Nymex July Natural Gas Holding Steady Ahead of Open
8:58 AM
July natural gas prices were set to open 2.4 cents higher at $2.963 Wednesday morning as slightly warmer trends showed up in the latest weather data
MetMike
Nat Gas futures have remained firm, gaining in last half hour. Perhaps traders beginning to believe in extended heat.
(In your opinion, does the nat gas have the 'best' weather traders/forecasters? I usually see a grain move a day after nat gas.)
tjc,
I don't know if I would call it the best weather market. One doesn't have to worry about things like the tarriff or exports or value of the dollar but the EIA report on Thursdays and reaction afterwards is like having a monthly USDA crop report every week.
The other thing about natural gas is that there are some wild gyrations in price that spike thru support and resistence.
Looks like that $2.98 level resistance level was just tested again for the umpteenth time. If we get hotter for late June, then we should break above $3
Near term heat is very impressive for the Midwest and points south but then it cools down before the next potential heat comes in later in june.
Temp anomolies the next 5 days
For highs below
FOR LOWS BELOW
Temp anomolies days 3-7 FOR HIGHS BELOW
FOR LOWS BELOW
Last weeks storage report:
+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/01/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 06/01/18 | 05/25/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 351 | 328 | 23 | 23 | 452 | -22.3 | 460 | -23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 341 | 315 | 26 | 26 | 610 | -44.1 | 505 | -32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 121 | 113 | 8 | 8 | 171 | -29.2 | 145 | -16.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 231 | 221 | 10 | 10 | 267 | -13.5 | 279 | -17.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 773 | 748 | 25 | 25 | 1,116 | -30.7 | 940 | -17.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 245 | 235 | 10 | 10 | 345 | -29.0 | 284 | -13.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 528 | 514 | 14 | 14 | 771 | -31.5 | 656 | -19.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,817 | 1,725 | 92 | 92 | 2,616 | -30.5 | 2,329 | -22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Last week's EIA report was based on the temps/period below
This weeks EIA storage report(out tomorrow at 9:30am) will be based on the period below:
Larry,
Do you think that we have an injection of +100 bcf tomorrow?
Mike,
There were 12 fewed CDDs vs the prior week but no holiday this time. So, I expect these two factors will largely cancel out and result in a similar injetion to last week's report.
Futures for July delivery rose 1% to $2.968 a million British thermal units at the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for the highest close since late January. Hotter weather in the summer typically boosts usage of natural gas to power air conditioners, giving prices a lift. Updated weather forecasts Wednesday showed marginally hotter temperatures over the next two weeks.
The above is from DJ News this morning. The model consensus/forecasts came in a little warmer vs yesterday overall for much of the next 2 weeks.
I'll guess +100 bcf for tomorrow.
How about you?
I'm going with +92 for tomorrow's EIA report, despite there having been 12 fewer CDDs, because there's no holiday this time vs there having been one impacting last week's report. So, I have these 2 factors largely canceling each other out.
So far we have MetMike at +100 and WxFollower at +92.
Any more guesses?