yes, i think interest rates will continue to rise.
if you want to go long (an ETF, rather than being in a bond contract), check out TBT.
currently at 20. i expect this will go up to 30 before correcting for several months.
then it should head up above 40, maybe closer to 50. (over the next couple years).
of course i could be wrong.
https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/interest-rates
A better economy and the prospect of Congress passing a third stimulus package in March are pushing up 10-year Treasury note yields. Yields also ticked up this week when initial unemployment claims declined. But they have been on an uptrend ever since the second stimulus package in December. With razor-thin control of the Senate, plus the House of Representatives and the White House, Democrats are in a position to pass more stimulus legislation, such as $1,400 payments to individuals and aid to state and local governments. Any boost to economic growth tends to push up interest rates, as the demand for funds grows and inflation possibly rises, as well. Larger budget deficits will also raise rates as the supply of government debt offered to investors grows. The 10-year rate is currently around 1.5%. Expect it to rise to at least 2% by the end of the year.
Higher int will slow down home purchases, I would think I see both Florida and Texas are wide open with no mask or any business restrictions
How long before other states follow
Vaccinations plus just plain old tired of unelected officials making the rules
If more states open up we should see an increase in GDP
I see NYC legislature took back Cuomos emergency powers
Although NYC has it's different problems, if other states take away emergency powers, one would think inflation would increase
Strong case for rising int rates unless Fed can stop inflation
of course the bond market is supply and demand.
one of the main reasons why interest rates have not gone up in europe, is because the central bank there buys massive amounts of bonds (to keep their govts afloat). close to half of all bonds there are bought by the central bank. massive artificial demand means prices are high and rates are low.
i expect over the next couple decades, we may see our u.s. govt do more of this. but for now they are only doing it on a smaller scale.
in europe, if rates were to rise, then when the next recession comes you would see countries like italy, spain, france would have to dramatically slash welfare spending, and the would be massive riots and revolts.
the central bank in europe is trying to keep govts there from collapsing.
they do NOT believe in free markets. they do not want the market to punish them (for their excessive budgets).
In Europe I think Germany has about as much influence as the central bank
If Germany pulls the plug and refuses to back the central banks who in turn are almost forced to back the southern part of the EU, one wonders if you you are even more correct about riots and instability
I wonder if the EU could survive such a division of deficits vs austerity and balanced budgets in Germany
German produces many goods that the world will buy and thus enjoy surplus or at least decent balance of payments
The lower states don't seem to have this ability and thus the division of those who want free stuff vs, those who produce stuff the world will buy.
Going to be tough to keep the EU from falling apart. IMHO
Will Germany be willing to accept inflation if they think the lower states and central bank are causing problems for Germany
What can Germany do and keep the EU from falling apart. Perhaps one day Germany will decide the EU is not such a good idea for the interests of Germany. I don't know. Just tossing out ideas