Natural Gas-Wednesday
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Started by metmike - June 13, 2018, 9:58 a.m.

Nymex July Natural Gas Holding Steady Ahead of Open

     8:58 AM    

July natural gas prices were set to open 2.4 cents higher at $2.963 Wednesday morning as slightly warmer trends showed up in the latest weather data

By tjc - June 13, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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Nat Gas futures have remained firm, gaining in last half hour.  Perhaps traders beginning to believe in extended heat.

(In your opinion, does the nat gas have the  'best' weather traders/forecasters?  I usually see a grain move a day after nat gas.)

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
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I don't know if I would call it the best weather market. One doesn't have to worry about things like the tarriff or exports or value of the dollar but the EIA report on Thursdays and reaction afterwards is like having a monthly USDA crop report every week.

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 11:49 a.m.
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The other thing about natural gas is that there are some wild gyrations in price that spike thru support and resistence.

Looks like that $2.98 level resistance level was just tested again for the umpteenth time. If we get hotter for late June, then we should break above $3

Near term heat is very impressive for the Midwest and points south but then it cools down before the next potential heat comes in later in june.

Temp anomolies the next 5 days

For highs below


Temp anomolies days 3-7     FOR HIGHS BELOW


By metmike - June 13, 2018, 12:09 p.m.
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Last weeks storage report:


+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region06/01/1805/25/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East351  328  23  23   452  -22.3  460  -23.7  
Midwest341  315  26  26   610  -44.1  505  -32.5  
Mountain121  113  8  8   171  -29.2  145  -16.6  
Pacific231  221  10  10   267  -13.5  279  -17.2  
South Central773  748  25  25   1,116  -30.7  940  -17.8  
   Salt245  235  10  10   345  -29.0  284  -13.7  
   Nonsalt528  514  14  14   771  -31.5  656  -19.5  
Total1,817  1,725  92  92   2,616  -30.5  2,329  -22.0  

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 12:16 p.m.
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Last week's EIA report was based on the temps/period below

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 12:18 p.m.
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This weeks EIA storage report(out tomorrow at 9:30am) will be based on the period below:

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 12:20 p.m.
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Do you think that we have an injection of +100 bcf tomorrow?

By WxFollower - June 13, 2018, 1:17 p.m.
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 There were 12 fewed CDDs vs the prior week but no holiday this time. So, I expect these two factors will largely cancel out and result in a similar injetion to last week's report.

By WxFollower - June 13, 2018, 1:26 p.m.
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Futures for July delivery rose 1% to $2.968 a million British thermal units 
at the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for the highest close since late 
  Hotter weather in the summer typically boosts usage of natural gas to power 
air conditioners, giving prices a lift. Updated weather forecasts Wednesday 
showed marginally hotter temperatures over the next two weeks.

 The above is from DJ News this morning.  The model consensus/forecasts came in a little warmer vs yesterday overall for much of the next 2 weeks.

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:29 p.m.
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I'll guess +100 bcf for tomorrow.

How about you?

By WxFollower - June 13, 2018, 1:41 p.m.
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 I'm going with +92 for tomorrow's EIA report, despite there having been 12 fewer CDDs, because there's no holiday this time vs there having been one impacting last week's report. So, I have these 2 factors largely canceling each other out.

So far we have MetMike at +100 and WxFollower at +92.

Any more guesses?