Just 8 Days until Christmas! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
New: Updated Monday PM European 768 hour forecast at the bottom! Frigid end to 2019 and start to 2020.......take that with a grain of salt.
However, before that we are looking at a Christmas that may feature near record warmth in the Midwest to Ohio Valley and regions close by(50/60's)
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Moderating.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Warming to much above average in the Plains/Midwest.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
High pressure with backside flow warming things up but staying mostly dry.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Mostly dry in the Midwest.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
December 12: DROUGHT the last 2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas and S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's going dormant right now.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Staring with last week below:
Friday: Another tad stronger with the far Southeast upper level ridge that will modulate the southern stream..........but the northern stream is also stronger on some solutions with cold aimed at the Upper Midwest. Small changes in the solutions will result in huge temp forecast changes for some locations.
Monday: Mostly zonal, mild flow on the average. Some upper ridging very far southeast and troughing midsection. ABOVE precip and temps.
Thursday: Very mild, zonal west to east flow at 2 weeks......on this model.
Friday: Still mostly zonal but cold from Canada likely to get south of the border because of the weak ridging west and troughing in the East. Great uncertainty.
Saturday: Similar to Friday but slightly colder.
Monday: Deep Polar Vortex in Canada with major cold there and within striking distance of the US. How much will makes it south?
Tuesday: Growing potential for polar vortex to drop south in Canada but tremendous disagreement. Ridge/west, trough downstream couplet will determine how far south the frigid air gets and where it crosses the border into the US.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 01, 2020 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Discussions, starting with the oldest.
Wednesday: AO drops into negative territory in week 2. NAO also falling and around 0. PNA a tad negative. Nothing huge but slightly colder than the last few days for these indices.
Thursday: AO continues to drop significantly and is pretty negative by the end of 2 weeks on some members..........increasing cold risks. NAO drops too down to a tad below 0. PNA around 0.
Friday: AO is dropping even more today with NAO going below 0. This really increases cold risks but there is a wide spread and much uncertainty. PNA a tad negative.
Saturday: AO still drops solidly negative but a wide spread with some members near zero and others extremely negative. NAO is also negative. This is favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to the middle latitudes. PNA near 0.
Monday: Negative AO is still favorable for cold to drop from high latitudes to the middle latitudes late in week 2. Slightly negative NAO could help a bit too. PNA drifts to negative territory.
Tuesday: AO solidly negative and favorable for cold to drop south thru Canada and cross the US border in week 2. NAO drifting to negative also a bit constructive for cold in the northern tier. PNA slightly negative, moving towards zero.......nothing there.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly- 768 hour- outlook, from Monday PM, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with December 27th and going out to January 16th...... every 24 hours.
From the end of December to mid January, bone chilling cold dominates from the Northeast Rockies to N.Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes to the Northeast. The southern edge of that frigid weather moderate a great deal as hit pushes south of the Ohio River.
Along and north of the Ohio would be very cold though.........if this low skill forecast model were to verify.........so take these maps with a grain of salt because they will likely look different when this product is updated again in 3 days.
Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly- 768 hour- outlook, from Monday PM, 850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with December 27th and going out to January 16th...... every 24 hours.
From the end of December to mid January, bone chilling cold dominates from the Northeast Rockies to N.Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes to the Northeast. The southern edge of that frigid weather moderate a great deal as hit pushes south of the Ohio River.
Along and north of the Ohio would be very cold though.........if this low skill forecast model were to verify.........so take these maps with a grain of salt because they will likely look different when this product is updated again in 3 days.
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Anyone talking about this Subtropical Storm that is forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday? Next name is Tanya if it organizes significantly enough.