Two Weeks in Review
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Started by TimNew - Nov. 20, 2020, 7 a.m.

Nothing of consequence today, so here we go.

NFIB Small Business Optimism   M/MOct-20104.00104.00C
Housing Market Index M/MNov-2085.0090.00B-
Housing Starts M/MOct-201.415M1.530MB-
Housing Permits M/MOct-201.553M1.545MC
Existing Home Sales M/MOct-206.540M6.850MC+
Empire State Mfg M/MNov-2010.506.30C
Philly Fed Mfg M/MNov-2032.3026.30C
Kansas City Fed MfgNov-2013.0011.00C
Industrial Production M/MOct-20-0.601.10C+
Quarterly Services Q/QQ3-9.107.80B
JOLTS (Job Openings)M/MSep-206.352M6.436MC+
RedBook W/W 111/10/20203.201.10C
RedBook W/W 211/17/20201.101.70C+
Retail Sales M/MOct-201.900.30C
E-Commerce Retail Q/QQ331.80-1.00C-
Leading IndicatorsOct-200.700.70C
Jobless Claims W/W 111/12/2020751K709KC+
Jobless Claims W/W 211/19/2020709K742.00C-

Jobless Claims showed promise last week but had  significant gain this week. Defintely something to watch. I still believe this will be the first sign of trouble. Let's see what happens next week.

For the first time since I've been watching, E-Commerce Retail came in negative. Not a big deal IMO.  The surge in Q2 due to shut downs lead to an outsized double digit gain.  This is most likely a reversion to the mean.

Retail moderated a bit, but remains positive.

Q3 Quarterly services showed solid gains.  But again, after a significant contraction in Q2. This is a measure of IT expenditures and I've always viewed it as an excellent leading indicator. IT is one of the first areas cut during slowdown and one of the 1st to show expansion when things start picking up.

Small Business Optimism remains extremely positive and Leading Indicators stayed nicely positive.

MFG had a good showing with Industrial Production up a strong 1.1%. Capactity Utilization went from 71.5 to 72.8. Empire State, Philly Fed and Kansas City all moderated a bit but remain in strongly positive territory.  

Housing Remains strong with the Housing Market Index indicating more to come. 

I'll go with a cautious C this week, based on Jobless Claims. I'll leave the suck factor at 6.5 for the same reason.

I might miss next week.  We may be going on the road and I may not have time to compile this. I will if I can.


By cutworm - Nov. 20, 2020, 7:18 a.m.
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Thanks Tim

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2020, 9:43 p.m.
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Thanks Very much Tim!

Where might you be going next week?

By TimNew - Nov. 23, 2020, 5:47 a.m.
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RVing up north for my mothers Bday and Tday,  

By cutworm - Nov. 23, 2020, 7:01 a.m.
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Tim if you are going up I75 the bridge in Cincinnati is closed big traffic jams all the time. JSYK