Miscounting Covid 19 fatalities?
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Started by TimNew - April 5, 2020, 12:59 p.m.

I've read a few articles that claim the covid virus fatalities are being misrepresented.   If the suspected cause is covid, it's counted, without verification.   If the virus is present but the cause was actually something else, it's counted,  a few other examples.


https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/

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By WxFollower - April 5, 2020, 1:54 p.m.
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 The Western Journal, who I previously had never heard of, is rated as favoring conservative viewpoints. A claim that there are fewer deaths from COVID-19 would favor Trump. Therefore, I’m dismissing this as very likely to be fake news:


https://www.allsides.com/news-source/western-journalism


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/western-journalism/%3famp


 Sorry, but this has no credibility for being considered an objective news source.


By metmike - April 5, 2020, 2:32 p.m.
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This is very profound Tim!


Mainly because many more people dying from COVID-19 are sick and old than from other virus's on this scale.


With some, you can ask "Did they die from COVID-19 or Did they die of their (terminal) illness while having COVID-19?


Seems like,  in almost every case, even if you probably would have died this year, if you had COVID-19, that's what you died from.

One way to think of it. We can ask, of those that died, how many were expected to live at least a year? Those deaths are clearly from the virus............ UNEXPECTED deaths.

With  the rest, there does not exist in medical science, the ability to accurately predict the date of a death. People expected to die in 6 months can live for 6 years, or vice versa. More often, sick people with unknown outcomes that could be another month of life(sudden but explainable death and not surprising) or another decade(with medical assistance) will be the largest percent of deaths.

For sure some of them would have died within a year but when they die WITH the coronavirus, we can't know which ones that would have been. 


Life for many sick/old is hanging in the balance every day and everything needs to be medically perfect to keep them struggling along.............indefinitely in some cases until their disease worsens or something disrupts the medically perfect environment sustaining them.  

100 years ago, it's likely that most of these old/sick people would not be alive. Modern medicine is sustaining their lives but they are the weakest of all.

100 years ago, during the Spanish Flu the kill rate was higher for younger people than COVID-19. Apples to apples comparison with these younger age groups.

When we compare aged 65+ deaths in 2020 from coronavirus to those deaths of 65+ from the Spanish Flu, we can see that most of the most vulnerable today that are dying............would be dead already if they lived a century ago using their science/medicine.

Another element is the fact that the old/sick are vaccinated with the highest coverage for the flu. 70% for those over 65 and as much as 90% for the old and sick.

So the old and sick death numbers from the entire population getting COVID-19 are being compared with, mostly the 10% of the same group that did not have any protection from the flu.


Whenever somebody brings up a flu comparison to CV, alot of people will tune out of the conversation because they know that CV is more contagious and more deadly and it is.

Maybe 3 times more contagious. It could actually be less deadly for the youngest people and likely is less deadly for babies. 

What I hear frequently are cases of  younger people dying and it being cited as evidence "see, its deadly to young people too!"  Like the article below:


"New York has more confirmed cases than anywhere else in the U.S., and about 1 in 5 hospitalizations are occurring in people under age 44, according to datareleased by the city’s health department."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-in-young-people-ny-patients-skew-younger-some-die


metmike: 

Nobody is saying that younger people are not affected and many die but look at that stat.  60% of the population is under age 44 but they are just 20% of the population, so they are UNDER represented in hospitalizations by a factor of 8 and with deaths many, many more times greater at old ages vs young...........but yes, alot of young  people.


This one is much more compelling in using evidence that proves themselves wrong. Notice how clever/dishonest they were in using the stats for patients 65 to 74 to represent "middle-aged people so they could make the case that millennials are not invincible. They intentionally left out the stats of middle aged in the studies that use 45-64 as that age band and they used only stats of 85+ for the elderly, when all the studies start at 65+ that they are calling middle aged up to 74.


New analysis breaks down age-group risk for coronavirus — and shows millennials are not invincible

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/


"But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

The rates for middle-aged people fell between these extremes, while 29% to 44% of patients 65 to 74 were hospitalized and 8% to 19% needed intensive care; 2.7% to 4.9% in this age group died."

By WxFollower - April 5, 2020, 8:18 p.m.
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 Here's another (opposite) view on this, fatalities are likely being UNDERstated rather than overstated:


 "Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count"

 "A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives."

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/ar-BB12bSIa?ocid=spartanntp


This is a left biased source but the other is right biased. So, now we have more balance in this thread.

By metmike - April 5, 2020, 9:14 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

I actually wasn't even thinking about sources, left or right  but just using reasoning and statistics.


The source that I used to show my  point, would not have a bias either way I don't think 


On that under count, you definitely could be right in the beginning. In fact, thinking about it, when we were grossly under testing there must have been  people not tested that died from it.

However, the number of deaths early on, when that was happening are minuscule compared to the huge  number of deaths now and certainly, almost everybody with symptoms severe enough to die from it is being clearly identified. 




By wglassfo - April 5, 2020, 9:36 p.m.
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Although I am not infected as of yet that I know of

It still makes me uncomfortable to be classified as the old and weak

I suppose when my time comes, not much I can do about it except take precautions, now