I thought I’d start today’s wx thread with this because it is such an anomalously amplified and stable pattern. The GEFS has maintained its MJO 4/5 amplitude peak prediction at ~3 while the EPS has increased theirs from 2.5 yesterday to nearly 3 today. A peak of 3.0 would make it the 4th highest amp of 4/5 in winter on record (back to 1975). The 2 models are predicting a duration in 4/5 of 10-12 days ending ~1/17. Combine this MJO with a strong -PNA/+AO, a mainly +NAO, and a modest -AAM that is restarting today as well as a mainly +EPO and you have all of the makings for a strong torch to dominate the next 2 weeks in the SE 1/3 of the US. I expect to see several days in the SE, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley areas with anomalies of +15+ within a period having most days AN. The entire 10-12 days will probably average close to 10+ AN in the SE US and nearby, which would be close to norms for mid March!
Thanks Larry!
I'm actually bullish here but will exit if 12z models are not colder in week 2.
More comments shortly.
Wonderful analysis!
It still looks to get colder late week 2 but very mild before then.
We tested the previous life of contact lows at the highs today but the temps are too warm for us to break out to the upside of that..............for now.
I was stopped out from the earlier longs for a small +but still view this as a potential buying set up.
Sorry for the late start/responses. Stayed up much of the night and also had the internet down and had to tether off my phone to trade for a short while.
I agree with your analysis Larry but am looking at it from the vantage point of trading the pattern change to colder and the market reversing higher when enough evidence of that shows up..........whenever it comes causes this.
It looked like we were close after the 6z GFS ensemble came out colder in week 2 and took us off the spike lows.
I just think that this massive high in the Northeast Pacific and downstream mid latitude trough (even though the trough defines a powerful -PNA and can't stay there like that if we are ever going to have sustained cold in the Southeast 1/3rd) is also inducing cross polar flow and a frigid air dump into Canada that often is underappreciated by models. in its ability to drop southeast.
The bitter cold will be there within striking distance. A slight southeast shift in the positioning of features in a week(on a global scale) and the E. Midwest goes from +30 vs average to -10 vs average on some days compared to what we have now.