KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 5, 2020
9:00 AM ET. IMF Fiscal Monitor analytical chapter released
9:45 AM ET. September US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 55.0)
10:00 AM ET. September Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 52.55)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. September ISM Report on Business Services PMI
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 62.4)
Prices Idx (previous 64.2)
Employment Idx (previous 47.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 56.8)
11:00 AM ET. September Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.9)
11:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting
N/A G24 Committee of the Whole meeting
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -63.56B)
Exports (USD) (previous 168.11B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +8.1%)
Imports (USD) (previous 231.67B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +10.9%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.2%)
10:00 AM ET. October IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 45.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 41.5)
10:00 AM ET. August Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 776.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +6.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 320.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3579.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.5%)
9:00 AM ET. G24 Deputies Meeting
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:00 AM ET. September Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 492.426M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.98M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 228.182M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.683M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 172.758M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.184M)
Refinery Usage (previous 75.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.447M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.992M)
3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +12.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were higher overnight as investors tracked President Trump’s response treatment for COVID-19 after he was hospitalized by the disease on Friday, and weighed prospects for another round of stimulus from Washington. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,191.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. First resistance last-Friday's high crossing at 11,604.75. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 3193.20 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the September 16th high crossing at 3412.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 16th high crossing at 3412.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3049.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the September-October trading range. The low-range he stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 10th low crossing at 175-00 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 173-16. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-09. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 178-17. First support is the September 10th low crossing at 175.00. Second support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16.
December T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the August-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 138.185. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range thereby opening the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at 140.110. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at $36.58 would renew the decline off August's high. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.13. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 18th high crossing at $118.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $118.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.07. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63.
November unleaded gas was sharply higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $124.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $109.58 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $106.60. First resistance is the September 18th high crossing at $121.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. First support is September's low crossing at $106.60. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $105.01.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the September 24th high crossing at 2.928. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.681 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends last-week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.634. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.681. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.348. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 2.244.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to resumed the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.28.
The December Euro was higher in overnight trading and remains poised to resume the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.26. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is September's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3034 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2502 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3034. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0937 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0937. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0982. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.51. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 74.53. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight and remains poised to resume the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0947 would confirm that a double top with July's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0954 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0947. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1953.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1921.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1953.60. First support is September's low crossing at $1851.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.300 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.300. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.244. First support is September's low crossing at $21.810. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953.
December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends last- week's decline, August's low crossing at 2.7960 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.0465 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2.8345. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $3.60 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.70 1/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $3.60 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at $5.99 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.99 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.39 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.24 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.94. Second support is the the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.86 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-September high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the March 27th high crossing at $5.69 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4. First resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $5.47 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $5.54 3/4. First support is the September 15th low crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second support is the August 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were mostly steady overnight as they consolidate some of last-week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $9.85 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is September's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $9.85 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-September-rally crossing at $9.64 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $333.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $354.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $333.70. Second support is the September 16th low crossing at $317.90.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.39. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.
Thanks tallpine!
Forecast hurricane in the Gulf spiking energies/ng higher!
Possibly affecting cotton trading(doesn't look like much if any damage)
Coffee still under pressure from massive rains coming.
Grains have good harvest weather but in Brazil, Mato Grosso may still miss the drought denting rains coming.