Corn still weak from all the rains coming up.
However, some of the models(latest GFS products) are building an impressive dome of death type ridge late in week 2.....................towards the end of June.
If the market believes this is going to happen and it defines the July pattern, then we are at the lows and the strength in beans tonight is from the early birds buying.
Heat and rain seem to be a consistent theme. For my part, it's interesting how spotty the rain is. I live in Akron. Dry as a bone all weekend. Went to a little village about 20 minutes south of me and they had gotten poured on. Over the last couple weeks it's been that way.
Continue to think that we may be close to the lows in this area IF, the extended maps persist on showing the "dome of death".
There is probably too much rain for key growing regions in the next week and that offsets much of the effect the impressive dome in week 2 will have on the market initially.
Beans now back higher on the day.
This is what the week 2 dome has to fight with regards to price determination in the market right now:
Rains the next 7 days .........will shift farther south and now are predicted to bomb, SD/NE/KS/IA/IL, into IN/OH, key growing areas for corn/beans over the top of the heat ridge in the south.
Day 1:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Total accumulation
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762
This is what the dome looked like on the last GFS, not quite as impressive as some recent runs.
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
Exports were outstanding for corn and beans......not so good for wheat:
Signs of strong demand for corn.
Agree jim!
Crop ratings:
Corn actually went up +1% GD/EX. Not a surprise considering how much rain fell in the key corn areas.
Beans went down -1% GD/EX, not a surprise considering MO/AR have missed all the rains and they grow more beans than corn. MO has 19% P/VP, which is what would have happened to other states if the huge rains did not come in the nick of time.
Cotton plunged more.......-4% in the GD/EX but +5% in the P/VP for the 2nd week in a row, with 26% of the crop in this category. The TX/OK crop is doing horrible but also AL has 15% P/VP. Huge acres planted this year but the crop is just 38% GD/EX vs 61% last year.
Big rains in the north caused the Spring Wheat crop rating to soar +8%, to a near record 78% vs 41% GD/EX last year. Wheat should be under some pressure tonight.
Grains really getting clobbered this evening.
CZ now down 60c from the highs 3 weeks ago and SX down almost $1.50 since then.
Wow!
Hard to go up with radars lighting up:
Go to: Most Recent Image
And with massive rains in the 7 day forecast:
Last, 18z GFS precip for 2 weeks:
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif
Should mention Trump and possible $200 Bil. Tariffs on China.
