Week in Review
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Started by TimNew - Oct. 17, 2020, 6:04 a.m.

PMI Composite M/MSep-2054.6054.30C
ISM Services M/MSep-2056.9057.80C+
Philly Fed MFG M/MOct-2015.0032.30B-
Empire State Mfg M/MOct-2017.0010.00C
Industrial Production M/MSep-200.40-0.60C-
JOLTS (Job Openings) M/MAug-206.618M6.493MC-
Jobless Claims W/W 110/8/2020837.00840.00C
Jobless Claims W/W 210/15/2020840.00898.00C-
NFIB Small Business OptimismOct-20100.20104.00C+
Redbook W/W 110/6/20202.202.10C
Redbook W/W 210/13/29292.101.20C
Retail Sales M/MSep-200.601.90B-

A little lite data wise, even with 2 weeks,  but enough to go on.

Some disappointments this week.

Jobless Claims notched up to nearly 900k.  Certainly a step in the wrong direction.  I'd like to temper this with the fact that continuing claims have dropped from about 12 million in September to 10 million in Oct, a step in the right direction.

Industrial Production was a big disappointment going negative but it's had some outsized growth for the last few months.  Curiously, Capacity Utilization was up a tic.  Lets see what happens next month.

Empire State moderated a bit but remains strongly positive while Philly is nearly off the charts.

ISM Services had a stratospheric reading at 57.8.  Remember ISM is one of the best forecasting metrics and services comprise about 60% of the economy.

Retail had a very strong showing this month with a solid 1.9% gain on the eve of the holiday season.

I'll go with a solid C+ this week.  Suck factor is stubbornly holding at 7 with the UI Claims.

In closing, speaking of Stratospheric, Atl Fed forecast of Q3 GDP is up to 35.2, reshaping the historic GDP graph.  The first estimate will be released Oct 29th. 



By metmike - Oct. 17, 2020, 9:55 a.m.
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Thanks much Tim!

I'm concerned that with the flu season coming up and COVID numbers going higher for the last 2 months with likely more increases ahead, this could pose a big problem.

By TimNew - Oct. 17, 2020, 11:15 a.m.
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Definitely a concern and something to watch.  An increase in cases seems just about inevitable.  But my gut feel is that people have become far more "risk tolerant"  where covid is concerned.  It's not the death sentence we once feared and treatment has made gains in leaps and bounds. 

But no one has a crystal ball.  Not even me  :-)

By metmike - Oct. 17, 2020, 12:08 p.m.
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I agree Tim,

Complete lockdowns like we had in April seem like a bad idea under most circumstances.

The exception would be if the healthcare system was completely overwhelmed with no hospital beds available and very sick people with no place to go.