Week in Review
4 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - May 30, 2020, 6:58 a.m.

Lots of data this week with one or two pleasant surprises.

Jobless Claims still running strong, at 2.1 million, but not as strong.  While I normally don't report Continuing Claims,  it bears note that they DROPPED almost 4 million.  Not sure exactly how to interpret that, but it can't be bad,  right?

Corporate Profits nosedived for Q1 along with the GDP which was adjusted down another few tics.  Hold on to your hats.  Q2 WILL look much worse.  It will make Q1 look like the "Good Old Days"  IMO.

 The assorted MFG metrics look bad,  but not as bad, over all. Durable and Capital Goods are troubling. 

Housing pretty much remains in the basement but does not appear to be digging faster/deeper. Home Prices continue to climb,  even with few buying??

Retail's decline slowed significantly.

Consumer Confidence/Sentiment has stabalized at historically low levels as have the State Street Investors.

I was pleasantly surprised by the Personal Income jumping 10.5%.  This is an April #, so likely unrelated to the drop in continuing claims.  I may want to dig a little more deeply and if I find anything of interest,  I'll mention it in a followup.

We continue to see overall dismal, though not AS dismal.  I'll go with a solid D for the week and upgrade the "Suck Scale" to a 9.

By metmike - May 30, 2020, 1:16 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much Tim!

I can't wait until we get back to a C- !

By TimNew - May 30, 2020, 10:06 p.m.
Like Reply

C-?   Another couple months I suspect.   Maybe less.   But the letter grading system I've traditionally used is inadequate.  An improvement deserves a better grade.   Even if the current metric is terrible.

So,  we have an additional grade on the "Suck Scale".  A C- for a GDP of -3 vs -5 would be accurate,  but it gets a "suck scale" of 9.     I'll use the additional "Suck scale" until it reaches IMO 0

By wglassfo - May 31, 2020, 12:50 a.m.
Like Reply

I wonder how long to get back to zero 

By TimNew - June 1, 2020, 12:20 p.m.
Like Reply

Best answer is however long it takes for the vast majority of metrics, particularly Employment and GDP to show growth.  Difficult to guess,  I am thinking sometime in the 3rd qtr,  but maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised. I do believe the worst is behind us...  For now at least,