Truth on Rising Sea levels
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Started by metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 11:24 a.m.

This is in response to joj's request. Like usual, it's probably much more than what he wanted (-:

First, for perspective are some samples of the many examples of statements that illustrate the greatly exaggerated versions of the truth, sold to us as science. In some cases it takes something with a grain of truth and amplifies it well beyond what the science supports.  There has in fact been global warming/climate change and humans are probably responsible for at least half of it. I will focus on data below that tells us the real science of sea levels increasing. 

Bernie Sanders: ‘Major Cities Going Under Water’ in ‘8 or 9 Years’ Due to Climate Change     


This is nothing new as that false narrative has been repeated for over 3 decades now.

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked


   UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ "A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. 

   Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP."

   He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. 


metmike: The benefits from climate change for most life on this planet outweigh the negatives by a factor of 10 to 1 right now(they max out at around 3-5 deg. F warmer) and the increase in the beneficial gas, CO2(the building block of all life-not pollution) is only half the optimal level for life at 416 ppm.

Cold still kills 15 times more people than heat(it used to be 20 times) and 200+ times more non human life(what happens ever Winter?). The planet is massively greening up(not dying) and crop yields are setting new records because of climate change/+CO2 as the last 40 years have featured the best weather/climate in the last 1,000 years. 

However, it's not all one sided. There ARE negatives associated with global warming. Here are 4 of them:

1. Slightly stronger hurricane potential.

2. 6% more moisture in the air so more rain and an increase in the intensity of high end flooding events.

3. Heat waves slightly hotter but  global warming has affected the coldest places, during the coldest times of year the most which is why its actually moderating/reducing temperature gradients more than causing extremes. 

4. And the one that you are interested in seeing data on.........acceleration in the increase of sea levels. 

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 11:25 a.m.
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Actual measurements:

Below is a graph of sea levels going back 140 years. Things to note:

1. Sea levels were already increasing naturally 140 years ago, many decades prior to when humans burning fossil fuels could have had an influence. This also tells us that some of the recent warming was also natural, going back to when the Little Ice Age ended 200 years ago and helps explain why all the global climate models have been too warm-they use the assumption that ALL the warming was from human emitted CO2 during that period and use flawed mathematical equations that amplify the affect of CO2 to be 2X what it should be. Actual measurements of that affect obtained recently prove this. It's indisputable science now that the models are amplifying the affect of CO2 warming by around double what it really is. If you disagree with that, then look at the sources in the link provided below this sea level discussion about what we have learned recently about the physics of CO2 and get back with me after reading them.

Predictions for future sea level acceleration are tied to the amount of global warming. The warmer that it is, the faster the oceans will increase on the models. Based on what we know now, with the models doubling the amount of warming that is really taking place, the high end projection models, of 8+ feet by 2100 have a near 0 chance of verifying and people that give us numbers higher than that(there are sources that claim 20-25 feet is a worst case scenario) are using pure science fiction.

Based on the objective science, empirical data and momentum/trend, seas increasing greater than an additional 2 feet by the end of this century is unlikely. This would be still be more than double the rate from the previous century. 

There are 4 main things that contribute to/affect absolute sea level increase(that ignore land changes):

1. The one that everybody knows.......melting LAND ice. Sea ice in the Arctic is already floating/displacing water and when it melts, it does NOT change the sea level. 0 Arctic ice left, if that happened would not increase seas. It's mainly Greenland and Antarctica melting land ice that contributes.

2. Thermal expansion. The oceans are 1 degree warmer, mainly near the surface and this has contributed to almost 1/3rd of the increase. 

3. We never hear much about this one and the contribution is even harder to measure but still significant. Runoff from aquifers. Trillions of gallons of underground water pulled up above the surface for human use that eventually runs off into the oceans. There is actually 70 times more ground water on the planet than there is total water in the worlds lakes.

4. Another factor, this one that takes away from the sea level increase(and a reason for why its not accelerating higher at the expected rate) is the  increase in moisture that the atmosphere can hold(from being warmer) that evaporates out of the oceans and gets dumped out with big increases in precipitation over land. This is redistributing the moisture back over land areas(that are massively greening up and holding additional moisture).

 The slope of the line below for rising sea levels is NOT linear as you knew already joj. It's has been accelerating up just a bit in the last few decades as one would expect from global warming. If you eye ball the graph, you can barely see that. Note that more accurate satellite measurements suggests the acceleration is less than the tidal gauges but the total increase in the last 140 years has been just less than a foot. 

Most of that time the increase was just under an inch/decade and currently, its just over an inch/decade. As would be pretty obvious by now in the discussion, major coastal cities will NOT be under water in 8 or 9 years as Bernie Sanders tells us because the oceans will only be up around another inch by then. And the United Nations was really wrong in their predictions of the same  catastrophic sea level increases happening since they started stating this in the late 1980's(from the article earlier as evidence). They continued to be wrong in  1999, 2009 and will be wrong again about their predictions made in 2019(and all the years in between) a very wide margin. But those constantly busting predictions continue to be repeated with impunity and serve as the basis of understanding that most people have acquired of rising sea levels. There has been zero accountability and instead, just reinforcement of the same fake science messages, repeated over and over and over to get people to except them as a truth.

In the 1990's I actually believed some of these worst case scenario predictions. But the observations/empirical data, failed predictions and what we've learned since then clearly tells us a different story. Fortunately, as an atmospheric scientist, I didn't need to rely on what was told to me by the gatekeepers of information on this topic. I always do my own research as an independent, objective scientist and always adhere to the scientific method. That means trying to prove that I'm wrong as much as looking for evidence that I'm right. Scientists should never declare the science is settled and debate is over in a field that we have learned a tremendous amount about in the last 3 decades with much more to learn.

This indicator describes how sea level has changed over time. The indicator describes two types of sea level changes: absolute and relative.

  • Line graph showing the cumulative changes in global average absolute sea level from 1880 to 2015.
    Download Data  Download Image 
    This graph shows cumulative changes in sea level for the world’s oceans since 1880, based on a combination of long-term tide gauge measurements and recent satellite measurements. This figure shows average absolute sea level change, which refers to the height of the ocean surface, regardless of whether nearby land is rising or falling. Satellite data are based solely on measured sea level, while the long-term tide gauge data include a small correction factor because the size and shape of the oceans are changing slowly over time. (On average, the ocean floor has been gradually sinking since the last Ice Age peak, 20,000 years ago.) The shaded band shows the likely range of values, based on the number of measurements collected and the precision of the methods used.
    Data sources: CSIRO, 2015;3 NOAA, 20164


By metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 11:26 a.m.
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Sea level projections:

I copied a graph of sea level increase forecasts from different models and some comments. If you read their comments, you get the complete opposite impression as I just gave. Global climate models are doubling the real amount of warming. Authentic, latest scientific measurements prove it now. Doubling the real warming on models means that sea level increase models will also greatly over forecast ice melt, thermal expansion and sea level increase. Despite this fact,  they use language below that suggests the complete opposite.

This has been a trick used since the United Nations first started scaring up  its exaggerated predictions in the late 1980's. Ever year, we hear "It's worse than what we thought"  

Ever year, it turns out not as bad as they predicted and the response is NEVER the truth, "its not as bad as what we predicted" It's always "worse than what we thought" because those words are scarier and this shows the disconnect between the authentic science and the intended message they want to send to people.

On the graph below, I  agree that sea levels are extremely likely to rise at least a foot from 2000 to 2100. Based on the actual data and what we now know about the models doubling the real amount of warming,  it's not likely but still possible that sea levels will increase MORE than  2 feet during that period. The rate of increase is just over an inch/decade now and very slightly accelerating. Extrapolating that increasing rate, which has been a much better way of projecting than using busted models keeps us below 2 feet in 2100. Continuing to use blatantly flawed models that have been wrong because of equations that double the sensitively to CO2 over reality is simulating an atmosphere and oceans that don't exist in the real world. That's all these projections are........... computer simulations using mathematical equations to represent what an often biased modeler thinks should happen. Very smart people that have lost their ability to practice the scientific method because of cognitive bias, who think their math on a computer screen should get more weight than the actual real world observations in the atmosphere/oceans.

Based on what we know now with more certainty(and didn't know 30 years ago), predictions for sea levels to increase a great deal above 2 feet/century will have to incorporate something very unexpected that accelerates the warming more than the now, better understood physics caused from the increase in CO2.

Climate Change: Global Sea Level

Both the low-end and “worst-case” possibilities were revised upward in 2017 following a review by the U.S. Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforce. Based on their new scenarios, global sea level is very likely to rise at least 12 inches (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100 even on a low-emissions pathway. On future pathways with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise could be as high as 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100.

graph of observed and projected sea level rise from 1900-2100

Observed sea level from tide gauges (dark gray) and satellites (light gray) from 1800-2015, with future sea level through 2100 under six possible future scenarios (colored lines). The scenarios differ based on potential future rates of greenhouse gas emissions and differences in the plausible rates of glacier and ice sheet loss. NOAA graph, adapted from Figure 8 in Sweet et al., 2017. 

The higher worst-case scenario—which is extremely unlikely, but can’t be ruled out—is largely due to new observations and modeling on ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland. Since the 2012 report, new research has emerged showing that some of the more extreme estimates of how quickly those ice sheets could melt were more plausible than they previously seemed.

metmike: That last sentence by this source is the opposite of reality and not based on authentic science. It's NOT worse than we thought. Them stating that an 8.2 ft sea level rise is possible by 2100 is science fiction...........but I include this here because this is the junk science that is being fed to everybody. Look at the empirical data and observations and additional understanding. It does NOT support this at all..

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 11:28 a.m.
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So if the seas increased 2 feet over the next 100 years what would happen?

For sure coastal cities would not be under water as Bernie tells us they will be before 2030. Let's use some critical thinking and visualize 2 feet in our heads and imagine adding that to the sea levels along the coast. 24 inches...............not 24 feet. That's the increase in 100 years (2100-2120), not 2030, 10 years.

There  will be a bit  more erosion, beachfront property shrinking just a bit and property losses from high water events along the coasts will increase slightly because people in the US have decided they like living close to the ocean. However, in some low lying countries and especially islands it's not a choice. 2 feet of additional sea level increase is 24 inches higher than preferred and adaptation measures need to be taken...........for that amount of sea level increase, along with potential for more in the 22nd century. 

This is not to pretend it's no problem. Just telling the truth about the real problem. 24 inches at the end of this century, not 24 feet. 

Funny element to this. President Obama, the guy who has been claiming that climate change and sea levels increasing  will be gobbling up property and doing catastrophic damage in the next few decades  along the coasts,  just spent $12,000,000 for a mansion in a location that would be exactly at the highest risk for what he says climate change damage will cause. 

Sorry to bring the politics into it but that's exactly what this is all about because the science we are being sold on is hogwash. Then we look at the actions of those that are selling the junk science to us.............and we know that they know its hogwash too. 

I am actually for some of the hidden objectives in the Climate Accord(the Climate Accord will do nothing to the climate). Helping less fortunate countries/people. Conserving natural resources from rich countries that have an overabundance of goodies and for less REAL pollution (CO2 is an entirely beneficial gas at 50% of the optimal level) and being good stewards to our planet/protecting life.

But tricking us to become part of their plan for global socialism by hijacking environmental science and climate science and rewriting climate history is really  wrong and it especially bothers me that they are using my field of expertise, atmospheric science  to steal peoples intelligence to accomplish the brainwash for their altruistic motives. 

Just tell us the truth please!

Obama house: tour Barack and Michelle's new Martha's Vineyard home


Obama house




Sea levels are rising due to #climate change, potentially threatening U.S. cities: http://OFA.BO/sacMyb We have to #ActOnClimate.


Just so that you don't think that I'm picking on President Obama(who I voted for in 2008) 

         Rising sea levels on track to destroy the homes of 300 million people by 2050


"Rising sea levels are on track to affect about three times more people by 2050 than originally thought. New research suggests that 300 million homes will be affected by coastal flooding in the next 30 years.

    And that number could rise to 630 million by the year 2100 if carbon emissions don't decrease. New estimates mean rising seas will cause more damage, cost more money and impact more communities than ever before."

metmike: If the sea levels continue to accelerate at the current rate, sea levels may be 4-5 inches higher in 2050. You saw the data and can think for yourself now. There is no doubt that this represents water levels that WILL do additional damage and is unwelcome but does it make sense that an extra 4-5 inches will destroy 300 million homes? 

The group that did this study stated this:

"Based on human activities, sea levels could rise between about 2 and 7 feet during the 21st century, or possibly even more."

Their study is based on speculating the damage from 7+ feet of sea level increase that we can be pretty confident will NOT happen during this century. Does the above quote and their speculation sound like authentic science to base our understanding and actions on?

It sure as heck makes for great headlines to get peoples attention and scare them. I can pull up hundreds of other articles  just like it.

But where is another story to tell us what I just did using authentic science and the facts?


This is exactly why people believe the science fiction of apocalyptic projections that amplify realities by an order of magnitude and have been repeated with impunity for 3 decades..........long enough for it to be accepted as a certainty...........if we don't follow a specific plan ASAP to save the planet.

It was ASAP in 1989 and has been ASAP for every year since then. It's not just a crisis anymore but an EMERGENCY now.  The main consequence to our planet from lack of acting so far?

It's been greening up.    

Do know that I've been a practicing environmentalist for 38 years and care greatly about the future of our planet and I value the truth above all else. 

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 11:31 a.m.
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Regards to what we have learned recently about the physics of CO2 warming. Here is the latest:

NEW: Smoking Guns!!  Proof with accurate 2 decade long measurement of the actual amount of radiative forcing caused by CO2 of 1 irrefutable reason for WHY global climate models continue to be too warm. Climate emergency is really about social justice and brainwashing people. Even MORE confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming. Models clearly too warm yet incredibly programmed to get even HOTTER!  Now, even more confirmation why the models are too warm. August 2020

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2020, 9:34 p.m.
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The rest of the MarketForum discussions/articles on Climate:

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2020, 1:43 p.m.
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Additional comments on this topic, as well as explaining what its all about:

                Sea Level Rise            

                            Started by joj - Dec. 9, 2020, 4:29 a.m