9 cents higher to $2.503/MMBtu at… 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 16, 2021, 3:13 p.m.
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We went up and tested the bottom of the decent sized gap lower from Sunday Night's open......even filled in a few ticks but that held.

If/when we fill that gap, we will put in a selling exhaustion formation, gap and crap that might signal the lows are in for this move.

By metmike - March 16, 2021, 4:15 p.m.
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European model was colder which is helping the bulls right now.

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 16, 2021, 6:38 p.m.
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Higher Natural Gas Prices Said Needed to Avoid Supply Shortage by Year-End

 

Although the natural gas supply outlook has improved in recent weeks, analysts are steadfast in their convictions that higher prices are needed in the coming months to prevent a significant supply shortfall next winter. A Goldman Sachs Commodities Research team, led by Samantha Dart, said this week it is maintaining a $3.25/MMBtu price forecast for… 

 

By metmike - March 16, 2021, 6:44 p.m.
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https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs


Natural Gas rig count steady at 92 for the past month. 

One year ago, the rig count was at 106 and crashing to the lowest number in history  on July 24, 2020 at 68. 


By MarkB - March 16, 2021, 11:07 p.m.
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I've always taken Goldie Socks with a grain of salt in their public announcements. But it's pretty much up and up, in a way. We still have plenty of gas in storage for this time of year, in fact, enough to stay on the bearish side for the moment. But not by much. 


May will get here soon. And the drawdown for power generation and exports will begin to increase. In the back of my mind, I can't help but think of the possibility that the producers will wait it out as long as they think they can, bringing the price up,  before bringing more rigs back online in time to keep up with demand. But if they come back too fast, then prices would fall again. 


According to Investing.com, the prediction is still -73. I think that with last weeks mild weather, it will still come in under expectations. And model forecasts aren't going to help much. GFS maintained milder conditions, with the deep cold trough taken out of the run.


jmho

By metmike - March 17, 2021, 1:49 a.m.
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Thanks Mark,

Here's the temps from last week for Thursday's EIA report. 

Very mild in the Center. After the 2 biggest bearish surprises (combined) in history, one would think that the guesses will be adjusted to be much more bearish this time. -73 BCF seems like too big of a drawdown to me, so I agree with you Mark.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210312.7day.mean.F.gif

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 17, 2021, 6:48 p.m.
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Luck of the Irish Eludes April Natural Gas Futures

 Natural gas futures dropped back into the red on Wednesday as traders mulled forecasts for mild spring weather and its dampening effect on demand along with polls that showed expectations for only a modest storage withdrawal. The April Nymex contract declined 3.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.528/MMBtu. May fell 4.2 cents to $2.555. The…

By MarkB - March 18, 2021, 2:08 a.m.
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Don't know that the luck of the Irish has anything to do with it.

However, I am awake at the time when Europe should be awake, and making their actions in the NG market. And so far, they have been rather silent. Weather is still mild. Expectations for the report tomorrow, are now in question. Investing.com, has updated their prediction from -73 to -17.  That seems a little low to me. So the European traders might be wise in their lack of action. I think I will just have to sit on the sidelines until the market figures it out. Makes one say "Hhhmmm..."

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 18, 2021, 11:24 a.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 12, 2021   |  Released: March 18, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 25, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                     -11 BCF Bearish but the market can't make new lows on it                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(03/12/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region03/12/2103/05/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East328  350  -22  -22   414  -20.8  353  -7.1  
Midwest426  440  -14  -14   514  -17.1  449  -5.1  
Mountain114  113  1  1   96  18.8  107  6.5  
Pacific199  205  -6  -6   199  0.0  186  7.0  
South Central715  685  30  30   811  -11.8  779  -8.2  
   Salt197  176  21  21   245  -19.6  237  -16.9  
   Nonsalt519  509  10  10   566  -8.3  543  -4.4  
Total1,782  1,793  -11  -11   2,035  -12.4  1,875  -5.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Notice: Automated retrieval policy

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,782 Bcf as of Friday, March 12, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 11 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 253 Bcf less than last year at this time and 93 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,875 Bcf. At 1,782 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - March 18, 2021, 11:27 a.m.
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  U.S. Natural Gas Storage 

           Latest Release    Mar 18, 2021   Actual-11B    Forecast-17B    Previous-52B                                                                                                                                                            

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Mar 18, 2021 10:30-11B-17B-52B
Mar 11, 2021 11:30-52B-73B-98B
Mar 04, 2021 11:30-98B-136B-338B
Feb 25, 2021 11:30-338B-333B-237B
Feb 18, 2021 11:30-237B-252B-171B
Feb 11, 2021 11:30-171B-181B-192B

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By metmike - March 18, 2021, 11:28 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Hover in Red After Bearish Storage Report

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 11 Bcf from natural gas storage for the week ended March 12. The result fell shy of analyst estimates and punctuated market concerns about weakened weather-driven demand. “It was much warmer than normal over the northern and central U.S., while slightly cool over… 

By MarkB - March 18, 2021, 11:55 a.m.
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New lows on the daily. Still too much gas in storage to prompt a bullish position. Winter is effectively over. Will see what the rig count does tomorrow.

By metmike - March 19, 2021, 12:48 p.m.
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As mentioned yesterday after the 3rd bearish EIA in a row and a bit bearish temps.........we were unable to make new lows on increasing bearish news.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66348/#66797


Thursday close from NGI:

Despite LNG Staying Power, Natural Gas Futures Extend Downward Slide Following Bearish EIA Inventory Report

 


Natural gas futures fell further on Thursday — the 10th decline in the last 12 trading sessions — after a bearish storage report and forecasts that showed continued expectations for moderating heating demand. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.481/MMBtu, down 4.7 cents day/day. May lost 4.4 cents to $2.511. Diminished near-term weather demand also… 

By metmike - March 19, 2021, 12:50 p.m.
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By metmike - March 21, 2021, 6:12 p.m.
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Fri close comments NGI:

April Natural Gas Futures Forge Ahead as LNG Volumes Reach Record Levels, Economy Musters Momentum

 Natural gas futures on Friday edged higher as robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels and a brightening economic picture offset festering worry about weak weather-driven demand heading into the spring shoulder season. The April Nymex contract climbed 5.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.535/MMBtu. May rose in tandem, gaining 5.5 cents to $2.566. It marked…



Sunday PM: Weather is providing no help early. No sign of major cooling needed to inspire higher HDD's but Winter is over anyway.

In just over a month, we'll be watching CDD's the most from residential cooling. 

Re: Re: NG 3/7
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By WxFollower - March 22, 2021, 3:03 p.m.
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 Continue NG posts here please:

 NG 3/22/21+ - MarketForum