Week in Review
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Started by TimNew - Aug. 29, 2020, 8:32 a.m.

After a few weeks hiatus,  I am back with the Week in Review.  Hope you haven't missed me too much :-)

Somwhat mixed week, but overall, pretty positive.

Q2 is pretty much in the review mirror but Corp Profits were revised way down.  I expect a significant rebound for Q3. GDP was revised up a tic or two but still remains  the worst on record by a wide margin.

Consumer Confidence took a real hit, oddly opposed to Sentiment which rose a little. State Street Investors are stable in a good range. Not high,  but well above the lows.

Jobless Claims had dropped below a million, then climbed back over and last week just slightly above.  Well below the peak,  but almost three times what I consider acceptable, between 3-400K/wk. For the last few years, pre-pandemic, we were generally well below 300k.

RedBook finally crept into positive territory, tho barely. 

Chicago, Richmond and Kansas City Fed show positive from modest to extrordinary.

Durable Goods remain impressive with a double digit gain in July.

Personal Income showed modest gain while Spending seems to contradict Confidence.

Housing is on Fire.  Not reported but last week existing homes showed a multi-decade high.  I don't think the pandemic hit housing very hard which is very telling as far as which income groups were hit hardest.

I'll go with a C+ on the week. Suck Factor remains 7.5 with Jobless Claims remaining above 1 million/Wk.  I expect that metric to improve significantly in the coming month or two.


By cutworm - Aug. 29, 2020, 12:15 p.m.
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Thanks Tim

By metmike - Aug. 29, 2020, 2:35 p.m.
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Thanks very much Tim!

Outside of the Q2 stuff that, as you mentioned are telling us what happened at our worst earlier this year, things look promising.

By TimNew - Aug. 29, 2020, 9 p.m.
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We're on the right track.  Sentiment is concerning but understandable with the current media barrage .If only yje could see your graphs  :-)