KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 827.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 313.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3917.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
8:30 AM ET. December CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.2%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings
10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 485.459M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -8.01M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.081M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.519M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 158.419M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.39M)
Refinery Usage (previous 80.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.054M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.263M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
2:00 PM ET. December Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 12,491.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,125.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,368.96.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3817.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 3637.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3628.61.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the November high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-16 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 170-09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-16. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.171 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.060. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.171. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $50.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.45.
March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $161.74. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $153.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.15.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $147.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.56.
March Henry natural gas was higher overnight and trading above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.713. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 20th high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.611 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.537. Second support is the December 28thlow crossing at 2.268.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $91.16 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at $88.15 is the next downside target.First resistance is the December 21st highcrossing at $90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.16. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at $88.15.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.77 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $125.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.77. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.3456 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3456. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3387.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1187.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.57. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, December's low crossing at 1.0956 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0981. First support is December's low crossing at 0.0956. Second support is the November's low crossing at 0.0948.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the overnight decline, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1893.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1893.70. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1962.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1817.10. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver was was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.025 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.463 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.025. Second support is November's low crossing at $21.960.
March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.7340. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the December 23rd low crossing at 3.4780. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4276.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.69 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.39. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.69 3/4.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.75 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.30 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.11 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.91 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.71 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $6.34 3/4. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.51. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.89 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.98 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.98 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $424.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $440.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $424.30.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March 2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 38.73.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.10 at $68.58.
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.85.
February cattle closed down $0.70 at $112.70
February cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $3.10 at $133.80.
March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's low crossing at $133.73. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.