"Meanwhile, a new tropical weather system is brewing, and this one may actually hit Alabama."
metmike: These news organizations comments on this next storm are proving my entire point from last week, that Dorian posed a legit threat to Alabama for numerous days(before Trumps tweet).
This new storm has not even formed and is, what I would consider a much lower threat to Alabama( lower than Dorian based on potential impact for sure) when it was in same place based on all the guidance right now..............but the comments are suggesting that this one is going to be an actual threat vs Dorian.
Dorian was already a major hurricane, with record winds for that part of the Atlantic with MORE ensembles/solutions taking it into Alabama than this current one for on several model runs. The current disturbance that has no guidance with it being a major hurricane.
The potential impact from intensity and legit threat from Dorian's path was easily more than 10 times higher than what the current threat is from Humberto-if it gets to 39 mph (when Dorian was in a similar location at 150 mph).
Humberto has a 70% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days, 39 mph+. It could strengthen more than that of course and it IS a legit threat to Alabama.
But it's ok for news sources today to tell us that this yet to form system is a threat to Alabama and still continue to insist that the 10 times higher threat of major hurricane Dorian at a similar stage "was never a threat to Alabama"
Crazy politics. I actually had put this one to rest until the media started telling us that a yet to form tropical storm really is a threat to Alabama. I totally buy that one. 100% but if that's the case, you can't be a hypocrite and say that Dorian NEVER was.
Just to be clear again on my point. Trump messed up royal with his wrong hurricane forecast, at least 2 full days after we were extremely confident that Dorian was no longer a threat to Alabama.
But Dorian WAS a MAJOR threat to Alabama, for numerous days prior to that...........and in fact, we are in the exact same place of the discovery process with potential Humerto right now as we were with major hurricane Dorian when it threatened Alabama.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38739/
There are some things that can be learned from this. Grant mentioned what he thinks the president should have learned(I agree).
I think that people viewing these posts, can also understand better, the process that we use in tracking storms like this(exclusively from model data), many days before they become hurricanes sometimes and many days beyond the official 5 day forecast of the Hurricane Center after they become major hurricanes.
I believe that the NHC will soon extend their official 5 day cones out to 7 days because the forecasts are much better than 20 years ago. Had that been the case last week, Alabama would have been solidly inside the cone for the late periods for awhlle.
I don't say that to justify anything other than us meteorologists, the markets and most others take day 7 pretty dang serious with major hurricane threats like Dorian. We understand the models and their flaws and yes, after a few days, the margin of error can be enormous, so I understand the current limitation to 5 days.
With the skill improving, it seems inevitable for them to extend it so the public has additional time to prepare.
Maybe they can call it an experimental product and emphasize that skill is very low on days 6-7. A potential negative is that if its wrong more than 50% of the time at that time frame, people might not believe the higher confidence sooner time frame cones.
To me, if I was John Q. Public, living in a place that gets hit with hurricanes, if I knew the government had products which could provide a forecast cone for days 6-7, I would want to see the 5 day cone extended as far out as possible.
If you are planning a trip to fly down to Florida, for instance and need to book a flight but want to AVOID a time frame because of any hurricane threats and the current threat is days 6-7, you and everybody in the state of Florida has to wait a couple of days until day 5 moves forward to see what your threat is.
I would be interested in others thoughts, especially our hurricane specialists, Grant and Larry.