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Started by GunterK - June 7, 2018, 7:46 p.m.

When you look a a crude oil chart, you will see that a significant bottom takes place, every two months. This bottom, so far, has been about 1 week after the first of the month. The last one was 2 moths ago. We are at this junction right now. Is this the bottom? Time will tell.

PS.. I am not making a trading recommendation. Trade at your own risk.

Re: Crude
By Richard - June 7, 2018, 8:07 p.m.
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I am not sure yet, but I covered my aug69 call short when we broke $66 and I am glad I did. One thing that is strange, my dec2020 futures contract that I was trading, is one full dollar higher then when I got out, but spot is $1.25 lower.

Re: Re: Crude
By Richard - June 8, 2018, 6:08 a.m.
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I should not have covered my call last night. The low is not in and I need to be able to deal with these bear rallies in crude much better. Clearly this is all a work in progress.

By Jim_M - June 8, 2018, 11:01 a.m.
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The more and more I trade, the more I expand my time line.  It's so hard not to react on a day to day basis to market fluctuations as money is made and lost.  But when I look over the longer term, it I had just stayed with my thoughts and stuck with a long daily moving average, I would have made infinitely more money.  

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Jim says:

"The more and more I trade, the more I expand my time line"

Yes, it gives you a much different perspective.

Crude 3 month chart


Crude 1 year chart below


Crude 5 year chart below


Crude 10 year chart below



Wow! Each chart tells you something much different about crude oil.......or at least provides more(wider) perspective

By TimNew - June 8, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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I guess it depends on your style.  From what I read,  there are some who are happy with scalping a few points here and there while day trading.

I've found I am not smart enough to do that.  I go with long term or not at all.  In stocks,  that may mean decades.  In energies,  rarely less than 2-3 weeks.

By Jim_M - June 8, 2018, 12:54 p.m.
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I don't think being smart has anything to do with being smart.  More luck than anything.  

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:37 a.m.
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Crude bouncing a bit today.


Crude Oil Prices - Weekly Outlook: June 11 - 15

By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:43 a.m.
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Weekly Rotary Rig Count:


North American Rig Count
 Percent Change 

 06/08/2018  06/01/2018  06/09/2017  Weekly  Annual  Weekly  Annual
Total U.S.  1,062  1,060  927  2  135  0.2%  14.6%
Offshore  20  19  22  1  (2)  5.3%  -9.1%
Land  1,042  1,041  905  1  137  0.1%  15.1%
Inland Waters  3  2  3  1  0  50.0%  0.0%
Oil  862  861  741  1  121  0.1%  16.3%
Percent  81.2%  81.2%  79.9%  -0.1%  1.2%  

Gas  198  197  185  1  13  0.5%  7.0%
Percent  18.6%  18.6%  20.0%  0.1%  -1.3%  

Directional  67  65  66  2  1  3.1%  1.5%
Horizontal  934  929  780  5  154  0.5%  19.7%
Vertical  61  66  81  -5  -20  -7.6%  -24.7%
Gulf of Mexico  19  18  21  1  -2  5.6%  -9.5%
Gulf Oil  16  15  19  1  -3  6.7%  -15.8%
Percent  84.2%  83.3%  90.5%  0.9%  -6.3%  

Gulf Gas  3  3  2  0  1  0.0%  50.0%
Percent  15.8%  16.7%  9.5%  -0.9%  6.3% 
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Crude up a bit early today. I noticed gasoline prices here in sw Indiana have dropped around 15c recently.

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:37 p.m.
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Oil prices turn positive as U.S. crude inventories fall

NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher onWednesday, turning positive after U.S. government data showed abigger weekly draw than expected in domestic crude inventoriesalong with unexpected declines in gasoline and distillatestocks. 


Earlier in the session, Brent and U.S. crude had retreatedon concerns about rising production in the United States andexpectations that OPEC and other producers could relax voluntaryoutput cuts.



U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected last week, whilegasoline and distillate inventories dropped, the EnergyInformation Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 8,exceeding analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.7 millionbarrels. EIA/S U.S. estimated gasoline demand hit a record highof 9.88 million bpd in the week, the data said.


"The demand metrics here are amazing for crude oil andgasoline," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in NewYork. "Put the exports of crude on top of that, and it's just areally bullish report."

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:45 p.m.
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Crude: Spare production capacity going to all-time lows

Daily Energy Market Analysis

                      By Phil Flynn
                                June 13, 2018

While the markets await the outcome from the Fed meeting and oil traders fret about whether OPEC and non-OPEC might raise production, as well as the weekly supply report, the biggest threat to the price of crude oiland the global economy may be the lack of spare oil production capacity. While the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released reports that show they are confused about the outlook for demand, the truth is that OPEC and Non-OPEC decided to raise oil output, and the amount of oil that the world can bring on quickly will be almost non-existent.

Reuters reports that global spare oil production capacity could fall from more than 3% of global demand now to about 2%, its lowest since at least 1984, if OPEC, Russia and other producers decide to increase output when they meet on June 22-23. Some analysts say spare capacity could even fall below 2%, after years of low oil prices drove down investments in new production across the industry to a historic low. These numbers are very much in line with what we are looking at and it is a situation that we have warned was going to develop for some time.

Re: Crude
By patrick - June 13, 2018, 2:01 p.m.
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Today's flat EIA report has some weird rounding in production & imports

There's a footnote:

Notice: As explained during EIA’s Webinar held on January 29, 2018, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) with data for the week ending June, 1, 2018, will begin reporting weekly U.S. crude oil production estimates rounded to the nearest 100,000 barrels at both the U.S. and lower 48 state levels. EIA will continue to show unrounded estimates for production from the state of Alaska.

Crude Oil Production Re-benchmarking Notice: The weekly estimates of domestic crude oil production are reviewed monthly when the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is released to identify differences with recent trends in survey-based domestic production reported in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) and other current data. If a large difference between the two series is observed, the weekly production estimate may be re-benchmarked on weeks when the STEO is released. This week’s domestic crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that raised estimated volumes by 55,000 barrels per day, which is about 0.5% of this week’s estimated production total.

Re: Re: Crude
By metmike - June 14, 2018, 10:23 a.m.
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Thanks Patrick!

Tech analysis for crude/ng:

By metmike - June 14, 2018, noon
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Geopolitics Faded Out, Oil Fundamentals Are Back In The Forefront; But The June 22 OPEC Meeting Could Throw A Curve Ball

The information below does not represent my view........just passing it along from the source.


The geopolitics versus fundamentals conundrum was resolved after oil prices collapsed from $72.80 on May 21 to $64.28 on June 5. That eliminated the Middle East risk premium from prices.

The lower oil price again opens to new Middle East political machinations, but nothing threatening is on the horizon, except for a quicker-than-expected imposition of embargo on Iran's oil exports.

Fundamentals therefore will rule over the medium-term - we see possibility of short-term oil weakness but on balance, oil prices should rise into late summer on favorable oil consumption trends.

By metmike - June 15, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Crude and products selling off hard here today:

1 week chart below

By Richard - June 15, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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I always thought and will say it again. We will see 60 before 70 in WTIC.