Two Weeks in Review
1 response | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - Jan. 29, 2021, 2:10 p.m.

Housing Market Index M/MJan-2186.0083.00C-
Housing Starts M/MDec-201.547M1.669MC+
Housing Permits M/MDec-201.639M1.709MC+
Existing Home SalesM/MDec-206.690M6.760MC+
New Home Sales M/MDec-20841K842KC
Pending Home Sales M/MDec-20-2.60-0.30C-
Case-Shiller HPI M/MNov-201.601.40C
FHFA HPI M/MJan-201.501.00C
Philly Fed Mfg M/MJan-2111.1026.50B
Chicago FedM/MDec-200.270.52C+
Dallas Fed Mfg M/MJan-219.707.00C
Richmond Fed MfgM/MJan-2119.0014.00C
Kansas City Fed Mfg M/MJan-2114.0017.00C+
Chicago PMIJan-2159.5063.80B-
Durable Goods M/MDec-200.900.20C
Core Capital Goods M/MDec-200.400.60C+
Jobless Claims W/W 11/16/2021965K900KC+
Jobless Claims W/W 21/16/2021900.00847.00C+
Consumer Confidence M/MJan-2188.6089.30C+
Consumer Sentiment M/MJan-2179.2079.00C
State Street Investors Confidence M/MJan-21104.10100.70C
GDP Q/QQ4:2033.404.00C
Leading Indicators M/MJan-210.600.30C
Personal Income M/MDec-20-1.100.60C+
Personal Spending M/MDec-20-0.40-0.20C-

Lot's of data for the last two weeks. (Most of it this week)

Jobless Claims are moving in the right direction (-118k  in 2 weeks) but remain far too high. 

Consumers are stable to slightly improved at a still depressed level.  State Street Investors moderated a bit but remain at an historically high level.

Personal Income was up slightly and Spending contracted slightly less, in line with their mood. 

1st Estimate for GDP:Q4 came in at 4,  well down from earlier forecasts of 10+. Further downward revisions can be expected as we get the final numbers for Q4, which as we know,  started showing contraction in the late Nov through December time frame.

Leading Indicators remain positive, largely due to Housing Permits, but showing moderation.

Speaking of Housing, the numbers remain strong,  but we continue to see the Housing Market Index slip.  It's still in a decent range,  but moderation in Housing should be expected.

 Mfg remains a strong bright spot ranging from good to excellent.  Worst news is the moderation in Durable Goods to a still positive .2.

Overall,  a pretty good week based on the numbers, but I remain cautious.  I will go out on a limb and give the week(s) a C+  and a Suck Factor of 8, with a little help from the falling Jobless Claims

By metmike - Jan. 29, 2021, 2:57 p.m.
Like Reply

Especially comprehensive/specific comments to go with the data this time and we are loving you for bringing this to us Tim!

Here are last years reports, not quite completely updated with all of them(from Jan) :