Long time no see (-:
For grains: Tons of rain in the southern half of the Midwest. Drying out northern 1/2. +3% in crop ratings on Monday keeping us lower this week. Stratospheric new crop demand(from China) in July.
NG: Much cooler the next 10 days than what I thought a week ago.......then we warm up.
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Latest COVID-19 numbers. ...........going way up.....deaths(lagging indicator) are also starting to climb higher.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55092/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Seasonably COOL temps...... a foreign word for describing temps this Summer.............but HOT West.
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
We just passed the hottest time of year climatologically.
Look at the huge pocket of blues in the Cornbelt...............just what the doctor ordered for this time of year with regards to temperatures and early corn filling. Over the past week, this cool departure for this period has continued to grow and been very unexpected by me, just a week ago.
Red departures above average means pretty impressive heat in the West!!!.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Coooool Canadian high pressure keeps it mostly dry(not entirely) in the North.
Upper level low and surface reflecting in the south will bring rains, some heavy.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
VERY Wet weather S.Midwest to Ohio River Valley, possibly the Eastern Cornbelt coming up
Dry-ish in the north.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec
Learn About Daily Precipitation
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).
July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.
July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.
July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.
July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.
July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Sunday: The jet stream has been shifting progressively farther south the last few days, late week 2 on this model. Pushing the dome farther south. Potential for active, northwest type flow into the Midwest. However, patterns like this can sometimes become less productive rain producers later in the Summer as soil moisture dries up.
Monday: Dome weakening and shifting southwest. Active northwest flow into the Midwest to Northeast.
Tuesday: Same as changes for the last week..........dome weakening and shifting farther southwest on majority with northwest flow into the Midwest/Northeast. Northwest flow rains tend to dry up as the Summer progresses! Still a minority that like the heat ridge in the South to Southeast.
Wednesday: The average has the dome backed up and northwest flow into the G.Lakes/Northeast but a significant minority have the heat ridge farther east or northeast.
Saturday: New feature, since Thursday had been the appearance of a Bermuda High in the far southeast. This has the "potential" of turning up the heat in the east, which would maximize CDD's since there is such a high population there using AC.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 14, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Sunday: Individual solutions are very different in the Midwest. Some have active northwest flow..........some have the heat ridge building in. Regardless, the dome is not dead and will most likely be centered around the S.Plains again.
Monday: Individual solutions vary on placement of the weakening dome/heat ridge.
Tuesday: Huge disparity on where the dome will be. This model is much more bullish with it vs the Canadian model........half the members have it farther east.
Wednesday: Disparity on the location of the dome again. How far east/west. Northwest flow G.Lakes/Northeast?
Saturday: Still some DRY northwest flow into the Midwest on the majority. With NAO increasing back to 0, will this allow more ridging and heat from the west into the N.Plains? Individual maps below DON'T show that. They still like nw flow in 2 weeks.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Sunday: Positive anomalies almost everywhere. The greatest anomaly in the US is over the NorthCentral part. Interesting weak negative anomaly far Northeast at the end of week 1............associated with the -NAO and potentially bringing in some cooler air to that area temporarily.
Monday: Mainly positive anomalies across the country.
Tuesday: This model has a subtle shift east of the positive anomalies compared to yesterday), associated with the average representing half the members that prefer the heat ridge moving east. Strong positive in NorthCentral Canada associated with the -AO/-NAO could end up having an affect if the northern stream is allowed to influence the northern tier.
Wednesday: Large area of slightly positive anomalies vs greater magnitude of the anomalies earlier this month, so less heat than those much earlier in the month models.
Saturday: Generally positive height anomalies and above normal temps across much of the country. The big hemispheric positive anomaly center is over Siberia with ridging to N.Canada and no affects on our weather.
2 weeks out below
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Sunday, July 19, 2020: -NAO continues. Potential for more cooling than model solutions show in the Upper Midwest to East. PNA has a huge spread and uncertainty late week 2. Higher potential for some big changes to the model solutions late in week 2 because of this(and less reliability in individual solutions). Regardless, none of this strongly suggests the pattern will not continue to feature a large area of hot weather, especially in the S.half of the US.
Monday: Still negative NAO has me leaning a bit cooler than models in the northern half of the country. AO and PNA near 0.
Tuesday: Still negative NAO and bit negative AO, along with PNA a tad positive give the northern stream a chance to push cooler air south........just depends on how massive,, the heat ridge to the south is.
Wednesday: -NAO, -AO and a bit postive PNA all favor a bit more cooling than what models predict. For the past 2 weeks, these indices nailed the cooler teleconnection pattern that led to all models getting cooler and cooler(less hot) thru much of the last 2 weeks.
Saturday: Still the slightly -AO but the weeks long -NAO, that picked up on a dynatic that the models didn't dial in at times and caused many model updates to be cooler than previous ones up until last week.......could be increasing to 0 and become less of a potential cooling factor. +PNA with a wide spread.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |