Week in Review
4 responses | 1 like
Started by TimNew - Sept. 19, 2020, 8:17 a.m.

NFIB Small Business Optimism   M/MAug-2098.80100.20C+
RedBook W/W 19/5/20204.60-0.10C-
RedBook W/W 29/12/2020-0.10-1.20C-
Retail Sales M/MAug-201.200.60C
Consumer Sentiment M/MSep-2074.1078.90C+
Housing Market Index M/MSep-2078.0083.00C+
Housing Starts M/MAug-201.496M1.416MC-
Housing Permits M/MAug-201.495M1.470MC-
JOLTS (Job Openings)M/MJul-205.889M6.618MB-
Jobless Claims W/W 19/5/2020881K884KC
Jobless Claims W/W 29/12/2020884K860KC+
Quarterly Services Q2Q2-7.30-9.10D
Industrial Production M/MAug-203.000.40C
MFG Output M/MAug-203.401.00C
Capacity Utilization M/MAug-2070.6071.40C+
Empire State MFGM/MSep-203.7017.00B+
Philly Fed MFGM/MSep-2017.2015.00C
Business Inventory M/MJul-20-1.100.10C
Leading Indicators M/MAug-201.401.20C+

Actually Two weeks...

Not a bad week.  Appears some metrics are stabilizing.

Quarterly Services were dismal in Q2, but as stated, Q2 is solidly in the rearview mirror.

Redbook retreated back to negative territory, and Retail, while still positive, showed less growth than we've been seeing.

Housing Starts and Permits retreated as well, but the Housing Market Index, something I consider to be a strong leading indicator, was very positive.  Expect better housing numbers in the short term.

Jobless Claims fell to a little over twice the maximum acceptable level.  An improvement.  Long term claims are showing a significant drop.

Businesses Inventories show a slight build.

Job Openings are reaching pre-pandemic levels. but still shadowed by the vast number of unemployed.  

Industrial Production was also positive, but much less so than we've been seeing.  Of note is the uptick in Utilization.

Philly Fed still showing strength and Empire State showed a vast improvement.

I like the strength in Leading Indicators.

Consumers and Small Business are cheering up. We had the highest Consumer Sentiment since March.

Nothing earth shattering in either direction, so while overall nicely positive,  I'll go with an overly conservative C.  Steady as she goes.  Suck factor remains at 7 as long as Jobless Claims remain at this level.

By cutworm - Sept. 19, 2020, 9:44 a.m.
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Tim What do you think about the JOLTS number and new jobless claims. I confess I do not know anything about this, but is it abnormal to have so high of a Jolts number and a rising Jobless number???

By TimNew - Sept. 19, 2020, 10:27 a.m.
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The Jolts numbers are in a typical range.  But if you drill down into the numbers, the majority of the openings are for skilled labor. The Jobless claims are largely lower echelon workers.

Edit Note:.  We don't have rising jobless numbers...

By wglassfo - Sept. 19, 2020, 11 a.m.
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I consider it a bit unfair as the larger big box retailer are allowed to be open while small business is forced to remain closed. Perhaps the shift in consumer spending was going to happen any way, and this just speeded up the process

I am referring to Target, Walmart etc

Also Amazon has changed consumer spending, but perhaps was also going to happen

Until we get unemployment down the consumer spending might plateau some time soon, which will affect inventory of some products

We need some large scale infastructure spending, roads, new factories being built etc to get construction mfg production of new equip going which would help low skill workers, so some extent

But some improvement is better than none

It bothers me a bit that financial engineering of capital on Wall St has replaced capital spending on  new production factories at home. Long term we will still be printing money and buying chinese products

How long can we expect the world to accept our I.O.U's for products imported into our country

I like your analysis

Excellent detail

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2020, 12:39 p.m.
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Thanks very much Tim!