Weather Sunday
18 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:12 p.m.

Happy 34th Anniversary + 8 days to my wonderful wife(who says that you can't celebrate it every day!   Or keep celebrating the Integral Heart Family's record breaking fund raising last month for their wonderful children:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.

Rains in the dry areas have been disappointing, partly because of the dry soils. Still some chances in the eastern belt today but overall this event will be seen as a dud for over half of the areas that need rain the most.

 Crop ratings stayed the same for corn and beans last week but should drop  a bit tomorrow with moderate confidence.

Temperatures continue to look cooler, especially compared to how hot they looked in the middle of last week. This is bearish natural gas. EIA report was a bullish shocker on Thursday though which caused a knee jerk spike higher on Thursday.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Highs today and tomorrow.

   Widespread heat!


By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:16 p.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:

Heat shifts west, cooling close to average Midwest/East.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:18 p.m.
Like Reply

We have passed the peak in Summer temperatures based on climatological/historical averages by a month now.

The heat during this period will be shifting westward.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Pretty strong cold front drops south with cooler and drier air to south of the Ohio River(still hot in the deep south). Front comes back as a warm front next weekend with rain chances going up again.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:22 p.m.
Like Reply

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Not as much rain as forecast last week for this period but some dry spots will get lucky.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:23 p.m.
Like Reply

Risk of excessive rains.

 Isolated heavy rain possible locally but not much threat.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk

Slight risk in a few locations the next few days.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:26 p.m.
Like Reply

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:28 p.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points

Humid in the Southern Midwest to the Northeast.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:29 p.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

A big chunk of the central and eastern Cornbelt has dried out.

 Some of those locations will miss out on most of these rains.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:29 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week. Note another increase in yellow, slight drought across much of the central and eastern Cornbelt on the latest map in addition, a darker shade in IA/IL telling us the drought severity increased too.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).



Drought Monitor for conus


Drought Monitor for conus




By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:37 p.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Saturday: 12z run. Same as yesterday. Heat ridge seems to be slowly shifting south, along with the jet stream doing the same at the end of week 2(week 2 will be hot though, especially in the south).

Sunday: 12z run. Some solutions are highly amplified with opposite scenarios that cancel each other out. The mean, features a slow suppression of pretty strong jet stream farther south, along with the heat ridge going south too. 

Monday: 12z run. Ridging in the south is stronger today vs yesterday at the end of 2 weeks. However, models have a lot of rain in much of the Midwest from an active jet stream around the heat ridge in the south.

Tuesday: Upper level ridge slightly stronger/farther north on the mean but the individual solutions differ greatly on location. Strong jet stream around the heat ridge with lots of rain.

Wednesday: This particular batch of solutions is farther south with the upper level ridge and jet stream compared to the end of 2 weeks(The European model overnight was MUCH hotter though). Regardless, all the models agree on there being  a very wet pattern around the periphery of the ridge associated with the active jet stream in the Midwest.

Thursday: A bit farther north with the heat ridge and hotter.

Friday: Farther south with the heat ridge today, as well as the strong zonal jet stream north of that, along the northern tier.

Saturday: Strong, zonal  Jet stream continues to shift south, suppressing the heat ridge even farther south.............but that's on the mean. The solutions that go into this are completely different but the opposite patterns average out to this mean. 

Sunday: 12z run. Interesting changes happening at the end of 2 weeks. Buckling jet stream potential. The 0z run suppressed the jet stream farther south, with the heat ridge pushed in that direction.........a recent trend. This last run, however, buckles the jet stream out West, into a deep trough on several solutions, which amplifies an upper level ridge in the East......much warmer. Other models have something closer to the opposite of this, so this run of the Canadian ensemble model will be taken with a grain of salt.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 02, 2019 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:41 p.m.
Like Reply

0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Friday: Huge heat ridge in the US, especially south with very Powerful upper level low/trough in Canada.  

Saturday: Where will the huge heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?  Strong jet stream implied with potential anomalous flow and extreme temps/features in North America.

Sunday: Heat ridge could be anywhere at the end of 2 weeks based on this model.

Monday: This model is MUCH more impressive with the heat ridge in the East today.

Tuesday: Heat ridge over much of the country.

Wednesday: Heat ridge over the southern half of the country. Strong jet stream to the north, especially along the Canadian border.

Thursday: Same as Wednesday.

Friday: Huge change. Strong jet stream along the border is shown "buckling" into a trough in the Northcentral US area.  Heat ridge suppressed, almost out of the picture.

Saturday: Some solutions continue to buckle the strong jet stream, digging it south of the Great Lakes, carving out a deep trough. Some less amplified and a few disagree completely. 

Sunday: One position for buckling jet stream created trough is around the Great Lakes to maybe the Hudson Bay but huge uncertainty for this period.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:45 p.m.
Like Reply

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Saturday: No powerful anomalies, partly because this is an average and some opposite extremes on different solutions cancel each other out, giving the false impression of docile, average weather over areas that will probably be fairly extreme. 

Sunday: There are changes vs yesterday. New, positive anomaly in Northeast Canada and weaker anomalies in the US based on some solutions having a nice couplet/connection, reconnecting to cooler air from Canada flowing south. 

Monday: Huge changes from Sunday. The positive anomaly is now in S/SE Canada, extending south from this model. Instead of this being cool from yesterday, the same location would have heat.

Tuesday: Very similar to Monday/yesterday.

Wednesday: Modest positive anomaly Hudson Bay to Great Lakes and off the Pac NW Coast.

Thursday: Positive anomaly off the Pacific NW Coast and in Northeast Canada.

Friday: Huge change. Positive anomaly still around Pacific Northwest but new negative anomaly Great Lakes...........much cooler under this solution!

Saturday: Center for the positive anomaly is now in SW Canada to just off the coast to the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream negative anomaly centered in the Great Lakes. This is usually a pretty good couplet for cool temperatures in the Midwest. 

Sunday: Weaker positive anomaly off the West Coast of North America, weak negative anomaly around the Midwest.  Not a strong signal for heat but neither is it especially cool.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:48 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Saturday: AO is negative. NAO is negative and increasing a bit but now STAYS negative thru the end of 2 weeks, which is not as warm as the previous few days for that period. PNA is positive and dropping a bit. 

Sunday: Potentially cooler implications for the end of the month. AO is still negative but the NAO stays negative now and at the end of 2 weeks, some solutions are decreasing the NAO value again. PNA stays a bit positive. 

Monday: Big changes again, this time, possibly hotter.  NAO increases to near 0 at the end of week 2 with a huge spread above and below(between models) indicating uncertainty.  PNA goes from very positive, dropping to near 0........more favorable for heat in the eastern part of the country than yesterday.

Tuesday: AO a bit negative. NAO increases from negative to near zero with less spread than yesterday. PNA drops from positive to near zero. Indices near zero are not that powerful but warmth is favored.

Wednesday: AO negative. NAO increases to zero, then a big spread at the end of 2 weeks with slight lower bias. PNA drops towards 0 from being positive.

Thursday: AO negative. NAO increases to above zero now(with heat and upper ridging East) but then drops down a bit at the end of 2 weeks. PNA falls late in week 2.

Friday: AO a tad negative. NAO increases to 0 but at the end, big increase in spread with several plunging lower with possible pattern change to cooler.........much uncertainty. PNA drops from being positive.

Saturday: AO still negative. NAO is the big change. It stays negative and starts dropping again late week 2............increasing the chance for cooler temps.  PNA drops from positive to negative.

Sunday: AO and NAO close to or just below 0. PNA drops to near 0. No help on providing powerful clues.

By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:50 p.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 

Last Friday: Lots of heat. Dry under the heat ridge, wet around, over the top of and around its periphery.

Saturday: Should be hot and pretty dry in a large area. Band of higher precip in there with uncertainty.

Sunday: Still lots of heat with high confidence. A large dry area, with a zone of green, probably favoring the Upper Midwest.

Monday: Still lots of heat but with more rain.

Tuesday: Very warm/hot and wet again.

Wednesday: Very warm/hot and wet again!!

Thursday: Very Warm/Hot and wet again!

Friday: Much cooler in a large area. Probably still wet.

Saturday: Continued cooler and probably still pretty wet.

Sunday:  Probably wet with near normal to cool temps Midwest, hot West.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:50 p.m.
Like Reply

September Outlook:

OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: August 15, 2019
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 18, 2019, 1:51 p.m.
Like Reply

Weeks 3 and 4.........low skill outlook for the first half of September:


Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 31 Aug 2019 to 13 Sep 2019
Updated: 16 Aug 2019

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability