What is the rate of global warming?
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Started by metmike - June 22, 2018, 12:02 a.m.

Carl's question from earlier this week.


No need for this atmospheric scientist to do research to comprehensively respond.......have aleady spent thousands of hours doing research on it over the past 2 decades.


And unlike that wise sage, who had the presidency stolen from him in 2000 and decided to instead, find a new career, making $500,000,000 selling climate catastrophe's, who insisted "the science is settled"  and "debate is over" in 2007, I am still learning.

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By mcfarm - June 22, 2018, 9:36 a.m.
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don't know what the rate is. don't know if I really care as I know its temporary and am far more fearful of global cooling..maybe 1/2 of a degree in a decade?

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 11:12 a.m.
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Your guess is a bit high mcfarm but assessment about global cooling being much more harmful is on the money.


If the planet would go back to the conditions of 150 years ago............slightly cooler and much less CO2, over 1 billion people would starve to death within a few years. Food prices would triple.

Why is that?

The global warming and atmospheric fertilizer has(CO2) has, by itself increased world food production by roughly 25%(depending on the crop/plant).

I'll also tell you what the bad things are about global warming later too........there are 2 sides. 

1 side gets greatly exaggerated and sensationalized. The other side is hidden and those that tell it get attacked and called "deniers".

By metmike - June 23, 2018, 7:57 p.m.
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Here are the latest average global temperatures(anomolies) from the most accurate measure.......satellites that measure every inch of the atmosphere.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2018-0-18-deg-c/

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2018_v6.jpg

So we are +0.18 deg. C above the 30 year average. What does that mean?

For one thing, satellites were only in space since the 1970's so they could not measure temperatures before then. We had slight global cooling from the 1940's to 1970's and from the 1910's to early 1940's had global warming. 

The graph below of surface temperatures represents this but note that the Y axis is chosen so that the temperature at the start is at the bottom and temperature at the end is at the top........making the temperature curve/trend line very steep.

How much did the actual temperature increase during the century+  as seen below with ground thermometers measuring?     Around 1 degree C. This is around +1.6 deg. F.

Image result for global temperature graph 100 years



The graph below of temperatures for the last 1,000+ years provides a better view of the big picture. We are about up to the warmth of the Medieval Warm Period:


Let's go back even farther, 10,000 years to get an even wider/better perspective. More than 2,000 years ago, the Roman Warm Period was even warmer and 3,500 years ago the Minoan Period was even warmer yet:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/11/validity-of-a-reconstruction-of-regional-and-global-temperature-for-the-past-11300-years/

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/clip_image0024.jpg

Was the  planet getting ready to enter the next Ice Age, with the "Little Ice Age" in blue on the far right part of the map being a precursor.......but suddenly, greenhouse gas warming from rapidly increasing CO2 as the result of humans burning fossil fuels interrupted it?

By metmike - June 23, 2018, 8:37 p.m.
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Why should we believe these temperature graphs  that show it was this warm 1,000 years ago and even warmer over 2,000 and 3,500 years ago and not sources that tell us that current warming is the warmest in 100,000 years?

Because almost all the authentic science proves it:

Over 100 scientific studies of the Medieval Warm Period, most of which show the planet was this warm or warmer 1,000 years ago. Blue is studies that showed it cooler in those locations that were studied. Green showed similar temperatures with today. The red bar shows the number of studies that found the MWP warmer than the Current Warm Period.

Note: there has been some slight additional warming to the CWP since many of the studies were done, which would decrease the red and increase the green and blue a bit but still reds are greater by a wide margin.



Use these links for that information:

Medieval Warm Period Project:

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php

Qualitative temperature differentials above:

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/qualitative.php

List of scientists whose work they sited:

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/scientists.php

List of Research Institutions Associated with the work:

http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/institutions.php

By metmike - June 23, 2018, 9:06 p.m.
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So how did they come up with the data to support the position that this warming is "unprecedented" and the graph below......known as "The Hockey Stick Graph"??


The answer tomorrow!

                                           

By metmike - June 24, 2018, 10:56 p.m.
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The main evidence, initially(used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/UN) for there never being a Medieval Warm Period(that was similar to the current warm period), that over 100 scientific studies and history recorded, came from one study, based on tree ring data,  done by Penn State University's climate scientist Michael Mann.

https://principia-scientific.org/what-michael-manns-hockey-stick-graph-gave-to-un-climate-fraud/


Since that time, additional studies have found this same conclusion or maybe I should say that this same conclusion was assumed and data was found to support it. 

Tremendous controversy over this that includes scientists much smarter than me who think differently than me. I will just let the data speak for itself.........starting with the links earlier on the studies involving the Medieval Warm Period.

This can start a series of posts that delve more into it for you.

Next up, the effect of climate change/global warming on violent tornadoes.