Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:23 a.m.

Happy 34th Anniversary + 5 days to my wonderful wife(who says that you can't celebrate it every day!   Or keep celebrating the Integral Heart Family's record breaking fund raising last month for their wonderful children:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.

 We continue to keep rains in the forecast that was previously dry last week..............this is BEARISH, especially since amounts have been increasing and getting closer.
 Crop ratings stayed the same for corn and beans last week.

The added heat in the forecast is clearly bullish for natural gas. The EIA report was a bullish shocker though which is adding to this.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

   Hot South!

Cool Northern USA.


By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Hot to very warm most places!!!

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below

Mostly  heat/reds.

We have passed the peak in Summer temperatures based on climatological/historical averages.

But there will be plenty of heat left this Summer, including in todays week 2 forecast.

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:26 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Heat builds from south to north. Front in the Midwest is the focus for increasing rains.

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:29 a.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.

 Set up for some  heavy rains in s few locations.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:30 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk

Plains today, then expanding eastward on Friday.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:32 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:34 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

A bit less humid in the Midwest to the Northeast.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:35 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

A big chunk of the central and eastern Cornbelt has dried out.

Recent rains hit some spots but missed many others. Big rains coming up.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
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Currently, there is now some drought in the  main Cornbelt/Midwest. There is still drought in the Southeast. 

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week. Note another increase in yellow, slight drought across much of the central and eastern Cornbelt on the latest map in addition, a darker shade in IA/IL telling us the drought severity increased too.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).



Drought Monitor for conus


Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Sunday: Using 12z run today. Not as impressive as Saturday's 12z run the heat ridge but the pattern is pretty clearly defined. A huge heat ridge in the south with a strong, active  jet stream tracking zonally over the top of the heat ridge across the country with plenty of storm making systems along the southern edge of that jet stream. How far north or south these features will be is uncertain. Good chance the heat ridge will build north late in week 2.

Monday: A ton of disagreement towards the end of week 2 on the location of the main features, especially the heat ridge/dome, which will be impressive. Favored location is maintaining in the south but there's a good chance for it to be pumped to the East Coast if the strong jet stream coming over the top of it zonally, buckels to the west or if the upper level trough just off the West Coast moves east.

Tuesday: Heat ridge does in fact get pumped east on the majority of the solutions. Deep trough off the West Coast moves inland  bit, helping that to happen. This shifts the heat eastward. Heavy rains between the trough and heat ridge.

Wednesday: Heat ridge decidedly farther east again, in fact, centered in the the far W.Atlantic off the Southeast Coast. Trough West still and active jet along the northern border. Additionally some potential northern stream flow from Canada and a ridge in N.Alaska with downstream trough in Central Canada. 

Thursday: 12z run(12 hours later than usual but just in). Much less bullish and much farther south with the head ridge at the end of week 2 on this model and run. Jet stream much farther south as well as cooler air and heat displaced farther south........on this run.

Friday: 12z run. Major heat ridge location? for sure across much of the south and strong jet stream to the north.

Saturday: 12z run. Same as yesterday. Heat ridge seems to be slowly shifting south, along with the jet stream doing the same at the end of week 2(week 2 will be hot though, especially in the south).

Sunday: 12z run. Some solutions are highly amplified with opposite scenarios that cancel each other out. The mean, features a slow suppression of pretty strong jet stream farther south, along with the heat ridge going south too. 

Monday: 12z run. Ridging in the south is stronger today vs yesterday at the end of 2 weeks. However, models have a lot of rain in much of the Midwest from an active jet stream around the heat ridge in the south.

Tuesday: Upper level ridge slightly stronger/farther north on the mean but the individual solutions differ greatly on location. Strong jet stream around the heat ridge with lots of rain.

Wednesday: This particular batch of solutions is farther south with the upper level ridge and jet stream compared to the end of 2 weeks(The European model overnight was MUCH hotter though). Regardless, all the models agree on there being  a very wet pattern around the periphery of the ridge associated with the active jet stream in the Midwest.

Thursday: A bit farther north with the heat ridge and hotter.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 30, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last   Thursday: Heat ridge anywhere from the Rockies to points southeast. Troughing along the Canadian border to the Northeast will usher in some cooler air there. Big temperature gradient and heavy rains.

Friday: Heat ridge somewhere from the S.Rockies to the Southeast US.  Active flow over the top?

Saturday: Wide spread in solutions.  12Z update, huge change to heat ridge building farther across the country.

Sunday: Not as bullish as yesterday's 12z run. Huge spread on location of the heat ridge(for sure in the south) and jet stream.

Monday: Still the major disparity in the location of the heat ridge late in week 2  on individual solutions and the location of an upper level trough and jet stream. 1. There will be a big heat ridge. 2. There will be a deep upper level trough to the west of north of it. 3. The upper level trough in the Northeast is weakening.

Tuesday: Still some disagreement on heat ridge but most bring it east and even the heat moves east! Stormy weather on the backside of the heat ridge in front of a deep upper level trough that might be around sw Canada/Pac Northwest.

Wednesday: Heat ridge builds in week 2 but late in the period, potential for northern stream energy to crash south with an upper level ridge in the Gulf of Alaska coupled nicely with an upper level low downstream. In the absence of the northern stream influence(south of it) heat will dominate.

Thursday: Still the 0z, older run for this model. Huge heat ridge but great uncertainty on location.

Friday: Huge heat ridge in the US, especially south with very Powerful upper level low/trough in Canada.  

Saturday: Where will the huge heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?  Strong jet stream implied with potential anomalous flow and extreme temps/features in North America.

Sunday: Heat ridge could be anywhere at the end of 2 weeks based on this model.

Monday: This model is MUCH more impressive with the heat ridge in the East today.

Tuesday: Heat ridge over much of the country.

Wednesday: Heat ridge over the southern half of the country. Strong jet stream to the north, especially along the Canadian border.

Thursday: Same as Wednesday.

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Friday: Full latitude positive anomaly West, all the way to Alaska, coupled nicely with negative anomaly downstream centered in Southeast Canada to Northeast US. Heat West, cool Midwest/East.

Saturday: Anomalies have a bit less magnitude today but are still positive/hot west, negative/cool east.

Sunday: Weak positive west and new positive height anomaly in the deep South. Negative in eastern Canada. Cool in the period before this but things might change late in week 2.

Monday: Trend continues to weaken the positive anomaly in the West and shift it eastward/southeast, along with some of the heat. In combination with the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada weakening, which lessens the amount of cool air in the Midwest/East. 

Tuesday: Center of the positive anomaly has shifted into northwest Canada to Siberia with a much deeper negative anomaly in southeast Canada which is a cooler solution, despite slightly elevated heights in the Plains. The cooler air coming south will set up a boundary that is the focus for increasing week 2 rains.

Wednesday: BIG CHANGE! Now we have modest positive anomalies across most of the USA and a negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This is MUCH warmer than the guidance for some time. The heat will spread east with this solution. 

Thursday: Slight positive anomalies except for weaknesses in the Pac NW and SE Canada, so some cooler air along the border states. 

Friday: Modest, slightly positive anomalies across the US late week 2. Negative anomaly far Eastern Canada might be a source of some cooler air along the northern tier.

Saturday: New negative anomaly center(weak) west of the Hudson Bay in Canada. Modest positive anomalies over much of the US.  Lot's of uncertainty.  12Z update, positive anomaly across the US greatly amplified on this run at the end of 2 weeks. Speculation: A strong jet stream coming zonally underneath the new negative anomaly west of the Hudson Bay has the potential to greatly build a heat ridge to the south of it and cause it to spread across much of the United States, especially the southern half.

Sunday: Still a weak negative anomaly just west of the Hudson Bay in Canada. Positive anomalies growing in the East late in the period.  Pattern change to hotter for the 2nd half of August???

Monday: New positive anomaly in Eastern Canada to the this area will warm up.  Weak Negative anomaly, possibly transient from West of Hudson Bay to N.Rockies.  Looks wet midsection and hotter and more humid eastern half at the end of week 2.

Tuesday: Pattern change to hotter! Positive anomaly in the Northeast has grown today. ...replacing the negative anomaly that has been there for awhile and will last another week.  Some troughing along the West Coast to Central Canada.

Wednesday: Heat ridge builds in week 2 but positive anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska and downstream negative anomaly in south/central Canada will be sending some northern stream energy south of the border. Modest positive anomaly Northeast means the heat has shifted east.

Thursday: Modest positive anomaly in the Northeast may be transitory. Much bigger positive anomaly in the Guof of Alaska with a downstream negative anomaly around the Hudson Bay, linked well to deliver cold fronts south to the West, then Plains, then eastward?

Friday: Positive anomalies East and West with negative anomaly around the Hudson Bay, extending far enough south to potentially impact the Midwest.

Saturday: No powerful anomalies, partly because this is an average and some opposite extremes on different solutions cancel each other out, giving the false impression of docile, average weather over areas that will probably be fairly extreme.

Sunday: There are changes vs yesterday. New, positive anomaly in Northeast Canada and weaker anomalies in the US based on some solutions having a nice couplet/connection, reconnecting to cooler air from Canada flowing south.

Monday: Huge changes from Sunday. The positive anomaly is now in S/SE Canada, extending south from this model. Instead of this being cool from yesterday, the same location would have heat.

Tuesday: Very similar to Monday/yesterday.

Wednesday: Modest positive anomaly Hudson Bay to Great Lakes and off the Pac NW Coast.

Thursday: Positive anomaly off the Pacific NW Coast and in Northeast Canada.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:47 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Monday:  AO slightly negative. NAO continues to go from very negative and cool into the start of week 2 to increasing rapidly back to 0 at the end and possibly foretell a much warmer pattern in the East. PNA mostly positive.

Tuesday: The big deal has been the NAO. It continues to go from very negative and cool and rapidly increasing to 0 as the pattern shifts to much warmer from the heat ridge moving to the east.  AO slightly negative. PNA goes from very positive, to dropping towards 0 with the new pattern featuring a trough out West.(trough West/ridge East couplet)

Wednesday: AO near 0. PNA drops from very positive. NAO continues from very low to recovering back to 0 and some are positive............warming in the East week 2!!!

Thursday: AO a bit negative. PNA drops from positive. NAO comes from very low to almost 0. For sure warming in week 2 but what then after that?

Friday: Indices not quite as warm at the end of 2 weeks. AO negative. NAO still increases from negative but stays negative. PNA is mostly positive.

Saturday: AO is negative. NAO is negative and increasing a bit but now STAYS negative thru the end of 2 weeks, which is not as warm as the previous few days for that period. PNA is positive and dropping a bit. 

Sunday: Potentially cooler implications for the end of the month. AO is still negative but the NAO stays negative now and at the end of 2 weeks, some solutions are decreasing the NAO value again. PNA stays a bit positive. 

Monday: Big changes again, this time, possibly hotter.  NAO increases to near 0 at the end of week 2 with a huge spread above and below(between models) indicating uncertainty.  PNA goes from very positive, dropping to near 0........more favorable for heat in the eastern part of the country than yesterday.

Tuesday: AO a bit negative. NAO increases from negative to near zero with less spread than yesterday. PNA drops from positive to near zero. Indices near zero are not that powerful but warmth is favored.

Wednesday: AO negative. NAO increases to zero, then a big spread at the end of 2 weeks with slight lower bias. PNA drops towards 0 from being positive.

Thursday: AO negative. NAO increases to above zero now(with heat and upper ridging East) but then drops down a bit at the end of 2 weeks. PNA falls late in week 2.

By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 

Last Wednesday: NWS should be warming the East up much more...........cooler West. Big rains now mainly in the early parts of the 6-10 day, possibly drying up in the 8-14 day.

Thursday: NWS came around yesterday to bringing in the heat. More heat today in these outlooks. How much rain is the huge question. Rains might become scarce again in some locations but there is also a case to be make for active weather in the north.

Friday: Lots of heat. Dry under the heat ridge, wet around, over the top of and around its periphery.

Saturday: Should be hot and pretty dry in a large area. Band of higher precip in there with uncertainty.

Sunday: Still lots of heat with high confidence. A large dry area, with a zone of green, probably favoring the Upper Midwest.

Monday: Still lots of heat but with more rain.

Tuesday: Very warm/hot and wet again.

Wednesday: Very warm/hot and wet again!!

Thursday: Very Warm/Hot and wet again!

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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September Outlook, just updated:

OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: August 15, 2019
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 15, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Previous posts:

                Re: Weather Monday            

                       By pll - Aug. 12, 2019, 5:36 p.m.            


Rain was a big Zero here in EcILL. Got the sidewalk wet but that was it havent had more than .25 since July 3



                Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - Aug. 12, 2019, 11:39 p.m.            


Sorry to hear that pll.

Must have been frustrating with them getting so close.

We got .20.........better than nothing.

These current storms may stay just north of you or, if you get real lucky, might curve a bit farther south and hit you.

Lastest at midnight is them curving south. Let me know how much rain you get.



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By pll - Aug. 13, 2019, 6:17 a.m.            





                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - Aug. 13, 2019, 6:36 a.m.            



Congrats pll!. Some of that  wonderful rain is hitting us farther southeast.




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - Aug. 13, 2019, 3:13 p.m.            


We got 1.6 here early this morning.

Perfect, especially since I'm digging up a huge stump and root system that is intertwined in the irrigation system that has to be repaired when done and this buys me some time before needing to use it.



                           By mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2019, 11:54 a.m.            


big blob of rain finally made into Indiana across the Ill state line last nite.......we got 12 drops and poof it was gone about 1 am



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By metmike - Aug. 14, 2019, 12:56 p.m.            



Sorry to hear that you missed the rain.

The pattern is changing though. Instead of a system that passes thru and you either get rains or don't, then wait a long time, it looks like a system that stalls and keeps rain chances elevated for an extended period.........starting late this week for you.