With the final Q1:18 GDP estimate coming out today, estimated at a relatively tepid 2.2%, it's time to start looking at early estimates for Q2:18. The referenced estimate is one of the higher I've seen at 4.9%, but all are north of 4%.
Remember the days when the "experts" assured us that the days of GDP in excess of 3% were over?
I wonder what will happen to the federal budget when they take a slightly smaller slice of a much larger pie?
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-q2-gdp-tracking-update-revised-higher-nomura-201806271708
"Given the stronger-than-expected net exports in May, we revised up our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.7pp to 4.9% from 4.2%. Incoming information points to an acceleration in growth in Q2. While some of the positive contribution from goods exports could wane in coming quarters as trade disputes intensify and foreign growth slows, domestic demand boosted by expansionary fiscal policy should support economic activity."
seems to me this just another story that Trump told while a candidate and everybody on the left mocked him for months. He went thru several of these last nite in a rally speech to a rousing crowd in North Dakota. Manufacturers confidence all time high over 95%, steal industry once dead now building new plants, fighting all the naysayers in every direction not to mention his own justice dept and FBI Trump just keeps winning....and so sad when he wins America wins and when America wins the world wins. And even better the left is in full retreat.
The left has created the monster of commy socialists that have taken over the party to point that the old dems have totally lost control to the point of a wacked out 28 year commy in NY has defeated the heir apparent to Pelosi....how is the lib monster looking fellas?
i would bet that the 4.9 estimate gets revised lower.
but even if it gets revised down to 4%, that is still a good figure compared to what we have had recently.
good? really good? try good times 3
Hi Tim
Can I say that for my thinking ,4.9% change falls under "extreme".
Im always skeptical of extremes -unless it s doing my bottom line justice-doncha know.
John-JPJT
That was my initial take as well. I did say that 4.9% was the highest of the estimates. At the time, All were above 4%. We'll see a lot of flux over the next month as the assorted components get final data. Needless to say, it appears we are considerably higher than we've been.
The lower range, Atlanta Fed was 4.5% has been revised down to 3.8 as of the 29th. I'd probably give this a higher weight as it is a division of the fed and based on more recent data.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf
Expect lots of adjustments between now and Final # for 1st estimate on 7/27.
Don't know why anyone should be surprised with a jump in GDP given the massive fiscal stimulus on top of a budget that forever and a day had been running big deficits. The surprise would be if there wasn't a sizable jump.
Whatever happened to the Tea Party Pubs who's whole reason to be was pushing for fiscal restraint?
I'll believe the deficit won't go up when I see it.
I'm reminded of what my old boss once said to his leasing agents, "Anyone can give it away".
Interesting look below at how graphing the GDP can be done differently to make the results look a bit different for some administrations.
Am not an advocate for this particular source......just showing the data:
https://www.weblinenews.com/gdp-growth-graph-misleading/
Am not advocating this source either (Kiplinger)...........other than they know a lot more than me about this particular topic:
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-gdp-growth-rate-and-forecast.html
"Tax cuts for both businesses and individuals should goose the economy going forward, but likely not as much as President Trump would like. Improving business profitability should generate capital spending, but some of the bigger profits will go toward stock buybacks and shareholder returns. Increased wealth and burgeoning home values will encourage consumers to spend a little more, though recent uncertainties in the stock market could scale that back. Tax cuts for individuals will help, but wealthier taxpayers, who tend to save more, are likely benefiting the most.
Because of strengthening GDP and inflation, look for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates twice more this year, in September and December. With the change in Federal Reserve Board members, there are now definitely more pro-rate-hike board members (who are worried about a potential rise in inflation) than those who are against."
Hi PJ.. How the budget shakes out for this fiscal year remains to be seen, but we've seen good results in the past when the fed takes a smaller slice of a larger pie. One month does not a year make, but April of this year saw a record monthly surplus from record federal revenues. Caveat: for obvious reasons, April typically shows a surplus. The notable aspect is the significant record level.
"The U.S. took in $510 billion in receipts in April and spent $296 billion, leaving the Treasury with a record monthly surplus of $214 billion. The prior record, set in April 2001, was about $190 billion."
Buy Low.... Stay High...
M.A.G.A.