Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - April 23, 2020, 9:07 p.m.

Lucky April 23st to you! 


Must read! This study confirms what we have been telling you for the last month:

                Game changer-Summer kills COVID-19

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/

 

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.


Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"      


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

                    

Comments
By metmike - April 23, 2020, 9:07 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

 

Warm in the Plains and West this week. Chilly in the Great Lakes/Northeast!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                                      

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 9:08 p.m.
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Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7


Warm reds West to the Plains.......Chilly Blues in the Ohio Valley,  Great Lakes and Northeast.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:14 p.m.
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Surface Weather features day 3-7:


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:16 p.m.
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By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:16 p.m.
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Excessive rain potential.


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:17 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:


Turning stormy South/Southeast US.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
               
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
         
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                F
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                       

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:18 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Static mapAnimated map

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:21 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Dry air/low dew points................that likely helps virus's in the air to  survive longer.

Higher dew points cuts down on survival time.

It's thought that doubling the humidity(amount of moisture in the air) will decrease the amount of a virus that survives in the air for 1 hour by 50%. Based on the study out today.......we do know this now with COVID-19. 


Game changing-Summer kills COVID-19

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/51095/

Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:22 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Soils in many parts of the Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:26 p.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/                                                              

             

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

            

Drought Monitor for conus

       

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:30 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:



Last Tuesday: Zonal flow.

Wednesday:  Turning wetter with more active southern stream flow on the majority of solutions. Upper level trough West to Plains.

Thursday: Turning wetter.

Friday:  Not as wet today. Zonal average. 

Monday: The average looks like it would be wet.................but most of the individual solutions are dry.

Tuesday: The average actually looks drier today........but many of the individual solutions look pretty wet. Several solutions have a chilly northern stream connection in the Midwest/Northeast.

Thursday: Warm West to Plains with potentially active southern stream, upper trough west, upper ridge Southern Plains.  Northern stream in the Great Lakes to Northeast.......so cool there. Lots of uncertainty.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 07, 2020 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:31 p.m.
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Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:32 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


Last: Wednesday: Positive anomaly Rockies to N.Plains with negative anomaly in E.Pacific and slight negative East Coast. This is much different that the Canadian model and much drier. Also warmer Rockies to the Plains.

Thursday: Slight positive anomaly over the Midwest, so milder.

Friday: No distinct anomalies.

Monday: Modest ridge/positive anomaly western 2/3rd of the country.......warm and dry there. Negative anomaly in the Northeast, chilly temps there.

Tuesday: Same as Monday. Drier than the Canadian model but low confidence in precip. 

Thursday: Slight positive anomaly......except far Northeast that has a negative anomaly.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

                                    

Last  Saturday: AO positive but drops a bit late. NAO negative but back near 0 late. PNA negative but back near 0 late. Fading influence from these indices that tell us more about the northern stream, as the southern stream becomes more dominant.                              

Sunday: AO is much lower today, even a few negative solutions, same with the NAO, so there is some support for the chilly air in the Midwest/Northeast to continue longer than the models think. Negative PNA moves towards 0.

                                    

Monday: AO drops to around 0, NAO goes up than down both have a wide spread. PNA increases to around 0.  Nothing from these indices worth dialing into the upcoming pattern. They are best used during the cold season as northern stream indicators. The -NAO at times does suggest some chilly weather in the Northeast quadrant.

Tuesday: All indices slightly negative. Leaning chilly to the Northeast.

Wednesday: AO, NAO and PNA all near 0.

Thursday: All indices near 0.

Friday: Indices near 0 but NAO leaning negative has me leaning chilly for the Great Lakes/Northeast.

                                    

Monday: Indices near 0.                         

Tuesday: Just like Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday: All indices near 0 at 2 weeks.


By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:34 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

                                    

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:35 p.m.
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Extreme weather potential week 2.......rain:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - April 23, 2020, 11:36 p.m.
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Extreme weather in week 2:


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png