Natural Gas-Tuesday
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Started by metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:41 a.m.

From Natural Gas Intelligence:

Larry, you are going to love this.

Previously, this was their early opening call until just after 8am.

Sustained Heat in Forecasts Set to Lift July Natural Gas at Open


But the last GFS this morning was much cooler than all the other guidance and as we got close and this started taking a toll and the market open went from:

June 12, 2018


July Set to Open Sharply Higher on Weather Forecast’s Flip to Lasting Heat

To suddenly, minutes later:


July Natural Gas Set to Open Lower as More Cooling Shows up in Overnight Forecasts

 This was text for their original higher opening call:                                                                

July natural gas was set to open about 1.5 cents higher at $2.964 Tuesday as the hot weather trends that showed up in Monday’s forecasts mostly held in the latest model runs.

Some datasets were a touch hotter and others slightly cooler, but most important, holding hotter trends for this coming weekend over the Midwest and East as well as with the hot upper ridge strengthening over the southern and central United States June 23-27.

Where the data has been hotter since late last week is this coming weekend into early next week, as a warm ridge sets up over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic to add several cooling degree days (CDD) and Bcfs in demand as high temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, including in Chicago, NatGasWeather said.

“The pattern late next week still looks comfortable across the west, central and northern U.S. and thus is seen as neutral for national demand,” the forecaster said. “However, we still expect the hot southern U.S. upper ridge to gain strength June 23-28, which would result in highs of 90s and 100s expanding to dominate the southern half of the country, with some coverage of 90s also likely over portions of the northern U.S.”

With that said, the data continues to struggle on the exact placement of where the core of this hot upper ridge will set up in late June and will need refining, NatGasWeather said. It’s difficult to know if the late June pattern is hot enough to take out $3 on the summer strip, but it’s close, especially if the hot ridge the last week of June were to be more definitive in including the Midwest and East.

“Prices overnight are higher and nearing $3, suggesting the markets must view recent weather data as hot enough,” NatGasWeather said.

Indeed, the July and August contracts are “moving out significantly” this morning and cash prices have remained incredibly strong, “indicating that this is almost entirely a weather-driven market at this time,” Bespoke Weather Services said. Despite a couple of overnight CDDs losses, the forecast still remains quite bullish, with far more limited storage injections looking likely later through June.

“That said, balances remain unimpressive and we have seen injection expectations for next week tick up, as has been the case much of the last month as forecasts have verified a bit less impressive than modeled,” Bespoke chief meteorologist Jacob Meisel said.

With the strip clearly lagging, Bespoke sees the potential for a cash-led pop to pull the July contract over the $3 level, but any spike being difficult to sustain. “...there is short-term upside, but any rally above $3 is likely a strong short opportunity,” Meisel said.

EBW Analytics agreed that momentum from Monday's gains is likely to carry prices higher again early Tuesday, with the July contract retesting resistance at $2.98-2.99, as it did three times earlier this month. “Unless forecasts continue to trend significantly higher, resistance is likely to hold,” CEO Andy Weissman said.

Meanwhile, countering the bullish nature of forecasted heat is the potential for a sizable decrease in the year-over-year storage deficit when the Energy Information Administration issues storage figures, Mobius Risk Group said. Market expectations are for an inventory report in the mid to upper 90s Bcf, which would be roughly 2 Bcf/d larger than the same week last year.

“Reductions in the year/year storage deficit (800 Bcf) have recently caused tests of downside price support, and with the market net long 193,000 contracts, sidelined bears may be looking for re-entry opportunities. Looking ahead there is the potential for a three- to four-week stretch of similar data points,” Mobius Risk Group analysts said.

There is currently 1,817 Bcf in storage, and thus “an average injection of 73 Bcf per week would be needed in order for storage to reach the 3.5 Tcf mark ahead of the winter withdrawal season,” Mobius said. Over the 23-week period from June 8-Nov. 2 last year, weekly injections averaged 53 Bcf.

A simplistic view suggests each week would need to be 3 Bcf/d loose to the prior year’s comparable injection to reach the 3.5 Tcf threshold. As a result, “this Thursday’s storage report should not be considered a bearish indicator unless the injection is larger than 103 Bcf,” Mobius said.

Crude oil futures were set to open 8 cents lower at $66.02/bbl, while RBOB gasoline futures were called slightly more than a penny lower at $2.09/gal.


By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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The 7 day temps from last week thru Friday are below(used for the next EIA reporting period this Thursday)

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
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Last weeks storage report:


+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region06/01/1805/25/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East351  328  23  23   452  -22.3  460  -23.7  
Midwest341  315  26  26   610  -44.1  505  -32.5  
Mountain121  113  8  8   171  -29.2  145  -16.6  
Pacific231  221  10  10   267  -13.5  279  -17.2  
South Central773  748  25  25   1,116  -30.7  940  -17.8  
   Salt245  235  10  10   345  -29.0  284  -13.7  
   Nonsalt528  514  14  14   771  -31.5  656  -19.5  
Total1,817  1,725  92  92   2,616  -30.5  2,329  -22.0  

By WxFollower - June 12, 2018, 1:01 p.m.
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 Interesting text. But your links and headlines are for 6/11 and 6/8?

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:28 p.m.
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Not the top one Larry.

Read the headlines of the original call for a higher open, that suddenly changed to lower........Tuesday.

Some of the stuff that I copy is from a few days ago but not the top one.

"July natural gas was set to open about 1.5 cents higher at $2.964 Tuesday as the hot weather trends that showed up in Monday’s forecasts mostly held in the latest model runs."

They saw the higher market overnight until some time after 6 am and had that story already written..........then, suddenly had to yank it when the ng tanked from just the opposite happening. 

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:33 p.m.
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This latest GFS is warmer/hotter than the previous one.

This gave ng a bounce here but we will see if it holds. We dialed in alot of heat yesterday and overnight...........and can go higher still if we add heat again but we got cooler with the previous GFS.

We stalled at huge resistance just below $3 for the umpteenth time. If we close lower it might look like a top if forecasts are trending cooler..........especially since seasonals turn strongly lower thru July and we are due for a top.

What do you think Larry?

By WxFollower - June 12, 2018, 2:53 p.m.
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06/12 11:14a CST  DJ Natural Gas Retreats From Highs 
  By Benjamin Parkin  
  Natural gas prices fell on Tuesday as traders locked in profits on a recent 
  Futures for July fell 1% to $2.921 a million British thermal units on the 
New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising near $3 overnight. Prices had 
started the week with a rally.  
  "The market is unwilling to go above $3," said Kyle Cooper, a consultant at 
ION Energy. "That's providing a lot of resistance."  

Mike, the above is from the morning update at DJ News.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 3:03 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

Looks like ng has been trading in a range for numerous trading sessions now............around 2.880 on the down side and 2.980 on the upside. 

The current price is just a bit closer to the highs but in the middle. 

I thought we were going to break out to the upside late yesterday evening and very early this morning......then the 6z GFS put the kibosh on it by coming out cooler.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:47 p.m.
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Closing comments:     

July Natural Gas Hits Resistance, Slips a Penny; Spot Gas Weakens Despite Heat

     5:29 PM    

What started out as a promising sign of a move toward $3 for natural gas futures Tuesday morning eventually fizzled by midday, even as weather models maintained hotter trends for the coming weekend over the U.S. Midwest and East. The Nymex July contract settled at $2.939, down 1 cent on the day

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:49 p.m.
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From weather:(bearish NG and probably causing some weakness this evening)                           

The just updated 18Z GFS is pretty bearish for later in week 2........the period that is most in doubt. Some solutions build a dome in. NOT this one. Instead cool northwest flow.

Maps below:

 Image URL: gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_htgfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif gfs_namer_360_500_vort_htgfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thickgfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif gfs_namer_360_850_temp_htgfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif