Week in Review
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Started by TimNew - Dec. 4, 2020, 11:27 a.m.

Chicago PMI M/MNov-2061.1058.20C
Dallas Fed Mfg M/MNov-2019.8012.00C
PMI Mfg M/MNov-2053.4056.70C+
PMI Svc M/MNov-2056.3058.40C+
ISM Mfg M/MNov-2059.3057.50C
ISM Svc M/MNov-2056.6055.90C
Factory Order M/MOct-201.101.00C
Jobless Claims W/W11/28/2020778K712KC+
Employment Situation M/MNov-20638K245KC
Pending Home Sales M/MOct-20-2.20-1.10C-
Construction Spending M/MOct-200.301.30C+
RedBook W/W11/28/20202.809.20B-

Overall good week,  but the prevailing theme appears to be moderation.

Pending Home Sales showing weakness for the 2nd month in a row, but coming off an overheated streak.  Construction Spending had a nice gain.

Jobless Claims showed a healthy drop to the still far too high level of 712K.

Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed remain strong,  but not as....

PMI and ISM Mfg and Service remain very positive, ISM showed slight moderation while PMI accelerated. (I always give more weight to ISM).

Factory Orders had their 6th straight month of gains.  I don't recall a string like this.  Probably out there somewhere.

RedBook had an outsized gain. A precursor to the coming season? A good holiday retail # would be welcome, but RedBook is exclusively "Brick and Mortar".  I'm expecting on-line to be steller. Traditional?  Not so much.  RedBook indicates I may be wrong. But a week does not a trend make.  Let's see what happens.

The headline is the somewhat disappointing Employment Situation coming in at a realitively anemic 245K.  Concensus was over 500K and the economy requires even higher.  Increase in reported cases?  Election results? Or maybe a blip in the radar.  Let's see what happens next month. Private Sector added 344K so we are still bleeding public sector jobs. Mfg added a healthy 27K, but participation rate fell 2 tics to 61.5.

I'll give the week a cautious C+ with an eye on employment.  Suck factor fixed at 6.5...

By wglassfo - Dec. 4, 2020, 12:13 p.m.
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I read the panama canal is backed up with ships waiting 5 days or more for passage through the canal. Others have opted to take the long way around

One of the larger number of ships, waiting  for passage, is container carriers

I wonder if container ships means increased expectations of buying things that arrive in a container

Might give a boost to your numbers in the weeks ahead

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2020, 1:42 p.m.
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Vaccine is right around the corner but some rough waters to traverse first!

Week in Review compilation Mar-December 2020

 Tim New analyzes various metrics of our economy and grades them for us using his wisdom.


By TimNew - Dec. 4, 2020, 2:34 p.m.
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Thanks MM.  You flatter me...   As the saying goes,  sometmimes, I amaze myself with my mental acuity, and then I try to get out of the car with my sealbelt on...  

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2020, 2:39 p.m.
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Just as long as the car isn't still running and in drive (-:

By metmike - Dec. 4, 2020, 2:41 p.m.
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You deserve more than that BTW but that's all I have!