Export sales:
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm
This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period June 1-7, 2018.
Wheat: Net sales of 302,300 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2018/2019.The primary destinations were the Philippines (94,600 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Japan (48,700 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), Ecuador (36,900 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (34,000 MT, including 31,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Brazil (33,000 MT).Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (12,000 MT) and South Korea (400 MT).Exports of 310,000 MT were reported to the Philippines (58,100 MT), Ecuador (36,900 MT), Guatemala (35,800 MT), Brazil (33,000 MT), and Japan (31,800 MT).
Corn: Net sales of 936,400 MT for 2017/2018 were up 12 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for South Korea (402,000 MT, including 62,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (138,000 MT, including 129,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Japan (105,100 MT, including decreases of 9,900 MT), Mexico (98,300 MT, including decreases of 13,200 MT), and Morocco (79,500 MT, including 51,500 MT switched from unknown destinations).Reductions were primarily for unknown destinations (247,600 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 240,200 MT were primarily reported for South Korea (68,000 MT), Taiwan (65,000 MT), and Japan (50,000 MT).Exports of 1,405,700 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were primarily to Mexico (361,700 MT), Vietnam (206,000 MT), South Korea (147,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (138,500 MT), and Japan (108,000 MT).
Optional Origin Sales: For 2017/2018, options were exercised to export 70,000 MT to South Korea from the United States.The current optional origin outstanding balance of 417,000 MT is for South Korea (206,000 MT), unknown destinations (91,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (70,000 MT), and Egypt (50,000 MT).For 2018/2019, new optional origin sales of 68,000 MT were reported for South Korea.The current outstanding balance of 138,000 MT is for Saudi Arabia (70,000 MT) and South Korea (68,000 MT).
Barley: No net sales were reported for the week.Exports of 1,600 MT were primarily to Japan (1,200 MT).
Sorghum: No net sales were reported for the week.Exports of 4,800 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 88 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were Japan (4,200 MT), Taiwan (300 MT), China (200 MT), and Mexico (100 MT).
Rice: Net sales of 31,000 MT for 2017/2018 were down 79 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Mexico (22,000 MT), El Salvador (3,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Saudi Arabia (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (1,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Hong Kong (500 MT).Exports of 15,700 M5T were down 93 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were El Salvador (5,500 MT), Mexico (4,900 MT), Canada (2,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (800 MT), and Jordan (500 MT).
Soybeans: Net sales of 519,600 MT for 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Indonesia (133,100 MT, including 93,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,300 MT), unknown destinations (73,500 MT), Egypt (70,000 MT, including decreases of 5,000 MT), Japan (64,800 MT), and Portugal (45,000 MT, switched from Egypt).Reductions were reported for Argentina (700 MT) and South Korea (100 MT). For 2018/2019, net sales of 291,000 MT primarily reported for Mexico (154,600 MT) and unknown destinations (123,000 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Japan (100 MT). Exports of 597,400 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (140,000 MT), Mexico (127,800 MT), China (68,400 MT), Pakistan (67,700 MT), and Portugal (45,000 MT).
Optional Origin Sales: For 2018/2019, the current optional origin balance of 165,000 MT is for China.
Export for Own Account: The current outstanding balance of 41,800 MT is for Canada.
Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 74,600 MT for 2017/2018--a marketing-year low--were down 43 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Libya (26,500 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (13,100 MT, including decreases of 2,700 MT), Indonesia (10,000 MT), Canada (7,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Vietnam (7,600 MT). Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (11,600 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), and Spain (2,000 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 23,300 MT were primarily reported for Panama (14,500 MT) and El Salvador (8,400 MT).Exports of 309,900 MT were up 58 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were Vietnam (50,000 MT), Italy (40,000 MT), Mexico (35,500 MT), Libya (26,500 MT), and Canada (24,000 MT).
Soybean Oil: Net sales reductions of 200 MT for 2017/2018 resulted as increases for South Korea (16,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (2,600 MT), and Colombia (2,500 MT), were more than offset by reductions for unknown destinations (16,000 MT), Guatemala (3,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (2,600 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 8,000 MT were reported for South Korea.Exports of 15,400 MT were down 61 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were South Korea (12,000 MT) and Mexico (2,800 MT).
Cotton: Net sales of 34,800 running bales for 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Vietnam (16,000 RB), Turkey (12,600 RB, including decreases of 3,400 RB), Peru (9,400 RB), Indonesia (5,000 RB, including 700 RB switched from China and 200 RB switched from Japan), and South Korea (2,900 RB, including 700 RB switched from China).Reductions were primarily reported for China (16,200 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 226,700 RB were reported for China (107,600 RB), Bangladesh (35,100 RB), Vietnam (23,600 RB), and El Salvador (21,100 RB).Exports of 459,900 RB were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were Vietnam (128,500 RB), Turkey (64,500 RB), Indonesia (49,900 RB), China (34,400 RB), and Thailand (25,800 RB).Net sales of Pima totaling 7,700 RB for 2017/2018 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were primarily reported for India (3,500 RB) and Egypt (2,800 RB).For 2018/2019, net sales of 32,400 RB were reported for Vietnam (18,300 RB), China (13,600 RB), and Peru (500 RB).Exports of 9,300 RB were up 11 percent from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were China
Bullish USDA crop report and reaction on Tuesday(but bearish weather taking a toll)
12-Jun-2018 11:01:13 AM
June 12 (Reuters) - The following tables summarize trade expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
U.S. ending stocks and wheat production figures are quoted in billions of bushels. World ending stocks and production figures are quoted in millions of tonnes.
USDA 2017-18 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 1.080__ | 1.079 | 1.045-1.100 | 1.070 |
Corn | 2.102__ | 2.166 | 2.132-2.192 | 2.182 |
Soybeans | 0.505__ | 0.522 | 0.473-0.550 | 0.530 |
USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | 2018-19 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 0.946__ | 0.958 | 0.820-0.994 | 0.955 |
Corn | 1.577__ | 1.663 | 1.495-1.790 | 1.682 |
Soybeans | 0.385__ | 0.417 | 0.395-0.480 | 0.415 |
USDA 2017-18 world grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 272.37__ | 269.99 | 267.00-271.00 | 270.46 |
Corn | 192.69__ | 193.39 | 190.00-195.10 | 194.85 |
Soybeans | _92.49__ | 91.35 | 88.30-93.10 | 92.16 |
USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | 2018-19 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 266.16__ | 263.00 | 260.00-265.80 | 264.33 |
Corn | 154.69__ | 157.56 | 150.67-161.00 | 159.15 |
Soybeans | _87.02__ | 86.74 | 83.50-92.10 | 86.70 |
USDA 2018-19 U.S. wheat production
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | May | |
estimate | estimates | estimates | estimates | |
All wheat | 1.827__ | 1.822 | 1.787-1.870 | 1.821 |
All winter | 1.198__ | 1.190 | 1.159-1.221 | 1.192 |
Hard red winter | 0.650__ | 0.645 | 0.608-0.670 | 0.647 |
Soft red winter | 0.316__ | 0.318 | 0.310-0.325 | 0.315 |
White winter | 0.232__ | 0.228 | 0.202-0.242 | 0.229 |
USDA 2017-18 South American corn and soy production
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
ARGENTINA | ||||
Corn | 33.00___ | 32.53 | 31.00-33.00 | 33.00 |
Soybeans | 37.00___ | 37.89 | 36.00-39.00 | 39.00 |
BRAZIL | ||||
Corn | 85.00___ | 84.47 | 78.39-87.00 | 87.00 |
Soybeans | 119.00___ | 117.43 | 116.50-119.00 | 117.00 |
USDA world production
June USDA | May USDA | June USDA | May USDA | |
2017-18 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2018-19 | |
estimate | estimate | estimate | estimate | |
Argentina wheat | _18.00 | 18.00 | _19.50 | 19.50 |
Australia wheat | _21.50 | 21.50 | _24.00 | 24.00 |
Canada wheat | _30.00 | 30.00 | _32.50 | 32.50 |
Russia wheat | _84.99 | 84.99 | _68.50 | 72.00 |
Argentina corn | _33.00 | 33.00 | _41.00 | 41.00 |
Brazil corn | _85.00 | 87.00 | _96.00 | 96.00 |
South Africa corn | _13.50 | 13.50 | _14.00 | 14.00 |
China corn | 215.89 | 215.89 | 225.00 | 225.00 |
Ukraine corn | _24.12 | 24.12 | _30.00 | 30.00 |
Argentina soy | _37.00 | 39.00 | _56.00 | 56.00 |
Brazil soy | 119.00 | 117.00 | 118.00 | 117.00 |
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
COARSE GRAINS:
"This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08. Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989. Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels"
Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina.
Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million
2 week totals for rain on the last GFS
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif
Just too much rain for grains to rally. Rain makes grain in J-J-A and more rain, makes more grain.
Am surprised that grains are getting hammered this badly though
CZ now down almost 50c from the highs 2+ weeks ago! SX down almost a whopping $1.20!
How much lower can we go?
18z GFS total rains for 2 weeks(which will be updated in the next hour, then 6 hours later)
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif