Thanks, metmike, for presenting the very impressive resumes of Dr Fauci and his team, .
Yet,,,, I am wondering...
During the last few days, Dr Fauci has enjoyed a large number of appearances on the news media. After all, he is THE scientist who can tell us the truth about corona. Quite often, he had to contradict Pres Trump's optimistic comments. Most of Dr. Fauci's comments predicted a dire future.
Maybe, it was my imagination, but it looked to me like he had a gleeful expression on his face on these occasions... ah, well,.. it's probably only my imagination.
Then came, what in my opinion was a "bombshell" report....
In a report to a medical journey, he writes that, in the end, Covid19 will not be worse than a bad flu. Please note that he is now addressing other medical experts, not the masses of people (the masses don't read medical journals). Here is the link....
https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/
Then, just a few days later, he is back on prime time TV, telling the masses that millions will be infected, and 100-200,000 will die in the US. Here is a link....
.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8165019/Fauci-says-coronavirus-deaths-US-100-000.html
So.... I am asking myself, how can an expert tell his professional colleagues one story, and the People another? Who has to gain from scaring the People to death, from getting the People used to being prohibited from leaving their home, from seeing the economy being shattered to pieces?
Many of the projections are based on very unreliable models, some that use data that includes infections that happened before draconian measures were taken and project out without dialing in the affects of the extreme measures.......which can't be modeled.
The affects of the extreme shut downs and social distancing are just now showing up in the numbers...........and testing is still catching up........so we have been under counting this month because of not enough testing.
The last 4 days have featured a slower rate of increase each day. If this continues a couple more days, then either the infection rate increase has peaked or the daily infection rate numbers we are getting are crap.
metmike: Based on the actual numbers, which have featured a slow down in the rate of increase the past 4 days, either those numbers are crapola and the rate is not really slowing down
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/
or Fauci's estimate is too high.
But then, maybe he is including next years cornonavirus season and those numbers are cumulative going out into the middle of 2021, when its likely that COVID-19 will be obliterated from the widespread availability of a vaccine.
It's conceivable that we could see such high numbers if it includes both 2020 and 2021 and the CV does not diminish much or comes back strong in November 2020.
thank you, metmike. You are quite correct....all these predictions are derived from computer simulations.... and, as with all computer simulations, you get what you put in...GIGO (which stands for garbage in, garbage out).
You yourself know all to well how computer simulations can mess with people's mind (such as "Miami will be under water in 4 years")
I fully understand that even a highly qualified expert, such as Dr Fauci, could come up with different projections, depending on the data input into the computer model.
And apparently he has done that.....that's why his contribution to that medical journal calls the corona a "bad flu"
Yet... when he is on prime time TV, he never says, it could be this, or it could be that...maybe it's just a bad flu,.. or maybe it kills hundreds of millions
On TV, it's always a very bad scenario, in a speech delivered with such authority that only a fool would doubt his projection.... which makes me think there is a hidden agenda at work.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49720/
By metmike - March 30, 2020, 1:41 a.m.
Thanks Mark!
Dow futures +250 pretty good for bad news...........but wait, my take is good news:
*Tracking the Coronavirus-SUN #'s-4 days in a row with rate slowing
32 responses |
Started by metmike - March 14, 2020, 11:49 a.m.