Thanks Larry!

I guess we won't break the 100 post mark for the first time on a thread.

The previous thread, breaks the old record by at least 30 posts!

0z GFSE around 4 less CDD's(cooler) is not what the ng bulls wanted to see. 

We made new lows for the session of 1.757 after that.

After the big OVER reaction on Thursday, one would expect some retracement,  in the absence of the market being fed any really bullish NEW news.

Ideally, we need to stay above the 1.750 area and Friday's highs to avoid having Thursday looking like a 1 day wonder.

But we can go lower than that and not spoil the bulls party.

To me, the lowish injection(based on my expectations) confirms that, although we are seeing industrial and export demand destruction, its not affecting residential cooling demand........and it shouldn't really. 

With more people at home, one can make the case of it possibly increasing residential demand a bit.  

I noted on Thursday, that a Bermuda High was trying to build into the Southeast and increase the heat in that region, to possibly the East Coast, which was responsible for much of the upward trajectory in the CDD's in week 2.

In tandem with that, the NWS updated their excessive heat risk Thursday afternoon, adding a slight risk to the far Southeast for the entire week 2 period.

Will this feature strengthen more?

I feel like, if it does,  it will add some bullishness to the market.

Super Califragilistic Saturday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56747/

12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri in CDDs:

 GEFS -16

EPS -7

Also, late week 2, alone, is cooler in both vs Fri at 12Z

So, if NG were to open higher, it wouldn't be due to wx (CDD) changes, even if one is looking at only late week 2.

I maintain my opinion that NG moved up sharply mid-late last week mainly on non-wx forecast factors.

I agree Larry, the cumulative CDD's are definitely lower vs Friday.

I still think that the trajectory/slope  of the week 2 warming(or lack of it) which will be determined by the PATTERN is very important too.

An absolute CDD # change can be dialed in instantly or even not make that much difference if the reason for it is transitory.

The market can think "So what if a few days are cooler if the pattern ends up morphing warmer."

And there are a ton of other factors at play that, in the absence of extreme heat or coolness, can be more dominant(I think supplies are tumbling lower)

Mike,

 I'm not going to debate you anymore about whether or not wx could have been a significant factor mid to late last week. We disagree and that's that. We're not convincing each other. So, it is a waste of our time to keep debating it over and over. Time is extra precious for me these days. So, if you don't mind, please let's let this go.

 Meanwhile, NG opened modestly lower and has headed further down. I'm guessing this is partially cooler wx related but who knows?

"Mike,

 I'm not going to debate you anymore about whether or not wx could have been a significant factor mid to late last week. We disagree and that's that. We're not convincing each other. So, it is a waste of our time to keep debating it over and over. Time is extra precious for me these days."

Best news I've heard today Larry!

Your first post: "I maintain my opinion that NG moved up sharply mid-late last week mainly on non-wx forecast factors."

................Had me worried that you wanted to continue this debate, which I ignored in my post. My post only relates to what I think natural gas is being affected by right now and the rest of the week, which is 100% of what it was about.

So here we are with ng modestly down, likely on the lower CDD's vs Friday.

However, the real support is around the 1.750 area and it may be tough to break thru that because the forecast is still VERY warm............just not as warm.

The last 2 EIA's, especially last Thursday's were bullish(in my opinion) and can super impose a bullish spin on the market..........if we can pick up an increase in CDD's with a sustainable pattern in August vs losing CDD's like we did over the weekend.

So weather is clearly quite bearish for ng early(to me), 30 minutes out of the starting blocks. 

added: I have no idea what the models will show overnight, but would like to see them add alot of heat and use that as a buying opportunity.

So far, no added heat to the forecast so the cooler models vs Friday have us around 10 ticks off the lows.

-.033 vs the Friday close at 1.775

-.

NG August, the front month, expires on Wednesday.

Trading close to expiration can feature some wild, unexpected gyrations.  Not always but even more than what we would expect with the same conditions without an approaching expiration. 

With August expiration coming up and weather not currently powerful,  as well as several others factors(exports/COVID/exports/low price/technicals) ng is vulnerable to go in any direction the market participants decide to pile on here or just tread water like it has been much of the time since the open last night.

Overall, would clearly rate the weather as LESS bullish than last week.

Not bearish with regards to cool weather compared to average but almost neutral now in an absolute sense though relative to last week LESS bullish because there are less cumulative CDD's.

I guess saying LESS bullish is the same as saying BEARISH. However, LESS bullish would be like having a forecast that is 7 on the bullish natural gas weather forecast scale and drops to 6.

6 is still bullish rated in the absolute sense but not AS bullish as it was.

Like always, ng will dial stuff in with tough to time surges up and down based on a massive imbalance of orders and big traders piling on all at once.

What do you think Larry/Mark/others?

COT still net short. Rig count -3 @68. Weather has essentially been played out for the summer. Rollovers have been done. Waiting for the new exports report this friday. I pretty much agree that the first half of this week is in the wind.

With all of the above, I would anticipate that the storage report on thursday will be bullish. And probably give us another $1000 day. Momentarily.

Good thoughts......thanks Mark.

I agree on the EIA report. 

It will be followed closer than usual because there are so many unusual/unprecedented forces here which are hard to get a handle on. 

There are people in the business that KNOW exactly how the current, record low rig count will affect the market supply for the rest of the year.

One of the first things that I remember hearing and connecting strongly with when trading commodities was "Those that know, don't say and those that say.............don't know!

In the 1990's, trading off the weather as a meteorologist was like taking candy from a baby for a meteorologist with a satellite dish on their roof piped into the best weather information and doing exclusive weather trading, not just weather but the markets REACTION TO THE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FORECAST compared to what it was expecting previously(now, I feel like the baby sometimes).

We could be in a sensitive weather market, where the market was shooting higher or lower from the latest weather forecast and I would see market gurus telling and selling their advice, sometimes for big bucks..............and I would have to laugh.

I was making a killing by being one step ahead of the market, using the most important thing to the market during those unique time frames and I could not predict prices and things they claimed to know and claimed to be the most important. 

Yeah, they were way smarter than me about alot of stuff but like with many, including climate scientists, they were looking at the wrong stuff and giving that too much weight because of cognitive bias.

The best traders are not always the smartest from the standpoint of having the most information........though that is extremely beneficial. It's the ones that know what information is the most important and that means knowing when they are/were wrong and adjusting quickly.

We just took out the major support and are well below the Friday highs, down almost $900/contract on the day.........going from modestly lower to sharply lower as trading pile it on in one direction(selling) with very few aggressive buyers when the weather is LESS bullish.

Although it has taken a circuitous route, I’m not at all surprised it is now down sharply as I’ve been saying the wx hasn’t been bullish at all. Considering how much cooler it is vs 10 days ago and how high storage is, I’m calling the wx “bearish”, rather than just “less bullish” in the current environment. The hottest is the next couple of days and then not as hot again in the 2 week forecast for the US as a whole. Maxar has 7/31-8/6 all near the 30 year normal and cooler than the 10 year normal! That’s flat out bearish from my standpoint. As of just 10 days ago, early August had been looking to be several degrees warmer than the10 year normal or ~3 CDD/day warmer. In summer, that’s a big cooler change.

I can agree 100% with calling the weather bearish Larry.

Just explaining my recent preference for calling it less bullish..............though its now ratcheted  down to around neutral overall vs average.

To add to my post above, I’ll reiterate my feeling that NG had not been trading daily projected CDD changes as a primary consideration in recent days. Perhaps today is different though. Who knows as it has been trading on a myriad of factors.

Thanks much Larry!

Your contributions here are worth so much that I often find it hard to make myself respond the way that I did last week and risk alienating you.

We weathered that little storm and are on the same page now.

It really doesn't matter who might have been right and who might have been wrong anymore.

In the weather forecasting biz, being wrong is part of it. Same thing in trading. What you DO want to have, more than anything else is the ability to look ahead (at the future).

Learning from the past is one thing(good) but dwelling on the past can be counterproductive.

Along with that theme, you want as many tools and opinions available that are looking forward. Nobody knows everything and everybody knows something.

And all of us are wrong sometimes.

Some of the most accomplished people got that way from building on the knowledge of others......and humbly acknowledging when they had it wrong.

Closing Headlines from Natural Gas Intelligence.

Storm, Cooler Forecasts Chill August Natural Gas Futures

August natural gas futures lost momentum on Monday, as storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) ushered in milder temperatures through parts of the central United States and national forecasts shifted cooler. The August Nymex contract fell 7.4 cents day/day and settled at $1.734/MMBtu. September declined 8.1 cents to $1.786. NGI’s Spot Gas National… 

   July 27, 2020

Like late last week, I see no way NG's strong day today was due to a bullish CDD change. Something else is supporting it. CDDs on recent EPS and GEFs runs remain barely above 30 year normals and, if anything , are slightly cooler than prior runs and that includes late week 2.

Thanks Larry!

For a guy that insists they don’t want to debate last week anymore......you sure like to bring it up a lot(-:

I totally agree that other factors, which I gave earlier in this thread had much more to do with today’s strength and weather had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Mike,

 You're welcome. I'm bringing up late last week again because today reminds me of it. I'm tieing today together with it to point out that something (or things)(non CDD related imo) has been supporting NG since then.

"I'm bringing up late last week again because today reminds me of it. I'm tieing today together with it to point out that something (or things)(non CDD related imo) has been supporting NG since then."

But the weather got cooler today and that was NOT the case last Thursday, as I showed conclusively with numerous charts/graphs and weather maps. 

Last Thursday the forecast got hotter. This is indisputable. Go back to that thread if you want.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55738/

Today, it got cooler and I agree that ng was definately not trading weather today and sometimes it does not trade weather. 

Yesterday, yes but not today. 

I put last week to rest............last week but if you want to keep bringing it up, then just  go back to the post from  last week.  My points were made as clear as I can make points using Thursday's data/weather/market reaction. 

Mike,

 Maxar hasn’t had a warmer daily forecast since way back on 7/9!

Natural Gas Intelligence:

August Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back Despite Mixed Views on Weather, Export Demand

August natural gas futures rebounded Tuesday amid news of continued robust exports to Mexico and a varied weather outlook that anticipates cooler near-term conditions but potential for heat to intensify in coming weeks. Analysts cautioned trading would be choppy ahead of the September contract becoming the front month on Thursday. The August Nymex contract rose… 

   July 28, 2020

COT as of monday, is still net short. Although not quite as much as it was last week. Most of the small difference is in the futures specs. That would be us. 

Still getting some flak from the virus fallout, since some businesses that use NG, are being held back from reopening. Weather, although there is some heat left in week 2, not enough to rate a major bullish trend. Exports- still waiting for the new report friday. The only thing I am looking to see is the supply report tomorrow. And some may already be dialing that in because of the lower rig count. And anticipating an even lower rig count on friday.

JMHO

July 29 update:

Actually no changes in the view. August natural gas expires today and that was a big factor with yesterdays move higher that was completely unrelated to the weather as Larry noted first.      

          By metmike - July 27, 2020, 10:44 a.m.            

            With August expiration coming up and weather not currently powerful,  as well as several others factors(exports/COVID/exports/low price/technicals) ng is vulnerable to go in any direction the market participants decide to pile on here or just tread water like it has been much of the time since the open last night.

Thanks Mark!

The EIA report out tomorrow will be very interesting.

Last Thursdays number resulted in an immediate spike higher, that held and helped solidify a bottoming formation that was in progress technically.

I was expecting a bullish number last week and it was more bullish than what I was guessing but if tomorrows number is bullish again, then it suggests more of a bullish trend.

EIA days, historically cause me to lose the most money because the market is so unpredictable.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 24, 2020   |  Released: July 30, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 6, 2020 

                                                  +26 BCF   Neutral                                                                                                                                                                            
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN  Historical ComparisonsStocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf) Year ago
(07/24/19)5-year average
(2015-19) Region07/24/2007/17/20net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% changeEast706  693  13  13   591  19.5  626  12.8  Midwest815  799  16  16   669  21.8  687  18.6  Mountain196  190  6  6   155  26.5  176  11.4  Pacific313  311  2  2   270  15.9  295  6.1  South Central1,211  1,221  -10  -10   930  30.2  1,028  17.8     Salt339  349  -10  -10   227  49.3  274  23.7     Nonsalt872  872  0  0   703  24.0  754  15.6  Total3,241  3,215  26  26   2,615  23.9  2,812  15.3  
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,241 Bcf as of Friday, July 24, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 26 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 626 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 429 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,812 Bcf. At 3,241 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Latest Release

   Jul 30, 2020          Actual26B         Forecast26B           Previous26B

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.

While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

I would be interested in hearing WxFollower/Larry's  and other takes.

Mike,

 My take fwiw on today's big price drop is that it is mainly about a buildup of day after day of cooler (lowered CDDs) 2 week model runs (both GEFS and EPS). Maxar has lost 32 HDD just since the 2 week forecast of 7/20 and 48 CDD just since the 7/10 forecast! And yet, before today's big drop, Sep NG closed yesterday way up at 1.930 as compared to way down at 1.765 on 7/17, when there had been 29 more CDDs in the forecast. So, there had been a major disconnect when just looking at CDD comparisons. That's why I've had the opinion that something(s) other than wx must have been supporting NG and that wx had taken a back seat. Today's big drop still only took Sep NG down to 1.829, which is still 6.4 cents higher than the close of 7/17, when there had been 32 more CDDs.

 The Sep NG close on 7/9 was at 1.821, when there had been 48 more CDDs. So, today's close of 1.829 is still barely higher than when there were 48 more CDDs.

 The EIA of +26 was just about as neutral as can be. The DJ survey had +25. So, imo, today's drop was all about partially catching up to the major reductions in CDDs in recent weeks. Also, for whatever reason, even though each EIA is theoretically dialed in via each day's wx forecast changes, NG sometimes has the peculiar thing of being supported by an anticipated bullish/small injection to some extent until the actual number is released and vice vers for anticipated very large/bearish EIAs.

 Today also had its own CDD reduction of 3, which probably contributed to today's price drop in addition to lower crude and Dow.

Thanks Larry, great thoughts as usual.

I agree that weather is definately not affecting the price on certain days and actually, that is somewhat typical at this time of year. 

If you look at the ng seasonal for the month of July, below, you can see that it's pretty negative in July. But July is the hottest month of the year. So average heat in July usually results in prices falling. 

So when prices FELL almost $3,500 from the July 7th high to the July 20th low, even with widespread heat still in the forecast(but becoming less hot) it was not a shocker. The amount of the drop was overdone and probably related to spiking too high on 7-7 and were just back down partially from that. 

At this time of year, usually only extreme weather and/or changes from previous forecasts are decent indicators for where ng might go but on any particular day, it can do the opposite for other reasons, especially at a time of great uncertainty like this.

This is unlike a month like January(with CDD's being potentially so much greater) and the effect of residential demand for heating so massive compared to cooling, that huge changes in the weather forecast almost always are the main driver of prices.

There are 2 natural gas seasonal graphs below.

The top one is very updated....1999-2019.  The one below that is thru 10 years ago, 1991-2009. 

They are almost identical thru early August............then really deviate tremendously!

What are some things we might learn from this? I would appreciate Larry and others chiming in with views.

1.  Spring is an extraordinarily strong time frame for NG prices.......always has been. Something like 19 out of 20 years up for some embedded time frames.

2. Despite it being so dependable, in 2020 COVID caused the opposite to happen in unprecedented fashion. 

3. Late June, thru July is the weakest period of the year historically. We started that period this year, with near record heat and CDD's being added to the weather forecast making it MORE bullish than the seasonal pressure.

4. That support gave way in early July with the heat dialed in and the last couple of weeks are acting like a typical July down seasonal, especially with less heat(even though its still pretty hot).

5. The August seasonal has apparently changed in the last 10 years. Used to be very weak and a continuation of the weak July(maybe it was hurricane premium coming out, when most of the production was coming from the Gulf).  The more recent seasonal is nuetral for August. 

6. Then, we have both graphs lining up together with Sept and Oct being very strong months historically. 

7. Then, we have huge divergence which is very surprising to me based on what I "thought" which might be a bias. 

I always remember November as being my most profitable month in the 1990's and it was always picking the October high and being short in November. I remember lots of Halloweens, trick or treating with the kids and having an especially fun time checking price quotes on the short positions.  However, we had some very mild Novembers in the late 1990's too. ...so it makes sense.2 The 2009 seasonal shows that. However, the 2019 seasonal shows the complete opposite. The biggest difference of the year between these 2 graphs. November from the 2019 graph actually has the greatest % increase of any month. WOW!

Before commenting more, I will need to look at HDD data for November to see if the Novembers from 2010-2019 were that much colder than the Novembers from 1991-1999 that they replaced on the 20 year chart. Memory tells me yes. Recent Halloweens for me......now trick or treating with the GRAND kids have featured everybody bundled up. Last Thanksgiving featured some major cold. 

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart  

2000-2019 seasonal below

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart/

The above chart represents the seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NG) Continuous Contract for the past 19 years.

• Date range: January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2009 
• Type: Commodity Futures – US 
• Symbol: NG 

Any comments are appreciated.

These were the temps for this last report.

Pretty hot in the East............where a lot of people had their AC's cranked up. So the small injection was EXPECTED.

68 rigs are the lowest in history.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

Thanks for this Thursday! Here's your weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57037/

07/31 08:57a CST  *DJ Natural Gas Erases Earlier Gains, Falls 0.2% to $1.83 on 
Expected August Cooldown 
 

07/31 01:49p CST  DJ Natural Gas Falls for a Second Day -- Market Talk 
 
  14:49 ET - Natural gas prices fall for a second straight day, ending the 
session 1.6% lower at $1.799/mmBtu as another decline in US stock markets, and 
cooler weather forecasts for August continue to chip away at price support. 
NatGasweather.com says the most recent weather models point to "big, cooler 
trends for this weekend and next week as weather systems track through the 
northern and east-central US with highs of only 70s to 80s." It adds that 
Hurricane Isaias is likely to bring cooler temperatures to Florida and other 
parts up the east coast starting this weekend, adding to fears of weaker demand 
as people lower the power on their air-conditioners. (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 

Thanks Larry!

In Detroit and trying to catch up. The weather is much warmer vs last Friday, which caused a sharply higher open, near the highs from early Friday.

We spiked a bit above those highs in very early trading but since then, have been treading water right around the Fri Highs, currently 1.863  +$640/contract.

Weather Monday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57136/

Models overnight confirming the increasing August heat.

Well above the highs on Friday now.

Mike,

 I agree that today's rise is largely due to the hotter models. But I'll also say that there's got to be way more to it than just the heat as far as it being up 17%! A 10 or so CDD increase from the Friday forecast of course does not by itself justify anything close to a 17% increase. I've been saying other things have been supporting NG.

Irrational exuberance.  Unless a well blew up somewhere.  

I agree 100% Larry!

The only time that the weather could possibly justify a powerful move like this, by itself would be if storage levels were critically low.

Several other factors that both of us have mentioned are at play.

One of them mentioned previously, is the way that ng trades.

Traders don't come in each day and assign a new fair value to the price based on the additional changes in supplies/demand.

In the long run, that's what happens but on individual days, you have people with the same herd mentality, sometimes almost all of them wanting to buy or to sell. 

This creates an imbalance of orders from one side that can only be overcome with offsetting orders  with enough size at prices well beyond the current price. 

Today is an EXTREME example of that. Everybody wants to buy, nobody wants to sell. Bidders are willing to hit the offers......regardless of the price.

Price does not matter today. The mentality is "I don't want to be short anymore no matter what" along with "I want to be long".

All the other factors led to the perfect storm set up.

Historically low prices, over sold, huge funds short, seasonals turning up, cooling weather forecasts for a couple of weeks, SUDDENLY turning much warmer with the heating in the updated forecasts looking like part of a new pattern that will define August.

Almost forgot the biggest factor............rig count at a record low for weeks.

We've speculated about when this would eventually cause the market to go much higher as supplies dry up.

Seems like the answer is..............NOW!

Actually, its been building for a couple of weeks with the recent bottom and today triggered a bunch of technical break out formations/indicators which confirm that bottom(which is adding much more fuel to the buying frenzy).

The september contract is going to trade more than 300,000 contracts today.  WOW!

Prices may not get that low again for a very long time.....maybe never.

 Mike, good points. By the way, NG peaked as high as an amazing +20% on the day!!

 I've been following NG for many years and I don't recall ever seeing the most active contract of NG having more volume than the most active contract of crude oil on any day! Maybe it happened once or twice before and I missed it but I have my doubts.

12z GFS ensemble was actually 6 CDD cooler than the previous solution but is just 1 solution within an over all pattern(change) that is heating things up. 

On a day like today, the market may not pay as much attention to model to model run changes. 

08/03 01:42p CST  DJ Natural Gas Ends 16.8% Higher on Rising Temperatures -- 
Market Talk 
 
  14:42 ET - Natural gas prices end sharply higher, rising 16.8% to 
$2.101/mmBtu, the highest closing price since May 5 as forecasts for a 
warmer-than-expected August bring out buyers of the commodity. "The move higher 
today is a function of a few observable trends over the weekend. 1) weather 
models added back some heat to the August forecast, 2) LNG volumes ticked back 
above 4 Bcf/d (signaling July will be the trough in LNG volumes this summer) 
and 3) US production continues to remain rather sluggish," says Kevin Sakofs of 
S&P Global Platts Analytics. "When you add all of these elements together, the 
market might be pricing in less potential for storage congestion later this 
summer." (dan.molinski@wsj.com)  
 
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires 
 

Thanks Larry!

Playing chess with dad for a few more hours and looking forward to more discussions.

After going through all the 2 week forcasts for all the cities I keep up with, via the NWS, there is no way that I could justify weather as being the main influence in today's move. But I would agree with the attitude of traders.

One thing I have learned over the years, is that technicals can't always rule. Even when they make sense. Sometimes it's about the attitude of the traders. Which may or may not make any sense accoring to technicals.

Exports are down. Well count is still down, even though it went up 1. Supply is still high. Usage is still low. Weather is not that bullish. Even with so much that is technically against NG, the only thing left is the attitude of the traders. And that's not technical.

With 0Z/6Z ensemble CDDs averaged out pretty close to where they were 24 hours ago and Maxar's forecast pretty much flat (only a 1 CDD increase), today's additional big rise is not due to warmer forecast changes. Something(s) else bullish is behind the scenes, likely a tightening of the supply/demand balance as well as the somewhat related reduction of storage surpluses due to a variety of supply/demand related items. A seasonal upswing as Mike mentioned could also be playing a part psychologically. The forecast continuing to be quite hot in the 6-15 day range , even though essentially not hotter, is certainly supportive and therefore also a factor in today's rise

I agree entirely with that assessment Larry.

We are definitely not trading run to run changes in CDD's, which are only temporary glitches in a major pattern change to much warmer coming up. 

So the market is thinking about some small injections well into August now and contemplating something less than a supply glut towards the end of the injection season.

The market has passed out of the ideal buying set up mode that it was in for me for the past several weeks. 

Technical indicators looking at longer term price movements are probably flashing a buy signal on many computer systems right now, which could inspire more buying but we are too far off the lows for this to be the best spot to buy on heat..........much of which is dialed in.

Terrific Tuesday to you! Here's your weather:  

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57216/

From yesterday's/Mondays close(since it was one of the biggest days in years)

After Tuesday's close:

Natural Gas Bulls Send September Futures to Fresh High; Cash Strength Continues

One day after posting the largest single-day gain in the last year and a half, natural gas futures moved another leg higher, surging past the long-term high established earlier this year. September Nymex gas settled Tuesday at $2.193, up 9.2 cents from Monday’s close. October rose 9.5 cents to $2.334. Spot gas prices also continued… 

   August 4, 2020

Wonderful Wednesday to You! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57245/

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 31, 2020   |  Released: August 6, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: August 13, 2020 

                                                                                                                        Slightly bearish vs bullish expectations                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,274 Bcf as of Friday, July 31, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 33 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 601 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 429 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,845 Bcf. At 3,274 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

   Latest ReleaseAug 06, 2020  Actual   33B  Forecast  30B    Previous   26B    

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Natural Gas Futures Slip as EIA Storage Data Reflects ‘Woefully Oversupplied’ Market

Natural gas futures buckled under pressure Thursday after a slightly larger-than-expected storage injection sapped the momentum prices had earlier in the week. The September Nymex futures contract settled at $2.165, down 2.6 cents day/day. October also slipped 2.6 cents to $2.305. Spot gas prices softened across the board as well, dragging down NGI’s Spot Gas… 

By Leticia Gonzales

August 6, 2020

"Woefully oversupplied" after a weekly EIA that was only 2 bcf above the DJ News survey and others that were similar? How convenient! Sounds like BS. I think it is more profit taking/long covering after the very strong rise since late last week.

Good catch there Larry!

I have been thinking the complete opposite of "woefully oversupplied" the last month, after seeing the smallish injections.

The market obviously sees it that way too. 

A couple of months ago, when we were actually woefully oversupplied, we were making historic lows in the price.

It's seems hard to imagine us revisiting those lows anytime soon under any scenario with the current demand/supply dynamic...........even  a shift to record low residential demand. 

One can guess that a record warm Winter, if that happened would be the first opportunity.

We have 15% more gas this year in storage than we did last year at this time.  But you know that.  

All things stay the same, that means we could possibly have 4600 bcf of gas in storage by time the withdrawals start. That is a LOT of gas.  brrrrppp  :)  

Throw in the fact that the economy is firing on 5 out of 8 cylinders and I would have to say that yes, NG is woefully oversupplied.  

My 2 cents worth.  

Thanks Jim!

The market always looks ahead.

The lowest rig count in history for months  has apparently cut supplies to at least match demand losses.

Residential demand has not been affected and remains robust.

Unless the economy goes seriously backwards and demand suffers more additional losses, not sure why supplies would greatly exceed demand vs average in this environment.

That is, unless the weather turned sharply cooler to cut residential demand.

I don’t disagree with anything you say Mike.  My point is last year until the end of injection season, storage added roughly 1300 bcf or NG into storage for a total slightply over 4000bcf.  
Even with the sharp reduction in wells, if the demand isn’t there from schools, sports arenas, industry, etc it won’t matter.

Something drastic would have to happen to erase that 15% gap from last year or roughly the same amount of gas is going to get injected this year which is going to take us to at least 4400 bcf.  And the cooler weather might increase that gap over the next 2 injections.  
$3+ Dec NG with 4400 bcf in storage is a tough sell.  
 

Starting to Sizzle Saturday weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57342/