Saturday Night Weather
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Started by metmike - June 10, 2018, 12:18 a.m.

Sunday Morning: This post was started late Saturday evening. Since then, all the maps included have continued to be updated and the descriptions from late Satuday don't correspond to the newly updated maps.

That is actually the case with most of my weather............. the maps that I provide here are constantly updated.

The next big cluster of storms is erupting and may grow then move southeast tonight:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

 The storms are barely coming on frame with the regional radar loop below here at 11pm.

Central Great Lakes sector loop

By metmike - June 10, 2018, 12:21 a.m.
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Here is where they are mostly likely to threaten with severe weather the next couple of hours: E.Iowa NW.IL


Mesoscale Discussion 690
        < Previous MD      
        MD 690 graphic
   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a complex cluster of storms   moving east-southeast across east-central and northeast Iowa at this   time.  Some acceleration of forward motion has been noted, and   expect this to continue -- with eventual evolution into a single,   bowing MCS expected, as the main band of storms overtakes a leading   cluster of cells just to the southeast of the main band.    While the possibility of marginally severe hail continues with   stronger cores, expect a gradual transition toward locally damaging   winds as the main severe risk, before an expected decrease in severe   potential overnight.

By metmike - June 10, 2018, 12:25 a.m.
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These storms will put down an outflow boundary(s) and rain cooled air that will serve as a focusing agent for tomorrow's generation of new storms. 

The yellow shaded area is the region most likely to see heavy rains tonight.........dowstream for the storms above. Some of the cells could produce isolated 3-5 inches of rain.

Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - June 10, 2018, 12:32 a.m.
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Tomorrow, what boundaries are left from tonights storms will ignite new storms downstream, with a brand new perturbation upstream in the Northern Plains(ridge rider along the periphery of the heat ridge) emerging.

 Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/10/18 - 12Z 06/11/18


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


On Monday, the pattern continues as storms start in the N.Plains vicinity, move southeast around the dome(ring of fire patterrn).

New waves start out in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest and move southeastward. The timing is impossible but locations most likely are shaded in greens and especially yellows but could be just outside those colors.

mcfarm, cutworm and PLL are all in the a zone that could see one of those big mcc(mesoscale convective clusters)  come rolling thru with hefty rains.

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - June 10, 2018, 12:35 a.m.
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Severe Storm Center concurs with this forecast philosphy:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 10/0107Z
Valid: 10/0100Z - 10/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 09/1728Z
Valid: 10/1200Z - 11/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 09/0726Z
Valid: 11/1200Z - 12/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
By mcfarm - June 10, 2018, 7:25 a.m.
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thanks metmike. I admire your energy and enthusiasim on the site. Some of the best weather info I have seen. Not to mention you watching over a bunch of hellions like us.

By cfdr - June 10, 2018, 7:57 a.m.
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Don't know if I've posted this previously, but if so, chalk it up to old age.  (g)

This remind me of when I used to listen to Elwynn Taylor back thirty or so years ago on WOI (AM).  I would be listening for word of the potential drought - getting up close to the radio - straining to hear what he was saying through the static caused by all the thunderstorms.

By silverspiker - June 10, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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By mcfarm - June 10, 2018, 11:31 a.m.
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cfdr...that is hilarious

By metmike - June 10, 2018, 4:30 p.m.
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You're very welcome mcfarm,

Hilarous cdfr!