SA weather update
19 responses | 0 likes
Started by tjc - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:33 a.m.


Rumor SA rains are not developing?

Your research?

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
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I would appreciate it if you would provide information and sources and not tell us

"Rumor SA rains are not developing?"

Asking me for a forecast is great but it turns me off when people spread rumors. 

By bear - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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nice storm here in the tucson area yesterday, and today.  a nice steady, light rain. gray sky.  perfect temps.  

maybe the bees will keep making a little honey into fall.  

By tjc - Sept. 25, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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I am terribly sorry.  Poor word choice.

There is a suggestion in the coffeeforum that rains are not developing per seasonal.

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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No problem tjc,

I realize that you didn't mean anything by it but we are living in a world of fake news and manufactured/made up/biased facts(your stuff is ALWAYS authentic) and we don't need to make it any worse here.

It's true that there hasn't been much rain there yet but I think it's not much different than the last few models runs, which don't get much going until later today.

Thanks to your clarification, that is actually not what you were referring to, so now that you clarified, I can address the right time frame........which is the extended.

Yes, I agree with that statement and its the reason that I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was looking at buying coffee this week.

It's still early in the rainy season though.  If the regular rains don't start until late October, the coffee crop will do just great.

But no rains for more than 2 weeks after this one will be bad for this first flowering, triggered by these rains, which may abort.

By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 12:22 p.m.
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To elaborate more, here is what I have on the coffee thread. Bottom line is that the market will now be trading rains in the extended, until there is enough of it to get several good flowering that take and ensure we have plentiful cherries. 

                By metmike - Sept. 16, 2019, 1:37 p.m.            


"Fundamentally speaking Somar Meteorologia on Monday said that most arabica-coffee crops in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, the biggest arabica coffee growing region in Brazil, have not had significant rain in 3 months"

It almost never rains there in June/July/August and even September rains are unusual. This is completely normal weather for their "monsoon".

"The rainy season starts in October, which triggers the initial flowering(s). Only if no rains are seen in outlooks that go into a good part of October would the dry weather be seen as bullish. There is rain in the forecast right now for week 2 and this is still late September. 

The months when they get blockbuster rains are Nov/Dec/Jan. Rains taper off after that, then they have the dry season again May-September. "

Climate in Ipatinga (Minas Gerais)

Average monthly precipitation over the year (rainfall, snow)


                        This is the mean monthly precipitation, including rain, snow, hail etc.                                                    Show in Inches »                                            

                                                                                        Average precipitation (rain/snow) in Gobernador Vala, Brazil   Copyright © 2019                                                


Population (2015)
MinasGerais Municip Ipatinga.svg
Country Brazil
StateBandeira de Minas Gerais.svgMinas Gerais
FoundedApril 29, 1964
 • MayorNardyello Rocha (MDB)
 • Total165.509 km2 (63.903 sq mi)
 • Total257.315
 • Density1.440/km2 (3.73/sq mi)
Time zoneUTC-3
Postal Code35160-000
HDI (2000)0,806  – high
By metmike - Sept. 25, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 26, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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I really don't know if more or less rain is falling than expected because I don't have access to accurate, live radar images.

Maybe close to expected if I had to guess.

By metmike - Sept. 26, 2019, 12:33 p.m.
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The next big event after this is going to be awhile.........more than a week and mainly the southern sections, so it could be supportive if those rains don't keep moving north.

There are signs of an upper level ridge holding back the rainy season in the extended.

If  that ridge builds more, it could turn bullish.

By tjc - Sept. 26, 2019, 1:53 p.m.
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TY for the update.  KC paused today.  

Exceeding 105 should activate a lot of buying in KCZ

By metmike - Sept. 26, 2019, 4:35 p.m.
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Thanks tjc!

From the looks of it, the Eastern half of coffee land is getting a big rain, maybe not as much farther west.

Once this rain is over, tomorrow, then we will be dry for quite awhile. Could be another 2 weeks before the next rain..........if then.

So there will be several ways to look at it tomorrow.

1. These rains will be over and even if they are bountiful, any bearishness related to them will be dialed in. In fact, I would say they were dialed in numerous days ago, when we plunged from the highs last week on the bearish/wetter forecasts. 

2. It's still just late Sept and the forecast only goes out to Oct. 11th. The rainy season does not need to really kick in until late Oct and we can still have a great crop.  The market is already trading rains but the absence of rain will only really start to hurt the new crop prospects if we have forecasts that take us into late Oct, with no rain. Reality vs perception here. Perception is what drives market mentality and trading. Also, if maps at the end of 2 weeks look bullish/blocking high, the market will extrapolate and add more time to that, adding to the bullishness.

3. No rains for at least 10 days, possibly longer means that flowering triggered by these rains could be aborted(especially with heat).

4.  Here is something else that happens when you have an early rain like this...........then no rain for weeks. The cherries that do form because of this flowering which take/stay will be weeks ahead on maturity than those that form on future flowerings. I don't know that this effects production that much but its a bigger challenge at harvest time when you have to pick the mature cherries, some that are ready more than a month before the rest.........if rains don't return for, let's say 3 or 4 weeks.  

I'm sure that growers would love for the rainy season to start a bit later than this, then feature regular rains so that the time differential between the first and last flowerings  is not that spread out. 

I'll have to learn more about harvesting and share it but thought this video was interesting:

How to Harvest Coffee Beans

5. The last model runs don't have more rains after this one going out 2 weeks. This means the weather forecast is bullish but again, its still early. Also, the European model  30 day outlook will be out later today. If forecasts for week 3 bring rains, then this will suppress the bullishness.

6. I will need to catch up on coffee fundamentals but apparently they are bearish. There is much more that can affect the prices than just the weather here. However, every day that goes by in October that does not bring rains closer will increase the bullishness of the weather forecast(and the weather premium will not go up by a measured amount every day, it will go up with gyrating spikes). If we would go out another 2 weeks from today's forecast,  without another good rain in the forecast, then weather WILL be the #1 item traded every day. 

By metmike - Sept. 26, 2019, 7:44 p.m.
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The 768 hour European model was pretty bullish for coffee country weather going out the next month. 

By metmike - Sept. 27, 2019, 1:11 p.m.
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We had some early strength in coffee, probably from the updated, bullish Euro monthly forecast that comes out Mon and Tue late afternoon.

Still some lingering rains from this system into early next week.....light and scattered. Then dry for 10+ days.

Then..........? Maybe the next system.

The next system should be able to make it into coffee land if we projected the maps out just beyond 2 weeks.........which would still just be mid October and be just great for the coffee crop. 

There is no blocking upper level high but there is the potential for a transitory upper level high to build and become more of a blocking feature into week 3...............potential that is only fullfilled if the models change how they handle the week 2 features. 

By cutworm - Sept. 27, 2019, 9:53 p.m.
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Eric Snodgrass has a nice discussion of the affects of the MJO on the Brazil weather. Starts about 17 min in.

By metmike - Sept. 29, 2019, 2:29 a.m.
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Thanks very much for that always wonderful video!!

By Jim_M - Sept. 30, 2019, 11:40 a.m.
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Great information everyone!  

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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2018/19 Marks Second Consecutive Year of Surplus

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates world coffee production in coffee year 2018/19 to be 3.7 per cent higher than in the previous year at 168.87 million 60-kilogram bags. However, at 164.82 million bags, world consumption for coffee year 2018/19 is estimated to have only grown 2.1 per cent.

This means coffee supply has exceeded demand by 4.05 million bags.

Output rose in all regions except for Mexico and Central America, where the harvest declined by 0.8 per cent to 21.47 million bags. Nearly half of the world’s coffee was produced in South America, where production is estimated 4.8 per cent higher at 80.95 million bags in coffee year 2018/19. Production grew by 4.6 per cent in Asia and Oceania to 48.46 million bags, while output in Africa rose by 1.9 per cent to 17.99 million bags.

Output of Arabica has increased 1.8 per cent to 102.68 million bags and Robusta grew 6.7 per cent to 66.04 million bags. The larger supply in coffee year 2018/19 is reflected in increased shipments in the first eleven months of the coffee year, during which global exports increased by 9.2 per cent to 120.28 million bags, surpassing the total volume shipped in 2017/18.

This ICO says this surplus is a major factor in the low prices this season, with the ICO composite indicator only averaging 100.47 US cents per pound in coffee year 2018/19.

The ICO composite indicator fell to 97.74 US cents per pound in September 2019, increasing 1.7 per cent from August. It reached its lowest point of 94.01 US cents per pound in the month on 5 September. It peaked at 100.29 US cents per pound on 16 September, which is the only day that the indicator exceeded 100 US cents per pound in the month.

Prices for the Arabica group indicators rose in September 2019, while the Robusta indicator fell to its lowest monthly average since April 2010, decreasing to 70.64 US cents per pound in September 2019.

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2019, 12:22 p.m.
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Still looks like a rain maker in the middle of next week(best rains southeast sections of Minas Gerais-#1 producer)........dry before then followed by dry after that with a big of heat.

Should that continue during the 2nd half of October, it would be bullish coffee weather!

I'm thinking that coffee may be getting ready to respond positively to that potentially bullish forecast, despite very negative fundamentals. 

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2019, 12:52 p.m.
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Olam Coffee Chief Calls for Coffee Price Stabilization Fund

“On climate change, it is prescient that this announcement coincides with UN Climate Week because this worries me greatly — what’s around the corner?,” Verma stated. “We are seeing how more extreme weather patterns can alter the flowering and fruiting cycles in producing countries as well an increase in pests and diseases, such as [leaf] rust… Without the means to invest in more resilient hybrids and other adaptation methods for the future, farmers cannot be blamed if they give up.”

metmike: Just one huge problem with that. The reason that coffee prices are so cheap is because the complete opposite of the paragraph above is happening as the climate optimum for life on this greening planet continues. As a result, production is exceeding demand. 

The data on coffee and other crops with regards to yields and production is the data.......not an opinion and not words and not politics. 

If they want higher prices from the effects of weather/climate we can:

1. Go back to the old climate of 100 years ago that produced much more adversity for life and crops.

2. Drop beneficial CO2 levels

3. Have global cooling instead of slight beneficial warming. 

By metmike - Oct. 4, 2019, 12:45 a.m.
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Coffee weather continues to become more bullish.

1 wimpy rain maker mid/late next week. Dry before then, dry after that thru 2 weeks.

If we go thru week 3 with it continuing dry, coffee could have a strong rally.