more anomolies explained
6 responses | 1 like
Started by mcfarm - Dec. 6, 2020, 5:18 p.m.
By mcfarm - Dec. 6, 2020, 6:02 p.m.
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remember when Hillarys cattle trade was explained as being equal to flipping a penny and getting tails around a thousand straight times.....seems Biden win would be about a 1000 times Hils thousand.....

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2020, 8:38 p.m.
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I know what happened, why and how in the Hillary Clinton cattle trading scandal better than anybody.

For this to be like that, Trump would have had to be favored in every poll by double digits and then somehow lost the election with clear evidence of fraud.

We know with 100% certainty what happened with the cattle futures. Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas and had control of legislation that would make a difference of millions of dollars for Tyson Foods in Arkanas.

Tyson foods arranged for a $100,000 bribe to Bill, via using Hillary. Tyson, obviously had strong connections to the meat industry in the commodity/futures. They had accounts with Refco and one of their main brokers was Robert "Red" Bone. 

Hillary just happened to open an account with him. He had previously been suspended for violations  and after an investigation of his and Refco's activities for the year that Clinton traded, they received the biggest fine imposed ever to that point in trading history.

One can guess that there are sealed records which would clearly show Hillary's role but she must have testified against them or did something to get off, thanks to her husband being the governor of Arkansas. 

2 decades ago, I had 3 different accounts at a Lind Waldock(and a few at some other firms). In order to make things easy, I placed just one order for all 3 accounts in a group account. When the broker got the fill, he would split up the order and place it in the 3 accounts according according to my direction. It was usually, for every 1 contract in my IRA account and 1 contract for my wife's company(that I was trading for) there would be 10 contracts for my main, much bigger account.

So I would place orders that usually were in increments of 12 contracts. 10-1-1 or 50-5-5 for instance. My main account was up in the 6 digits and the other accounts were worth around 10% of that.

Sometimes the increments were different and I often got different prices but always had the opportunity to tell the broker afterwards how I wanted to divy up the entire order. At any one time, I could have told him to put all the contracts in one of the accounts or none in that account and all of them in another account. 

I'm sure that her broker did the same thing with other clients and with Hillary, he simply just put all the good trades in her account. 

One way that he could have done this effectively to help her is to have 2 groups accounts, with hers included in both of them and place an order to sell 10 contracts of cattle futures in one group account, then put an order to buy 10 contracts of cattle futures in the other account(both group accounts had an account from a connection to Tyson Foods). At the end of the day(she did alot of day trading) the position that made money went into Hillary's account and the one that lost money went into another account in the group account.

So almost all her trades made money because the winning trades went into her account and the losing trades went into the Tyson account.  Between the 2 group accounts, the sum of those trades would be $0 but Hillary would get the winner and the Tyson connection would get the loser. At the end of the year, this Tyson account(s), which likely started well into the 6 digits lost $100,000 and it came from Hillary's profits.

There actually could have been several other accounts in this group account that Clinton was part of. 

This also helps to explain how she was assigned positions(after trades were assigned) that were 10 times greater than the margin requirements, especially early on. If the Tyson account(s) were well into the 6 figures, they were not violating margin requirements when putting the trade on or having it if there were some huge accounts in the group account.

It was only after closing the trade that it got assigned to Hillary's account.

The funniest part about this story was they asked her why she suddenly got interested in trading cattle futures. A person with 0 knowledge of this industry. She claimed that she and Bill owed some debt and had no money and she thought this might be a good way to get it.

The funny part actually was her response to this question: "after you made all that money.........turning 1,000 into 100,000 in a year, why in the world did you quit???"

Hillary paraphrased: I was pregnant with Chelsea and it was too stressful.

1. As a trader for 28 years, I can tell you that stress is the exact wrong/opposite word to describe the emotion of somebody with that success. EUPHORIA and CONFIDENCE are 2 that come to mind.

2. Of all the women (and men) on the planet, Hillary Clinton is in an elite class for being able to handle the most extreme stress imagineable to a human being.

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2020, 8:39 p.m.
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Hillary Clinton cattle futures controversy

Likelihood of results

Various publications sought to analyze the likelihood of Clinton's successful results. Clinton made her money by betting mostly on a market downturn at a time when cattle prices actually doubled.[13] The editor of the Journal of Futures Markets said in April 1994, "This is like buying ice skates one day and entering the Olympics a day later. She took some extraordinary risks."[3] Her activities involved exposure to losses that could have been greater than her family's net worth if the market had turned sharply against her.[14] The former head of the IRS chief counsel’s Commodities Industry Specialization Team expressed skepticism that a novice trader could make such a return.[15] One analysis performed by Auburn University and published in the Journal of Economics and Finance claimed to find that the odds of a return as large as Clinton obtained during the period in question were about one in 31 trillion.

metmike: Glad you brought up the cattle trading mcfarm. I love telling that story.

I can tell you, however that the results of this election are not even in the vicinity of the outside periphery of being close to being like the story about Clintons cattle trading. 

You will likely believe it though because you have convinced yourself to only believe sources that tell you what you want to believe.

By mcfarm - Dec. 7, 2020, 5:54 a.m.
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fascinating read MM.....some of those details are coming back to my memory

by the way the statistics guy on the link being interviewed gave pretty detailed review....did you or larry or joj even give it a listen? staring to wonder if you guys are doing what you are accusing the other side of doing....sure seems that way.

Duerchawitz and Starr on last night. If there are 2 guys more versed in the way this republic is supposed to work I do not know who they would be. Both are entirely skeptical of a Biden win and want to see an actual investigation verses say a journalists {that's a laugh} like Chris Wallace who instead of debating with his guest was way more worried about correcting him in calling Joe Biden his name instead of the media name " president elect" God what an awful excuse has Wallace turned into.

By 7475 - Dec. 7, 2020, 8:51 a.m.
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mm,never heard it explained that way and really didnt realize "assignments" like that were possible.

Opens up a whole new world-thanks

By metmike - Dec. 7, 2020, 3:09 p.m.
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They may have tightened up rules on this since 20+ years ago but in those days, I experienced how lax the rules were for years.

I wanted my wife’s company to do well, so I would always put the best fills in their account and worst ones in my big account.

When you were trading size back then, the difference in price could sometimes be significant.

This was in the bad old the broker with a huge order and wait 30 minutes to hear back sometimes......then find out your fill price was a trade that happened 15 minutes after placing the order because some greedy  local guy on the floor used it as an opportunity to pocket a few ticks worth of profits.

Then be told that it was too busy on the floor and they were swamped with orders.

Funny how my fill would usually be near the low of the range in trade prices for the minutes when it was filled.

That’s how they made a living.....skimming a few ticks off of hundreds of trades all day from traders like me.

Now you just push a button on your screen and are instantly filled at the price you expect from seeing all the bids and offers.